US embassy cable - 05DJIBOUTI31

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 DJIBOUTI 000031 
 
SIPDIS 
 
State for AF, AF/E, USAID. PARIS/LONDON for AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ECON, ETRD, EAID, PHUM, SCUL, DJ 
SUBJECT: DJIBOUTI REGIONS PROFILE 
 
1. (U) SUMMARY: The great economic disparity between the capital, 
Djibouti city, and the regions outside Djibouti's capital is 
a major concern to the regions' inhabitants. This disparity 
led to a civil war in the early 1990's and continues to 
greatly affect the country's politics. Post constructed this 
regional profile of Djibouti to better understand the 
development issues most important to the populations in each 
of Djibouti's four existing districts as both presidential 
and regional elections approach in 2005. It is divided into 
three parts: A snapshot of each district, district living 
conditions, and political expectations and leanings. END 
SUMMARY 
 
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SNAPSHOTS OF THE DISTRICTS 
--------------------------- 
 
2. (U) Djibouti is currently divided into the capital city, 
commonly referred to as Djibouti-ville, and four regional 
districts: Ali-Sabieh and Dikhil in the south, and Obock and 
Tadjourah in the north. Vital statistics follow: 
 
 
Ali Sabieh 
Location: South 
Population: 18 589 
Major economic activity: Trade, agriculture and industry. 
Tribe/sub-tribe: Issa/Fourlaba 
 
Dikhil 
Location: South 
Population: 19 592 
Major economic activities: Agriculture, livestock and tourism 
(underdeveloped) 
Tribe/sub-tribe: Issa/Odahgob, Afar/AdaiRasoul 
 
Tadjourah 
Location: North 
Population: 12 471 
Major economic activities: Agriculture and tourism 
Tribe/sub-tribe: Afar/Hassobas 
 
Obock 
Location: North 
Population: 3 297 
Major economic activities: Fishing and tourism 
Tribe/sub-tribe: Afar/Adai'li 
 
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Living Conditions 
------------------- 
3. (U) The great economic disparity between Djibouti's capital 
and its internal regions affects the regions' populations to 
an extreme degree. The majority of economic activity in 
Djibouti is concentrated in and around the capital, Djibouti 
City. There is a limited overall benefit from trucking 
routes to Ethiopia that pass through the districts of Dikhil 
and Ali-Sabieh. Social sectors, such as education and 
health, are also more developed in the capital. The 
population of Djibouti is estimated at around 594,000 with 
67 percent concentrated in the capital city. The population 
of the four regions together total less than nine percent of 
the total population of Djibouti. The sparse population in 
the districts is an excellent indicator of the 
underdevelopment of the outlying regions, which in return 
reveals the major impetus for the majority of the population 
to seek subsistence in the capital city. 
 
4. (U) In general, the districts' output in the national economy 
is very low. Rarely do products go from the regions to the 
capital. On the contrary, most of the needs of the 
district's population are brought from the capital city, 
Djibouti-ville. Until recently, there was no industry or 
manufacturing present outside the capital. In 2004, the 
government began projects to bring manufacturing and 
production to the district of Ali-Sabieh in order to court 
political favor. A water bottling plant was inaugurated in 
early 2004 and a cement production facility has started. To 
date, the production level of these two plants has been 
negligible. 
 
5. (U) Extreme poverty, unemployment and access to potable water 
of utmost concern for most of the district residents. 
Unemployment rates range from 61 percent in Obock and 
Tadjourah to 71 percent in Ali-Sabieh, the same district 
that hosted the three biggest public and semi-public 
investments in the districts during recent years. Despite 
some recent investment in the districts, there has not been 
a strategy to ensure the local population is benefiting from 
jobs created by the new ventures. Even among districts, the 
disparity of employment opportunities is growing. All recent 
investments have been centered on the southern districts of 
the country, due to its rich soil and unpredictable 
political leanings. Little government attention has been 
directed toward the northern region, and as a result there 
are no viable jobs available in these districts. Most 
northern residents eke out a living in the struggling 
fishing industry or subsist as goat, camel or sheep herders 
and as small-scale farmers of date palms or vegetables. 
Poverty is not declining in the regions despite the 
establishment of civil society organizations that claim to 
struggle against it. 
 
