US embassy cable - 05PARIS68

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000068 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY (FRANK); BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; 
AF/PA; EUR/WE (DEBORAH MENNUTI)/P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA 
(BERBENA); INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE 
HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR AND PASS USTR/PA 
(ANN LUZZATO); USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; ROME/PA; 
BRUSSELS/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, FR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - IRAQ - VIOLENCE AND COMING 
ELECTIONS TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS 
PARIS - WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 05, 2005 
 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
1. IRAQ - VIOLENCE AND COMING ELECTIONS 
2. TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS 
 
B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
PRESIDENT CHIRAC'S ECONOMIC PROGRAM FOR THE NEXT TEN YEARS HAS 
REPLACED THE ASIAN DISASTER ON MOST OF TODAY'S FRONT PAGES, 
ALTHOUGH NUMEROUS STORIES CONTINUE TO BE DEVOTED TO THE RELIEF 
EFFORTS BEING MADE. THE EDITORIAL BY PATRICK SABATIER IN LEFT- 
OF-CENTER LIBERATION CONTENDS: "THE NGOS AND ALL THEIR HELP 
CANNOT BE A SUBSTITUTE FOR THE LACK OF HELP FROM GOVERNMENTS. 
AND WE MUST REMEMBER THAT THERE ARE OTHER DISASTERS THAT NEED 
OUR ATTENTION: DARFUR, CONGO AND AIDS. JUST AS USEFUL AS CASH 
TO THE NGOS IS CASTING OUR BALLOTS TO ELECT GOVERNMENTS THAT 
WILL IMPLEMENT LONG-TERM ASSISTANCE POLICIES." ALSO IN 
LIBERATION A ONE-PAGE REPORT BY MICHEL TEMMAN RELATES THE U.S. 
EFFORTS IN BANDA ACEH. THE REPORT EMPHASIZES THE DIFFICULTIES 
THE GIS ARE FACING AS WELL AS THE COOPERATION BETWEEN THE 
AMERICANS AND OTHER FOREIGN TEAMS, INCLUDING FRANCE'S. TEMMAN 
ALSO WRITES: "FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS THE AMERICANS HAVE 
CONSIDERABLY REINFORCED THEIR PRESENCE ON SUMATRA, A MUSLIM 
ISLAND LIKE MOST OF INDONESIA, WHERE, AS OPPOSED TO IRAQ, THE 
AMERICANS ARE BEING WELCOMED LIKE HEROES." 
 
THE ASSASSINATION OF BAGHDAD'S GOVERNOR ELICITS SEVERAL 
REPORTS ON THE LEVEL OF SECURITY IN BAGHDAD AND ITS IMPACT ON 
THE COMING ELECTIONS. (SEE PART C) 
 
RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO CARRIES AN OP-ED BY COLUMNIST 
ALEXANDRE ADLER ON THE FUTURE OF TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS AND 
THE PRE-REQUISITES FOR THE U.S. - EU GAP TO BE BRIDGED. (SEE 
PART C) 
 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
IRAQ - VIOLENCE AND COMING ELECTIONS 
 
"TERRORIST THREATS ON ELECTIONS" 
RENAUD GIRARD IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (01/05): 
"INSECURITY IN IRAQ CONTINUES TO WORSEN. IT APPEARS THAT THE 
ANTI-AMERICAN INSURGENTS WHO ARE BEING RECRUITED ESSENTIALLY 
FROM THE SUNNI COMMUNITY ARE INCREASING THEIR MILITARY EFFORTS 
IN ORDER TO DERAIL IRAQ'S ELECTIONS. INSECURITY IN BAGHDAD IS 
SUCH THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO IMAGINE HOW UN OBSERVERS MAY BE 
ABLE TO DO THEIR JOB. THE NEWLY TRAINED IRAQI POLICE AND ARMY 
WHICH ARE NOT VERY MOTIVATED, POORLY TRAINED AND OFTEN 
INFILTRATED BY ISLAMIC TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS, DO NOT APPEAR 
TO BE IN A POSITION TO BRING BACK SECURITY TO IRAQ. THE 
AMERICANS RARELY COME OUT OF THEIR PROTECTED ZONES, WHICH HAS 
THE ADVANTAGE OF LIMITING U.S. CASUALTIES BUT THE 
INCONVENIENCE OF CREATING A CLIMATE OF INSECURITY WHICH MAY 
LEAD TO A HIGH DEGREE OF ABSTENTION." 
 
TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS 
 
"TRANSATLANTIC QUARRELS ON THE WANE" 
ALEXANDRE ADLER IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (01/05): "IT MAY 
BE THAT IN 2005 THE TRANSATLANTIC QUARREL WILL DIMINISH. FOUR 
EVENTS MAY HELP TO PAVE THE WAY. THE FIRST IS THE LIFTING OF 
THE CHINESE ARMS EMBARGO. THE EUROPEANS CAN ANSWER EVERY U.S. 
CONCERN IN THIS DEBATE. IF THE AMERICANS AND THE EUROPEANS 
FIND SOME GROUNDS OF UNDERSTANDING OVER THIS ISSUE, THEY WILL 
BE BETTER EQUIPPED TO DEAL WITH THE GEO-POLITICAL CHALLENGES 
OF A GREATER MAGNITUDE, SUCH AS THOSE IN THE MIDDLE EAST. THE 
AMERICANS MAY HAVE TRIGGERED A CHAIN REACTION WITH THE 
ELECTION SEASON IN THE ARAB WORLD, EITHER BECAUSE THEY ARE 
FOOLHARDY OR BECAUSE THEY BELIEVE IN A HIGHER MORALITY. AFTER 
THE ELECTIONS A NEW ERA WILL BEGIN. THIS MAY BE THE TIME FOR 
THE EUROPEANS TO BURY THE HATCHET AND BRING THE NEWLY ELECTED 
IRAQI GOVERNMENT THE HELP IT NEEDS. SUCH COOPERATION WOULD 
ALLOW GEORGE BUSH TO ENTER INTO A SPECTACULAR RAPPROCHEMENT 
WITH BERLIN AND PARIS, A RAPPROCHEMENT HE DESPERATELY NEEDS. 
WHILE AMERICA IS IN A POSITION OF EXPECTATION WHEN IT COMES TO 
IRAQ, IT IS SOMEWHAT THE OPPOSITE WHEN IT COMES TO THE 
PALESTINIAN ISSUE. HERE THE EUROPEANS WOULD UNDOUBTEDLY 
APPRECIATE HELP FROM THE AMERICANS WITH THE ISRAELIS SO THAT 
THEY MAY RETURN TO THE FOREFRONT ON THE SEARCH FOR PEACE. 
ABOUT IRAN, AMERICANS AND EUROPEANS HAVE EVERYTHING TO GAIN BY 
PRESENTING A UNITED FRONT. AS FOR RUSSIA, IT IS NOT THE TIME 
TO TALK ABOUT A QUICK INTEGRATION OF UKRAINE IN EITHER THE EU 
OR NATO. WHAT IS IMPORTANT NOW IS TO TRY TO RECONCILE KIEV 
WITH MOSCOW. BUT ALL WILL DEPEND ON WASHINGTON'S APPROACH TO 
THE FALLING DOLLAR. WITH THE PRESENT ATMOSPHERE OF ACUTE ANTI- 
AMERICANISM IN EUROPEAN OPINIONS, A UNILATERAL ECONOMIC 
GESTURE BY WASHINGTON WOULD NOT BE FORGIVEN, INCLUDING BY 
WASHINGTON'S BEST FRIENDS. CONVERSELY, A CONCERTED GESTURE, 
LIKE THE ONE DECIDED BY THE PLAZA ACCORDS OF 1985 WOULD CREATE 
A SYMBIOTIC CLIMATE THAT WOULD HELP CARRY THE PREVIOUSLY 
MENTIONED ISSUES." LEACH