US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI45

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000045 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/TC 
DEPT PASS AIT/W 
FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/06/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT: TAIWAN LY SPEAKER ON CROSS-STRAIT PROPOSAL, 
PREMIER AND SPEAKER'S ELECTION 
 
Classified By: ROBERT W. FORDEN, AIT KAOHSIUNG PRINCIPAL OFFICER. 
REASON:  1.4(B/D). 
 
1.  (C) January 2 Taiwan Legislative Yuan (LY) Speaker Wang 
Jin-pyng told AIT/K Branch Chief that he saw little hope for 
his proposal to lead a LY delegation to Beijing, as he 
expected it to be blocked by President Chen.  Wang had 
announced December 31 that, if he were re-elected Speaker, he 
would support creation of an LY cross-Strait issues task 
force and would lead a delegation of task force members to 
Beijing to discuss cross-Strait issues.  Despite what he 
expected would be strong opposition from the ruling party, 
Wang said he would push for legislation to create the task 
force and create a stronger role for the LY to push for 
progress on cross-Strait issues, given President Chen's 
failure to do so. 
 
2.  (C) Wang was optimistic about his chances of being 
re-elected LY Speaker.  He said the  ruling Democratic 
Progressive Party (DPP) had not yet made a decision on 
whether it would field its own candidate for the position. 
However, given the opposition Pan Blue's "24 or 25 seat 
advantage" in the LY, Wang said, he was confident of 
re-election (Note: it is unclear where Wang's seat total 
comes from -- the Pan Blue holds only 114 of the 225 LY seats 
and, even if all 10 independent LY members voted with the Pan 
Blue, it would represent a 23-seat advantage over the 101 Pan 
Green LY total.  End Note). 
 
3.  (C) Separately, Wang commented that it looked likely that 
President Chen would appoint Kaohsiung Mayor Frank Hsieh 
(Chang-ting) as Premier later this month, replacing incumbent 
Premier Yu Shyi-kun.  Wang, however, did not believe Hsieh 
would make a strong Premier, as Hsieh lacked experience at 
the central government level (Note:  Hsieh has served as 
Kaohsiung Mayor, LY member, Chairman of the DPP and was the 
DPP's vice presidential candidate in 1996, but has never held 
a central government position.  End Note).  Wang also did not 
expect Hsieh to work better with the opposition parties than 
Premier Yu.  While many claimed Hsieh's effective 
coordination with the opposition parties in the Kaohsiung 
City Council demonstrated that Hsieh could build inter-party 
coalitions, Wang argued the LY would be a much different game 
for Hsieh. 
 
 
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Comment 
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4.  (C)  Wang's candid assessment that DPP opposition would 
likely kill his proposal to lead an LY task force delegation 
to Beijing is likely correct.  It also suggests that the 
proposal primarily is a gambit in his quest to hold on to his 
job.  (The four conditions Wang prescribed for a mainland 
visit make it a highly unlikely prospect anyway.)  This high 
profile effort may also reflect his early push for a more 
ambitious goal -- the KMT presidential nomination in 2008, as 
scholar and KMT-intimate Emile Sheng told AIT January 3. 
Nevertheless, if Wang does follow through with promised 
legislation carving out a more active cross-Strait role for 
the LY, it could stimulate broader debate and maybe even new 
approaches to the cross-Strait stalemate.  Wang's optimism 
about re-election as Speaker suggests he is confident he has 
pinned down sufficient Pan Blue support, which indicates he 
has confirmed that the PFP will support him despite continued 
sniping.  Wang has been criticized by some within the Pan 
Blue, especially "deep Blue" members who oppose the "ben tu 
pai" (Taiwan faction) and who see Wang as a weak leader.  The 
lack of a strong alternative candidate is probably Wang's 
greatest strength in holding onto his position.  It remains 
unclear whether the ruling party will attempt to unseat Wang 
with a compromise candidate, perhaps by offering a counter 
deal to the PFP. 
 
5.  (C)  Speculation on the appointment of Mayor Hsieh to the 
Premiership has been strong in the media for some time. 
However, last week's announcement that another leading 
prospect to succeed President Chen in 2008, Presidential 
Office Secretary General Su Tseng-chang, would run for DPP 
Chairman with Chen's blessing, has left Hsieh as the leading 
and logical candidate -- i.e., would balance successor 
candidates and not force Chen to play his hand this early in 
his lame-duck term.  Wang's negative assessment of Hsieh is 
not suprising; in AIT's meetings with Wang over the years, 
Wang has been uniformally negative on all leading ruling 
party figures, not a few of whom return the favor. 
 
FORDEN 
 
PAAL