5. (U) Even with a massive national effort to spread employment 
opportunities across the districts, serious obstacles 
confront any attempts at progress. One of the most-dire 
needs in all of the districts is water. Nearly 47 percent of 
the inhabitants of Tadjourah do not have access to potable 
drinking water. The same is true for 27.5 percent of the 
population of Obock; 21 percent of Dikhil and 5.5 percent of 
Ali-Sabieh. The amount of the total family budget spent on 
food is nearly 70 percent in all four of the districts. Most 
people who live outside the city feel it is useless to talk 
of economic opportunities or progress until their most basic 
needs can be assured. 
 
6. (U) Access to health care and education are also severely 
lacking in most areas of the country outside the capital 
city. In each region, there is one health center and one 
primary education establishment, located in the district 
capital. Primary education is compulsory but access to 
schools is very difficult. In the country as a whole, the 
current education system has the physical capacity to 
accommodate only 30 percent of school-aged children. The 
primary education rate in the districts is roughly the same 
in all four regions, ranging between 55 and 60 percent. The 
percentage of children that go on to secondary school is 
significantly lower due mainly to the necessity for children 
to go to the capital to study the university preparatory or 
vocational curriculums. 
 
7. (U) Daily lifestyle well-illustrates wealth in Djiboutian 
society. For those in the capital city, and those in the 
districts that are not nomadic, home-ownership is the main 
indicator of wealth. For the nomadic portion of the 
population, wealth rests with the size of the herd. Nomads 
value their animals in a hierarchy. The goat, which provides 
milk and meat for the family, is the most valued, followed 
in descending order by cows, sheep and camels. If all the 
country's wealth were measured by housing, Obock would be 
the poorest district with only 575 houses for an estimated 
population of 3,200 people. Under this measure, the two 
richest districts would be the southern district of Ali- 
Sabieh (2969 houses for 18,500 people) and Dikhil (2829 for 
19,592 people). 
 
8. (U) The economic activities of the different districts have a 
common base in agricultural subsistence. However, the extent 
of agriculture practiced and the variety of other activities 
possible depend upon the district. Activities in the 
northern regions, which have drier climate but abundant 
coastline, are concentrated around fishing. The northern 
district of Tadjourah also has two tourist sites that 
generate small amount of income. The southern districts have 
comparatively fertile soil, which leads many to concentrate 
their activities in farming and herding. Raising livestock 
is a major activity for the nomads in the southern region. 
Its success is by genetic mixing of the herds caused when 
livestock from Somaliland pass through the region in search 
of grazing. Although Dikhil is the less-fertile southern 
district, it has a history of being comparatively wealthy, 
thanks to smuggling. Dikhil was once the hub for all 
smuggled goods coming from Ethiopia and in the early 1980's, 
was the most flourishing region, after the capital. However, 
in recent years, the smuggling operations have shifted their 
focus to the Djibouti-Somaliland border and the smuggling in 
Dikhil has decreased. In absence of smuggling, the district 
of Dikhil has quickly become one of the poorest regions of 
Djibouti. 
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POLITICS 
---------- 
 
9. (U) The population in the four districts has few political 
expectations from elected officials. Each district is more 
focused on basic needs than on political maneuverings. In 
Ali-Sabieh the issue is water scarcity, which prevents 
development of any kind. (Note: Water scarcity is one of the 
biggest challenges everywhere in the country, including the 
capital city. End note). The district of Dikhil is concerned 
primarily with women's health and the availability of 
veterinarians (since the district's livelihood is derived 
mainly from livestock). Health problems and lack of road 
connections, especially with Ethiopia, remain the biggest 
challenge for Tadjourah in its search for development. The 
population of Obock is seeking water and rehabilitation of 
roads to connect Obock with Eritrea and the other cities 
within Djibouti to improve quality of life. 
 
