US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV102

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000102 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/06/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, IS, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, GOI INTERNAL, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS, ECONOMY AND FINANCE 
SUBJECT: GAZA DISENGAGEMENT: WITH NEW GOVERNMENT, SHARON TO 
EXPEDITE VOTES ON BUDGET, DISENGAGEMENT 
 
REF: TEL AVIV 70 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Norman Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary: The three-month trial period for which the 
United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party has agreed to enter a 
coalition with Likud and Labor gives Prime Minister Sharon 
the time -- and majorities in the relevant bodies -- to : 
 
-- establish a 66-MK majority government, probably as early 
as January 10; 
-- pass the budget in three quick Knesset readings; 
-- pass the remaining two Knesset readings for disengagement 
implementing legislation; 
-- and push through the Cabinet the votes on each of the 
evacuation plan's four phases. 
 
End summary. 
 
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Sharon on the Fast Track 
------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) The January 5 decision by UTJ spiritual leader Rabbi 
Shalom Elyashiv to join a coalition with Likud and Labor, 
albeit for a three-month trial period without ministerial 
portfolios, allows Prime Minister Sharon to seek Knesset 
approval of a new government as early as January 10.  Likud, 
Labor and the UTJ will likely sign their respective coalition 
agreements January 6, with Cabinet approval, required for 
expanding the coalition, on January 9.  Sharon's 13-member 
all-Likud Cabinet is expected to approve the expanded 
government with a clear majority in favor since UTJ's 
inclusion meets the demands of Likud MKs for a religious 
party in the government.  He can then submit the signed 
agreements to the Knesset January 9 to meet the 
legally-mandated 24-hour consideration period that would 
allow the Knesset to vote on the new government January 10. 
 
3.  (C) In the Knesset, where no one wants to see early 
elections and where the majority supports disengagement, 
Sharon can count on at least 27 of the 40 Likud MKs to 
support the new government, in addition to Labor's 19, Am 
Ehad's two, UTJ's five, and two maverick MKs, for a total of 
55 out of the Knesset's 120 MKs.  United Arab List MK Taleb 
el-Sana told poloff January 6 that his two-member party would 
lend its votes to ensure a majority for Sharon's new 
government.  He said that an MK from the Israeli-Arab Hadash 
party said his party may also provide a safety net.  Or 
Pearl, assistant to Likud disengagement foe MK Ehud Yatom, 
told poloff January 6 that he is certain that several of the 
13 Likud MKs who oppose disengagement will either abstain in 
the vote or absent themselves to ensure that Sharon wins the 
simple majority for a new government.  Many of the rebels are 
first-term MKs who could lose their seats in new elections. 
Sharon can also count on left-wing Yahad's six MKs to 
abstain, something that party has already said it would do to 
prevent Sharon's government from falling and thereby ensure 
implementation of the disengagement plan. 
 
4.  (C) Sharon has also indicated he is ready to re-introduce 
his stalled budget January 10, after the Knesset votes on the 
new government, and then move the budget through three speedy 
readings.  Sharon also plans to advance the first Cabinet 
vote on evacuation to January from March. 
 
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UTJ: Actions Speak Louder than Words 
------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Elyashiv's decision to sign on to the coalition for 
only a three-month trial period illustrates the distrust felt 
by the 94-year-old Rabbi over whether Sharon -- who was 
willing to sit in a coalition with the arch-secular Shinui 
party -- will make good on commitments contained in the 
coalition agreement.  These commitments include easily 
reversible assurances that Haredi schools will not be 
subjected to upcoming educational reforms recommended by the 
Dovrat Committee (reftel).  Elyashiv decided that during the 
three months UTJ would not accept any government positions. 
Two UTJ MKs -- Yaakov Litzman and Meir Porush -- who belong 
to one of the two factions that comprise  UTJ, however, have 
indicated they are not subject to Elyashiv's directive since 
he is not the rabbi for their faction.  They reportedly 
intend to take the positions offered the UTJ as part of the 
coalition agreement: Litzman to chair the Knesset Finance 
Committee and Porush aims to serve as deputy transportation 
minister. 
 
6.  (C) Without any Cabinet seats, UTJ will not participate 
in any upcoming Cabinet votes on disengagement 
implementation, but by joining a coalition that the media has 
referred to as "the disengagement government," media pundits 
are assessing that UTJ has lent its stamp of approval to 
Sharon's unilateral withdrawal plan.  Yedioth Ahronoth 
journalist Sever Plotzker wrote January 6 that: "From a 
political standpoint, the permission of the elderly rabbi is 
contingent on receiving further financial and social 
benefits,...but from a foreign policy standpoint, the 
position taken by the leaders of ultra-Orthodox Jewry is 
clear: In favor of the withdrawal from Gaza and evacuation of 
all its settlements." 
 
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