US embassy cable - 05VIENNA45

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 VIENNA 000045 
 
SIPDIS 
 
PASS TREASURY FOR OASIA/ICB/VIMAL ATUKORALA 
TREASURY ALSO FOR OCC/EILEEN SIEGEL 
TREASURY ALSO PASS FEDERAL RESERVE 
USDOC PASS TO OITA 
USDOC FOR 4212/MAC/EUR/OWE/PDACHER 
PARIS FOR USOECD 
FRANKFURT FOR TREASURY 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON, EFIN, ELAB, AU, EUN 
SUBJECT: AUSTRIA'S 2005/06 GROWTH OUTLOOK ?EAN 
 
REFS:  (A) 04 VIENNA 3647; (B) 04 VIENNA 0273 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
1.  Austria's GDP grew 2.0% in 2004, driven by booming 
exports in response to strong world economic growth, 
according to two leading Austrian economic institutes. 
The institutes now forecast real GDP growth of 2.2-2.3% 
in 2005 and 2.2-2.4% in 2006. The strong Euro, high oil 
prices and the U.S. twin deficits represent downward 
risks for the 2005/2006 forecasts.  However, economists 
do not see recession as a possibility.  The recovery is 
still export-driven.  Investments should recover only in 
2006, but private consumptions should pick up soon when 
the 2005 income and corporate tax cuts take effect. 
These tax cuts will cause the public sector deficit to 
rise from 1.3% of GDP in 2004 to at least 1.9% in 2005. 
The GoA's 2006 deficit goal is 1.7%.  Employment growth 
in both 2005 and 2006 will have little effect on the 
unemployment rate of 4.2-4.4%.  Inflation will tick up to 
1.9-2.3% in 2005 and ease to 1.7% in 2006.  END SUMMARY. 
 
MODERATE 2004 RECOVERY 
---------------------- 
2.  The Austrian Institute for Economic Research (WIFO) 
and Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS) recently 
presented their latest 2004 estimates, revised 
projections for 2005 and a first forecast for 2006.  For 
2004, WIFO and IHS maintained their estimate from 
September for GDP growth of 2.0%.  They agreed that the 
Austrian economy had gained momentum in 2004, mainly as a 
result of booming exports to Germany, the U.S., the ten 
new EU member states, and some Asian markets.  However, 
the strong Euro and higher oil prices dampened this 
momentum.  While the GoA's extension of the investment 
premium to the end of 2004 (ref A) stimulated 
investments, private consumption remained sluggish. 
Austria's 2.0% growth rate in 2004 was moderate compared 
to previous cyclical upswings and lagged behind the world 
economic growth of more than 5.0%.  WIFO Deputy Director 
Ewald Walterskirchen declared that "this is not yet an 
upswing, which would require at least 3.0% growth." 
 
CONTINUED MODERATE GROWTH IN 2005 AND 2006 
------------------------------------------ 
3.  For 2005, the institutes reduced their growth 
expectations by a quarter of a percentage point, because 
of the dampening effects of the strong Euro.  They now 
project growth of 2.2-2.3% in 2005.  In 2006, all demand 
aggregates should contribute more evenly to economic 
growth of 2.3-2.4%.  However, this implies a lower Euro 
exchange rate and lower oil prices.  The 2005 forecast 
reflects an estimated .25% boost to growth from the GoA's 
2005 income and corporate tax cut (ref B).  Less robust 
global economic growth, in combination with a strong 
Euro, will slow Austrian export growth.  Investments will 
grow moderately in 2005, since many companies moved 
forward investments in 2004 in response to the GoA's 
investment premium (ref A).  However, economists predict 
investments will pick up again in 2006 because of 
necessary investments in new technologies and record high 
business profits.  An improved employment outlook and the 
income tax cut should stimulate consumption in both 2005 
and 2006.  The savings rate will rise from 8.1% of 
disposable incomes in 2004 to around 8.5% in 2005/2006, 
according to the Austrian National Bank (ANB). 
 
4.  The WIFO and IHS 2005/2006 forecasts are in line with 
recent ANB projections for real GDP growth of 2.3% in 
2005 and 2.1% in 2006; OECD growth projections of 2.3% 
and 2.6%, respectively; and European Commission 
predictions of 2.4% growth for both years. 
 
5.  An October 2004 Industrialists' Association poll 
revealed less optimism among members, compared to 
previous polls, regarding the business outlook over the 
next six months.  This seems to confirm analysts' 
prediction that the peak of the industrial cycle is 
already over.  A year-end public opinion poll revealed 
that the Austrians have become more pessimistic about the 
economic future:  36% view the coming year "with 
skepticism" (compared to 33% at year-end 2003); 35% "with 
confidence" (down from 43%); and 29% expect no change. 
 
