US embassy cable - 85MOGADISHU1242

S E C R E T MOGADISHU 01242 
 
E.O. 12356:  DECL:  OADR 
TAGS:  PINT, PINS, SO 
SUBJECT:  RUMORS OF TENSIONS IN THE SOMALI REGIME 
 
1.  SECRET/NOFORN - ENTIRE TEXT. 
 
2.  RUMORS ARE PROBABLY ALWAYS ABUNDANT HERE BUT AN FSN 
EMPLOYEE (PROTECT SOURCE) TELLS US THAT RUMORS OF A NEW 
KIND ARE CIRCULATING, AS FOLLOWS: 
 
--FAILURE TO ANNOUNCE A DATE FOR THE INAUGURAL MEETING OF 
THE NEW PARLIAMENT REFLECTS SIAD BARRE'S INDECISION ABOUT 
POSSIBLE MAJOR CHANGES; 
 
--THE PRESIDENT MAY ABSENT HIMSELF FROM THE COUNTRY FOR 
EIGHT OR NINE MONTHS ON GROUNDS OF HEALTH, DECIDING ONLY 
AT THE END OF THAT PERIOD WHETHER TO RETURN; 
 
--HE MAY RE-CREATE THE POST OF PRIME MINISTER AND MAKE 
SAMANTAR, NOW FIRST VICE PRESIDENT AND DEFENSE MINISTER, 
PRIME MINISTER TO RUN THE COUNTRY IN HIS ABSENCE; 
 
--GENERAL GANNI, THE HARSH MILITARY COMMANDER IN THE 
NORTH, MIGHT REPLACE SAMANTAR AS DEFENSE MINISTER; 
 
--SECOND VICE PRESIDENT KULMIE MIGHT BE GIVEN THE 
HONORIFIC POST OF CHAIRMAN OF PARLIAMENT. 
 
3.  COMMENT:  THESE RUMORS ARE NOT OUT OF LINE WITH OTHER 
INFORMATION THE EMBASSY (INCLUDING SIRO) HAS REPORTED, 
WHICH INDICATE THAT SIAD BARRE IS FEELING MORE AGED AND 
WORRIED AND THAT THE QUESTION OF HIS LEAVING THE COUNTRY 
HAS INDEED COME UP, ALTHOUGH HE IS REPORTED TO HAVE SAID 
THAT HE WILL NOT LEAVE.  THE DEPARTMENT WILL RECALL THAT 
MINISTER OF THE PRESIDENCT ADDOU CONFIRMED TO THE 
AMBASSADOR A FEW DAYS AGO THAT A CABINET SHAKEUP WAS 
COMING AND MIGHT INVOLVE THE TWO VICE PRESIDENTS. 
WHETHER THE INAUGURAL MEETING OF PARLIAMENT IS ACTUALLY 
BEING DELAYED IS NOT CLEAR; WE CONTINUE TO HEAR THAT 
IT MAY BE HELD THIS COMING WEEK. 
 
BRIDGES