US embassy cable - 05AMMAN87

C O N F I D E N T I A L AMMAN 000087 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/05/2010 
TAGS: PREL, IZ, JO 
SUBJECT: JORDANIAN REASSURANCES ON NEIGHBORS' CONFERENCE 
 
 
Classified By: Charge David Hale, Reasons 1.4 (B) & (D) 
 
1.  (C) On a daily basis, the Charge has received 
reassurances this week from the King, Royal Court Minister, 
and Foreign Minister that the January 6 Neighbors, 
Conference will reflect solid support for holding Iraq's 
elections on time and with maximum participation.  Jordanian 
officials, including at the palace, are confident they have 
secured support for this line from all participants.  Foreign 
Minister al-Mulki gave us the draft communiqu (strictly 
protect; text faxed to NEA/LEA) late January 4.  Mulki said 
participating states have agreed to the text.  It is fully in 
step with the neighbors, Sharm declaration.  On elections, 
the text welcomes "all steps taken so far to achieve 
democracy in Iraq and to support the steps taken by the 
Interim Government of Iraq to hold elections on 30 January 
2005."  The communiqu also urges "all segments of the broad 
spectrum of the Iraqi people to take up their duty in the 
forthcoming polling process; thus contribute to the shaping 
of their future, as the elections represent the only 
opportunity in sight along the path of democracy and 
freedom."  There is no other language in the draft that could 
be viewed as qualifying this message.  The Government of 
Jordan is also committed to ensuring maximum participation in 
polling held in Jordan for the 300,000 Iraqi migrs here, a 
majority of whom are Sunni.  They see in it an opportunity to 
boost Sunni participation. 
 
2.  (C) The King has continued to emphasize to visitors and 
Charge the importance of being vigilant in the post-election 
phase to protecting minority rights, ensuring the 
constitution reflects the interests of all sects, including 
Sunnis, and preventing Iranian manipulation of the outcome. 
Jordanian statements about a monolithic, Iranian-directed 
hostile Shia "crescent" potentially emerging from a Shia 
"victory" in the elections lack nuance, but they reflect 
centuries-old fears of a Persian menace, now revived by 
Iraq's present incapacity to play its traditional role as the 
Arabs, bulwark against Iran.  Late in the day, Jordanian 
officials have begun to recognize the damage these statements 
have made to their standing with Shia ) including those who 
will come out on top in Iraq, and with whom Jordan will need 
to fashion a relationship.  This recognition has led to a 
not-so-convincing shift of rhetoric, which now stresses that 
Iraq's election results should reinforce the "Arab" nature of 
the Iraqi republic, thus de-emphasizing sectarianism. 
 
3.  (C) The Jordanians have only just begun to adjust 
themselves mentally to the reality that the composition of 
Iraq's future government will reflect the nation's Shia 
majority.  However, they also have begun to see the 
importance of helping moderate, secular Shia such as Allawi 
build alliances with Sunni elements.  We should not 
overestimate Jordan's capacity to help in this regard, but we 
can count on them to do what is within their reach. 
HALE