RISKS ?XCHANGE RATES, OIL PRICES, U.S. TWIN DEFICITS 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
6.  WIFO Director Helmut Kramer listed several exogenous 
factors that could negatively affect growth:  unfavorable 
exchange rates; higher oil prices; and the twin deficits 
in the U.S.  Kramer predicted Austrian exports would 
continue to grow, but at a slower pace than in 2004. 
Nevertheless, Kramer cautioned that continued growth is 
dependent on stable oil prices and a halt in the dollar's 
slide vis-`-vis the Euro.  IHS director Bernhard Felderer 
identified exchange rate developments as the greatest 
risk for the 2005/2006 forecasts.  Despite these 
uncertainties, neither institute foresees a scenario of 
recession. 
 
7.  The ANB also considers exchange rates and oil prices 
as the greatest risks to its 2005/2006 forecasts.  The 
ANB calculated that a 10% increase in the Euro exchange 
rate in 2005 would reduce Austrian GDP growth by 0.1% in 
both 2005 and 2006.  A 20% increase in oil prices in 2005 
would reduce Austrian GDP growth by 0.15% and 0.25% in 
2005 and 2006, respectively. 
 
ASSUMPTIONS FOR GROWTH FORECASTS 
-------------------------------- 
8.  The institutes based their 2005/2006 forecasts on the 
following assumptions: 
-- U.S. economic growth of 2.8-3.3% in 2005 and 3.1-3.5% 
in 2006; 
-- Euro area growth of 1.7% in 2005 and 2.2% in 2006; 
-- EU-25 growth of 2.0% in 2005 and 2.3% in 2006; 
-- German growth of 1.3% in 2005 and 1.6-1.8% in 2006; 
-- oil prices of USD 40-42 per barrel in 2005 and USD 38- 
40 in 2006; and 
-- dollar/Euro exchange rates of 0.75-0.76 in 2005 and 
0.76-0.78 in 2006. 
 
INFLATION TO TICK UP, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE STICKY 
--------------------------------------------- - 
9.  In 2004, one quarter of Austria's 2.0% inflation rate 
was due to higher oil prices.  WIFO has revised its 2005 
inflation forecast upward to 2.3%, due to higher energy 
prices, a rise in the tobacco tax and rising housing 
costs.  For 2006, the institutes expect inflationary 
pressures to ease to 1.7%.  However, this decrease in 
inflation implies a decline in the price of oil to USD 
38-40 per barrel in 2006. 
 
10.  WIFO and IHS predict no significant reduction in the 
unemployment rate.  Rising labor demand will be offset by 
a continued influx of foreign labor, measures to raise 
the retirement age, and more women entering the labor 
market.  Thus, despite a marked increase in employment in 
both 2005 and 2006, the projected 2005 unemployment rate 
of 4.4% is only marginally lower than the expected rate 
of 4.5% in 2004.  The unemployment rate should again 
decrease marginally to 4.2-4.3% in 2006. 
 
PUBLIC DEFICIT GROWING 
---------------------- 
11.  Due to the investment premium extension, tax revenue 
shortfalls and a lower profit transfer from the ANB, the 
institutes estimate the total public sector deficit will 
be 1.3% of GDP in 2004.  In 2005, the income and 
corporate tax cuts will push the deficit to at least 
1.9%.  In a November 2004 update of its 2004-2008 
Stability Program, the GoA predicted a 1.7% deficit in 
2006, a 0.8% deficit in 2007, and a balanced budget in 
2008.  WIFO Director Kramer noted the 1.7% deficit 
projection for 2006 acknowledges that there will most 
likely be increased spending in an election year.  Kramer 
doubted that the GoA would balance the budget in 2008, 
noting this would require further austerity measures. 
 
12.  Statistical Annex 
 
 
                      Austrian Economic Indicators 
                   (percent change from previous year, 
                        unless otherwise stated) 
 
                    WIFO     IHS      WIFO      IHS 
                    project. project. project.  project. 
                    2005     2005     2006      2006 
Real terms: 
GDP                  2.2      2.3        2.3      2.4 
Manufacturing        4.0      n/a        3.7      n/a 
Private consumption  2.1      2.5        2.2      2.1 
Public consumption   0.5      0.2        0.8      0.2 
Investment           1.6      2.4        2.7      3.1 
Exports of goods     6.0      6.6        7.0      7.1 
Imports of goods     6.0      5.9        7.1      6.2 
 
Nominal Euro billion 
equivalents: 
GDP                244.7    246.0      254.3    256.0 
 
Other indices: 
GDP deflator         2.3      2.0        1.6      1.7 
Consumer prices      2.3      1.9        1.7      1.7 
Unemployment rate    4.4      4.4        4.2      4.3 
Current account (in 
    percent of GDP) -1.0     -0.1       -1.1     -0.4 
Exchange rate for 
    US$ 1.00 in Euro 
                    0.75     0.76       0.78     0.76 
 
BROWN