US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV70

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 000070 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/05/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, IS, GOI INTERNAL 
SUBJECT: POSSIBLE UTJ DECISION AGAINST COALITION LEAVES 
SHARON WITH UNATTRACTIVE OPTIONS 
 
REF: TEL AVIV 6672 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) Religious reservations over disengagement, concerns 
over the independence of its religious school system, and 
issues of trust -- not only money or political benefits -- 
are the core issues preventing the United Torah Judaism (UTJ) 
party from completing PM Sharon's desired Likud-Labor-UTJ 
majority coalition.  A senior official close to the Prime 
Minister told the Ambassador January 4 that for the last few 
days, UTJ spiritual leader Rabbi Elyashiv -- who alone will 
decide whether UTJ will join the coalition -- has been 
grappling with the fundamental question of whether the 
disengagement plan would ultimately result in the saving of 
lives, a primary objective of Jewish law.  Elyashiv has 
reportedly been lobbied by settlers, Likud anti-disengagement 
MKs, and, according to sources, one senior Likud member, 
against joining the coalition.  The Ambassador's source said 
Elyashiv is also concerned that, by entering the coalition, 
he could be perceived by his constituents as selling UTJ's 
votes for disengagement, not because it promotes Jewish 
religious values, but for pure monetary benefits for his 
constituency.  The source added that Elyashiv is also 
concerned that, once disengagement has been completed, Sharon 
could renege on his promise that Haredi schools would be 
exempt from certain educational reforms.  A UTJ Knesset 
member told the Ambassador January 5 that some prominent 
rabbis are lobbying Elyashiv to join the coalition in order 
to "save" the disengagement plan.  This MK was not, however, 
sure this argument would override Elyashiv's other concerns. 
 
 
2.  (C) If Elyashiv decides against UTJ joining the coalition 
-- a decision he could reach January 6 -- Sharon could 
re-open negotiations with Shas, but prospects for drawing 
that party into the coalition are poor since it remains 
firmly opposed to the disengagement plan.  Sharon could ask 
former coalition partner Shinui to return to the fold, but 
would face strong opposition within his own party to an 
entirely secular Likud-Labor-Shinui coalition, a combination 
Likud rejected August 18.  Sharon would face similar 
opposition from his party if he tries to advance a simple 
Likud-Labor coalition.  Sharon could call for early 
elections, but that would postpone implementation of the 
disengagement plan by at least the minimum 111 days required 
by law to hold elections, something Sharon is loathe to do. 
In addition, few, if any political parties, want early 
elections.  Finally, Sharon could choose to hobble along with 
his minority one-party government, depending on outside 
support from informal coalitions for his budget and the 
disengagement plan. 
 
3.  (C) The senior official highlighted that Sharon had made 
a serious tactical error in using an attorney inexperienced 
with the Haredi community to negotiate with the UTJ.  The 
lawyer, he said, failed to recognize that, their reputations 
for sharp budget bargaining notwithstanding, the Haredim 
actually have religious and moral concerns that transcend 
finances.  The official, who has long experience with the 
Haredi community, said Sharon did not take up his offer that 
he assist in the coalition negotiations with the UTJ.  The 
UTJ MK added separately that broken trust between Elyashiv 
and Sharon is so deep that even a face-to-face meeting now 
would not help. 
 
 
 
 
********************************************* ******************** 
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website. 
********************************************* ******************** 
KURTZER