US embassy cable - 05RANGOON20

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000020 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV, DRL 
COMMERCE FOR ITA JEAN KELLY 
USPACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/04/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, KDEM, BM, NLD 
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION CALLS FOR "CLEAN SLATE," SPDC THREATENS 
"LEGAL ACTION" 
 
REF: A. 04 RANGOON 1628 
     B. 04 RANGOON 1563 
 
Classified By: CDA a.i. Ron McMullen for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Democratic opposition groups held their 
annual January 4th Independence Day celebrations despite a 
negative SPDC response to a December demand for dialogue 
before the holiday.  The observances were well attended and 
seem to indicate a unity of purpose among the different 
groups.  With the opposition's private threat of forming a 
parallel government and the SPDC's public threat of legal 
action looming, we will see if this unity of purpose leads to 
unity of action.  End summary. 
 
The SPDC Responds to Ultimatum 
 
2. (SBU) To mark Burma's 57th Independence Day on January 
4th, the SPDC issued its usual statements about unity, the 
importance of the military's role, and the necessity to march 
towards "a modern, developed, and discipline-flourishing 
democratic nation with the seven step policy."  It also 
issued a response, through a planted article in the January 
5-11 edition of newspaper "The Flower News," to a December 2, 
2004 NLD ultimatum to Senior General Than Shwe (ref B) to 
begin a dialogue with the NLD by January 4th, "or else."  The 
ultimatum noted that the Committee Representing the People's 
Parliament (CRPP) -- a loose consultative group of opposition 
groups -- had endorsed the NLD's position. 
 
3. (SBU) The SPDC response was predictably dismissive.  The 
article accused the NLD once again of "destructionist" 
tactics and of threatening to use the "outlawed" CRPP as "a 
weapon."  It continued by noting the SPDC had generously 
allowed the CRPP to exist despite its legal status, but that 
the regime would have no choice but to take legal action "at 
any time" if the CRPP and NLD moved to form a parallel 
government (ref A).  Furthermore, the article asserted, the 
"People would never accept" such a move. 
 
Opposition Reiterates Call for Dialogue 
 
4. (SBU) The NLD and the Veteran Politicians group held their 
separate annual Independence Day events as scheduled.  The 
NLD marked the holiday at its headquarters in Rangoon.  A 
crowd of perhaps 200 members attended the function, packing 
the dilapidated building and spilling out onto the sidewalk 
and street.  NLD Secretary U Lwin gave a keynote address that 
was moderate to gentle in tone.  The NLD and allied parties' 
ultimatum to the SPDC, and the regime's indirect and negative 
response produced no follow-on call for action.  Six 
diplomatic missions attended the NLD event (United States, 
Australia, Japan, the U.K., France, and Germany).  After the 
function diplomats spontaneously lined up for a group pose 
for the bevy of Military Intelligence paparazzi engaged in a 
snapping frenzy across the street.  The NLD crowd roared with 
laughter and applauded the move. 
 
5. (SBU) The Veteran Politicians, the remaining elders from 
the original independence movement and first (and last) 
democratic government in the 1950s, held a similar event 
across town with speeches on the history of Burma's 
independence movement -- both pre and post-1948.  The keynote 
address publicly endorsed the NLD/CRPP position that a "clean 
slate" and open dialogue between the government and the 
democratic parties were needed to break the political 
deadlock.  Despite the large crowd in attendance, the United 
States was the only diplomatic mission to send a 
representative -- much to the excitement of the three still 
and one video photographer sent by MI. 
 
Comment: Unity of Purpose, But Little Leverage 
 
6. (C) Despite no inclination from the SPDC to sit down with 
the NLD, the Independence Day events, particularly the 
Veteran Politicians' ceremony, appeared to signify a new 
unity of purpose to push the regime for dialogue.  Both 
observances were better attended than in previous years by 
the various opposition "factions:" the NLD leadership, the 
more aggressive NLD youth movement, as well as ethnic 
political leaders.  With the deadline passed for a positive 
SPDC response to the ultimatum, and with the threat of "legal 
action" looming, we will see if this apparent unity of 
purpose engenders unity of action.  End comment. 
McMullen