10. (U) The regional councils are responsible for all matters 
concerning the wellbeing of each district's population. They 
are currently appointed by the central government, are 
comprised of 14 members and are headed by the District 
Commissar (DC). The councils each have a budget of 50 
million FD (280 000 USD), which is currently supplied by the 
central treasury. The DC heads the provisional regional 
council, controls law enforcement agents, and has command of 
military forces assigned to the district. He also signs 
birth certificates and conducts primary immigration 
investigations. The DC is not autonomous, however.  He is a 
servant of the ruling party and his investigations are often 
directed by the central administration. The role of the DC 
is much more significant as elections approach because of 
his duties as the subordinate of the Ministry of Interior. 
He gives primary authorization to identity cards and can 
approve ad hoc voting cards. Once implemented, the new 
decentralization law will restrain functions of the DC and 
limit has portfolio to merely a representative of the State. 
The administrative and financial control of the regions will 
be turned over to elected regional councils. 
 
11. (U) Two tribes predominate Djibouti's social and political 
scene. The northern districts, Tadjourah and Obock, are 
inhabited by Afars. Ali-Sabieh is comprised mainly of Issas. 
Dikhil is a rare combination of all national communities: 
Afar, Issa, Arabs and others. For this reason it is called 
the "Town of Unity". The Issa community is generally viewed 
as more open to modernization, while the more traditional 
Afars are often considered more reluctant to change. 
 
12. (U) In order to analyze the potential outcomes for the 2005 
presidential elections, it helps to examine details from the 
most recent elections: 
 
Ali-Sabieh: In the presidential election of 1999, Moussa Ahmed 
Idriss opposed Ismail Omar Guelleh. Guelleh won the 
elections by 74 percent; however, the majority in Ali-Sabieh 
voted against Guelleh's ruling party, an unprecedented case 
in Djibouti elections' history. One explanation for this 
might be that the district is known as "rebellious," and has 
a general dislike for directives coming from the capital. 
Because of this, Ali-Sabieh is considered by politicians to 
be unpredictable and problematic. This might be one of the 
reasons the political power focuses development projects in 
that area, over other regions. The tribal composition of Ali- 
Sabieh may also be a factor. The majority of Ali-Sabieh 
inhabitants are Issa, sub-clan Fourlaba. This sub-clan is 
known to be the most forceful rival to Mamassan sub-clan, to 
which Guelleh's family belongs. In 1999, Guelleh's rival, 
Moussa Ahmed Idriss -- an Issa, but not a Mamassan -- 
succeeded in winning the vote in Ali Sabieh. 
 
Tadjourah: In the legislative elections of 2003, the opposition 
Union for Democratic Alternance (UAD) coalition made its 
strongest showing in Tadjourah. The UAD scored 18 bureaus 
out of 27, winning nearly all the Tadjourah-ville vote, as 
well as that of some of big villages of the district. The 
Minister of the Interior explained that the Guelleh- 
coalition won the district, nevertheless, because the nine 
bureaus it won were theoretically the most populous. 
 
Dikhil: Dikhil generally votes on the side of the ruling party in 
both presidential and legislative elections. As a peaceful 
and quiet district where Afars, Issas and other communities 
get along well with each other, it has thus far been adverse 
to conflict and has in the past voted in favor of the ruling 
party. 
 
Obock: Obock is unpredictable, as it does not belong to one 
particular Afar community. The district of Obock was the 
hometown of the late Ahmed Dini, a popular opposition leader 
who was exiled from Djibouti for 22-years1. Life in the 
region is difficult, with poverty so firmly established that 
voters do not believe their situation will change, no matter 
the promises made during campaigns. That makes the region 
more likely to vote against the ruling party than in other 
districts, as in the 2003 legislative election, where the 
UAD scored highly, walking off with most of the votes cast. 
13. (U) In conclusion, the political leanings of the districts 
are fluid depending, on each administration's promises and 
the level of discontent among the people at any given point 
in time. In that regard, no standardized prediction f 
district leanings in the 2005 presidential election can be 
made. 
 
14. (U) Khartoum minimize considered. 
 
_______________________________ 
1  I think it's preferable to be erased.