US embassy cable - 05MAPUTO51

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MAPUTO 000051 
 
SIPDIS 
FOR AF/S 
DEPT PASS TO MCC WASHINGTON DC 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/07/2010 
TAGS: KDEM, MZ, PGOV, PREL, Elections 04, RENAMO 
SUBJECT: RENAMO TO APPEAL LEGISLATIVE RESULTS TO 
CONSTITUTIONAL COUNCIL 
 
REF: 04 MAPUTO 1645 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Classified by Charge James Dudley, Reason 1.4(D) 
 
1. (C) Summary and Comment: After the CNE denied its 
challenge to the election results, RENAMO will appeal to the 
Constitutional Council. Party elections director Eduardo 
Namburete told Charge that Dhlakama would stop emphasizing 
his (comment: unrealistic) belief that he had won the 
presidential election and would appeal only the legislative 
election results. If the Council rejects the appeal out of 
hand, RENAMO will refuse to take its seats in the National 
Assembly. Charge encouraged the party to reconsider and 
responded to claims that RENAMO might not be able to control 
its unhappy public by saying that any resort to violence 
would be irresponsible. Namburete,s estimate that fraud 
cost RENAMO 35-40 seats in the Assembly is wildly 
unrealistic. Post believes that the Council will deny 
RENAMO,s appeal and that RENAMO will in the end take its 
seats in the Assembly. End Summary and Comment. 
 
2. (SBU) On January 5, the National Elections Commission 
(CNE) denied RENAMO,s challenge to the results of the 
December general elections as expected. On January 6, RENAMO 
elections director Eduardo Namburete and two colleagues 
called on the Charge and econ/pol section head to explain 
RENAMO,s plan to make its last appeal, to the Constitutional 
Council, on January 7. The meeting was part of the 
delegation,s visits with several embassies on instructions 
from RENAMO leader Afonso Dhlakama. The Council must respond 
to RENAMO's claim within five days of submission, though it 
has up to 40 days from the date the election results were 
announced (Dec. 21) to announce its overall verdict on the 
elections. 
 
3. (SBU) Namburete reported that Dhlakama still believes that 
he won the race for president, but "in the interests of 
peace," and recognizing that international and domestic 
observers believed otherwise, had decided to stop emphasizing 
this and would have the party appeal only the legislative 
elections. Namburete estimated that fraud had cost the party 
35-40 seats in the National Assembly. If the Council threw 
out the claims "without comment," as he said the CNE had 
done, RENAMO would refuse to take its seats in the Assembly 
and would protest peacefully. 
 
4. (SBU) Namburete argued that returning to Parliament would 
be tantamount to accepting the validity of the elections, 
something that RENAMO could not do. He said that after the 
1999 elections (note: which were much closer, and also marred 
by allegations of fraud) RENAMO played along at the urging of 
the international community and returned to Parliament to 
avoid an open rupture with FRELIMO. Namburete explained that 
this tactic had gotten the party nowhere. He promised that 
RENAMO would urge all of its members to act in accordance 
with the law in the event the Council rejected its claims, 
but warned that the party would have difficulty controlling 
"the people." 
 
5. (SBU) Namburete gave the impression that he expected some 
of the smaller party representatives who had won seven seats 
in coalition with RENAMO to take their seats. He also 
indicated that some or all of these representatives could be 
convinced to vote with FRELIMO; if all did, FRELIMO would be 
able to change the Constitution, a situation that Namburete 
described as meaning a return to a one-party dictatorship. 
 
6. (SBU) The Charge welcomed the news that Dhlakama would 
deemphasize his belief that irregularities had prevented him 
from winning the presidency. He expressed doubt about 
RENAMO,s estimate of the number of seats being affected and 
encouraged the party to release to the press its own parallel 
count and its analysis that irregularities had cost it 35-40 
seats. He urged Namburete and RENAMO to reconsider the 
threat to boycott the Assembly, noting that RENAMO would be 
giving up its voice on legislation. Econ/Pol section head 
added that voters who elected RENAMO,s 83 members of the 
Assembly might also feel that the party was not representing 
them. Charge emphasized that any resort to violence in 
demonstrations or elsewhere would be irresponsible. 
 
7. (C) Comment: The Constitutional Council is responsive to 
FRELIMO and likely will reject most, and possibly all, of 
RENAMO's claims, many of which are implausible. Although 
Namburete said the CNE rejected RENAMO,s claims without 
comment, press reports indicate that the CNE did throw out 
some of the most implausible vote tally sheets and referred 
some for possible prosecution. Namburete's estimate that 
RENAMO should have received 35-40 additional seats, almost 
enough to give it control of the Assembly, is a fantasy. 
Observer missions and independent journalists have charged 
that irregularities likely increased FRELIMO,s 
representation in the Assembly, but none has said that this 
affected more than a few seats. 
 
8. (C) Comment continued: Post doubts that RENAMO will carry 
out the threat to boycott the Assembly; it did not do so 
after the much closer 1999 elections despite making a similar 
threat. If the party,s deputies do not take their seats 
within 45 days of the opening of the Assembly, they will lose 
their salaries and benefits and the party will lose financial 
benefits. The argument that the party might not be able to 
control unhappy supporters also seems implausible, as much of 
RENAMO,s base apparently did not even bother to vote. On 
January 9, RENAMO will hold a meeting of its central 
committee and a rally in its stronghold of Beira. This 
should shed some light on Dhlakama,s and the party,s 
strategy for responding to their poor electoral showing. End 
Comment. 
DUDLEY