US embassy cable - 02KATHMANDU377

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000377 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SA/INS AND DS/OP/NEA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2012 
TAGS: PTER, PGOV, PINS, NP, Maoist Insurgency 
SUBJECT: 179 REPORTEDLY KILLED AS MAOISTS OVERRUN DISTRICT 
HQ, ARMY BARRACKS IN ACHHAM 
 
REF: KATHMANDU 0333 
 
Classified By: A/DCM HOZA.  REASON:  1.5 (B,D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) SUMMARY:  Maoist insurgents attacked an airport, a 
district police office, and an army barracks in Achham 
District in western Nepal shortly after midnight February 17. 
 Initial reports indicate 48 soldiers, at least 76 policemen, 
and 55 civilians, including the Chief District Officer and 
his wife, have been killed.  The insurgents reportedly used 
mortars, presumably captured during the November 23 assault 
on the barracks in Dang, for the first time in the attack. 
Four policemen were killed in a separate attack in Sarlahi in 
the southern Terai at about the same time.  The success of 
the attack--as well as its exceptional brutality--will raise 
questions about the efficacy of the state of emergency the 
day before Parliamentary debate on its continuation is 
scheduled.  At the same time, the attack will turn up the 
heat on Prime Minister Deuba, already under fire from 
intra-party rivals eager for an opportunity to press his 
resignation.  End summary. 
 
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ACHHAM ATTACKED 
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2. (SBU) At about midnight February 17 a large contingent of 
Maoists (initially estimated at 1,500; subsequent Army 
estimates have ranged as high as 3,000) overran the District 
Police Office in the District Headquarters of Mangalsen, 
Achham in western Nepal (approximately 760 km from 
Kathmandu), killing about 49 policemen and injuring more than 
20.  There were some reports that the Maoists may have used 
mortars, stolen during the November 23 attack on the Royal 
Nepal Army (RNA) barracks in Dang, in the attack.  The 
district police office and the District Administration Office 
were burned down.  Also killed in the attack was the Chief 
District Officer, the senior civil servant with authority for 
the district, and his wife, the local head of the National 
Investigation Department (Nepal's intelligence service), and 
52 other civilians in the district.  Communications with the 
District HQ were lost at about 3:00 a.m.; fighting reportedly 
continued until about 6:00 a.m.  Achham Jail was reportedly 
also attacked and all inmates released.  Additional reports 
indicate that the local bank was robbed and the dollar 
equivalent of more than USD 260,000 taken. 
 
3.  (SBU)  The insurgents also attacked a 57-man RNA platoon 
based at Mangalsen, killing at least 48 soldiers.  Two 
soldiers survived the attack and the remaining seven have 
been reported missing. 
 
4.  (SBU)  At about the same time the attack was launched on 
the District Headquarters, insurgents also hit police 
guarding the small airstrip at Sanphebagar, also in Achham. 
Initial casualty estimates stand at 27 police killed.  The 
airport tower, several office buildings and the airport 
police barracks were destroyed.  RNA reinforcements 
helicoptered to the site were unable to land at the airstrip 
because of improvised explosive devices scattered around the 
airfield; soldiers instead rappelled down to the field. 
 
5.  (SBU)  RNA reinforcements began reaching the sites by 
helicopter by late morning Feb. 17 and conducted search 
operations until about 6:00 p.m.  There have been no reports 
of the number of weapons possibly recovered or suspects 
arrested as a result of these operations. 
 
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SARLAHI ATTACK 
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6.  (U) Also at about midnight Feb. 17, insurgents attacked a 
19-man police post at Lalbandhi, Sarlahi District, in the 
southern Terai, killing four policemen.  One Maoist was also 
killed in the attack.  Police have so far recovered only two 
rifles stolen from the site; the number of weapons still 
missing is unknown. 
 
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PM UNDER PRESSURE 
------------------- 
 
7.  (C)  Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba was out of 
Kathmandu at the time of the attacks on a visit to Dharan in 
eastern Nepal.  He returned by late afternoon Feb. 17 and 
called an emergency Cabinet meeting.  Meanwhile, politicians 
from the PM's Nepali Congress Party were reportedly meeting 
throughout the day to discuss the attack--and its 
implications for Deuba's longevity as PM.  The Prime Minister 
is expected to address the nation over local television later 
in the evening of Feb. 17. 
 
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COMMENT 
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8.  (C)  The attacks in Achham are unprecedented in scale, 
intensity, and, if initial casualty estimates prove accurate, 
bloodshed, indicating that the Maoists, who on Feb. 13 
celebrated the seven-year anniversary of an insurgency that 
has already killed more than 2,000 Nepalis, are far from 
ready to give up.  Just as Parliament prepares to debate 
ratification of a national emergency intended to clamp down 
on the insurgents, the Maoists demonstrated they have moved 
beyond their conventional tactics of knocking off isolated, 
under-manned police posts or terrorizing local teachers and 
village leaders.  Instead, they have shown they can 
effectively disable an entire district administration, wiping 
out a whole unit of civilian government authority and 
decimating the beefed-up security forces sent to safeguard 
it.  The 55-person civilian body count, if accurate, is 
especially alarming.   Maoists have killed hundreds of 
civilians since the beginning of the insurgency, but have 
typically targeted individuals--usually local leaders or 
mainstream party activists--instead of engaging in mass, 
apparently indiscrimate attacks. 
 
9.  (C) Comment continued:  February typically sees 
heightened insurgent activity, but the Achham attacks may 
have been timed to send PM Deuba and his government a message 
as Parliament prepares Feb. 18 to debate ratification of the 
three-month-old state of emergency and its continuation for 
an additional three months (Reftel).  The magnitude of the 
bloodshed will put heightened pressure on Deuba, already 
under attack from rivals within his own Nepali Congress 
Party, led by former PM G.P. Koirala, for what they charge is 
his failure to contain the insurgency and restore civil 
order.  The viciousness of the attacks will probably ensure 
that the emergency will be extended for at least another 
three months; what they will do to Deuba's own longevity is 
less certain.  Koirala and his cronies likely do not have the 
votes within the party to oust Deuba (Reftel), but this may 
not prevent them from trying.  While the Maoists may have 
launched the attacks to prove the ineffectiveness of the 
emergency, Koirala et al may see in this national tragedy a 
similar chance to try to prove Deuba's ineffectiveness as a 
leader.  End comment. 
 
MALINOWSKI