US embassy cable - 05QUITO20

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 QUITO 000020 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/02/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, EC 
SUBJECT: WHO WILL LEAD ECUADOR'S CONGRESS? 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney, Reasons 1.4 (b) 
 
1.  (U)  SUMMARY:  January 5 marks the mid-point of the 
congressional term in Ecuador; on that date, legislators will 
elect a president, two vice presidents, and the membership of 
18 committees to lead Congress until January 2007.  The 
presidential race, pitting opposition (ID) and pro-government 
(PRE) parties, promises to be close, controversial, and quite 
possibly chaotic.  Both organizations claim entitlement to 
the legislature's highest position, yet appear to lack the 
votes necessary to invest respective candidates.  As such, 
small parties and independent deputies are likely to play a 
deciding role in the vote.  Neither party's nominee 
consistently has staked pro- or anti-U.S. positions; USG 
interests are best served by the candidate most dedicated to 
tackling Congress's ample agenda.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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Constitutional Questions Muddy Internal Elections 
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2.  (U) Ecuador's constitution awards the presidency of 
Congress during the first half of the term to the party "with 
the greatest legislative representation;" the first 
vice-presidency belongs to the second-ranking organization 
(with minority parties owning the second VP slot).  At the 
two-year mark, the parties swap positions, the second-ranking 
organization inheriting Congress's top job.  The Social 
Christian Party (PSC) won 26 of the legislature's 100 seats 
in Ecuador's October 2002 elections, easily surpassing the ID 
(16) and PRE (15) totals.  For reasons still unclear, in the 
elections' aftermath PSC leader and Congressional Deputy Leon 
Febres-Cordero refused the leadership position entitled to 
his party. 
 
3.  (U) The presidency thus fell to the second-most voted 
party, apparently the ID.  PRE leaders protested, pointing 
out that two of the ID's deputies won office in alliances 
with other parties and should not count toward the ID's 
total.  The PRE's 15 were "pure PRE," however, entitling the 
Coast-based, populist party of former President Abdala 
Bucaram to the presidency.  In response to pleas from both 
groups, Ecuador's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) considered 
the matter in late 2002, but issued an inconclusive finding. 
The controversy diminished only after Congress itself passed 
a resolution proclaiming the ID Ecuador's second political 
force and allowing Deputy Guillermo Landazuri to assume the 
presidency. 
 
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Gutierrez Comeback, Alliance Threaten Continued ID Reign 
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4.  (U) Until barely two months ago, few believed the PRE 
could challenge the ID for Congressional leadership. 
Bucaram's forces enjoyed few legislative allies apart from 
President Lucio Gutierrez's Patriotic Society Party, and the 
president, facing ID- and PSC-supported impeachment charges, 
was fighting for his political life.  Removal proceedings 
faltered November 9, however, and Gutierrez, with PRE 
backing, counterattacked.  Via resolutions passed by a slight 
majority in Congress, the president and allies in the 
legislature purged Ecuador's highest courts of most PSC 
influence.  They have now turned sights on Congress, with PRE 
leaders demanding the top legislative job for 2005-2007. 
 
5.  (SBU) They continue to trumpet the "pure vs. alliance" 
argument to justify the party's standing as Ecuador's 
second-ranking political party.  In addition, PRE bosses 
claim that two defections have reduced the ID's total deputy 
count to 14, removing any claim by the latter to the 
presidency.  Ecuador's imprecise constitution and a 
characteristic of the Spanish language -- heavy use of the 
subjunctive -- lend weight to second point, since Article 129 
states that "for the second two years, the president and vice 
president will be elected from the parties and movements that 
have obtained (hayan obtenido) the second and first 
majorities, respectively." 
 
6.  (U) From self-imposed exile in Panama, Bucaram December 
27 announced that Deputy Omar Quintana should take Congress's 
reins at the January 5 election.  Quintana, a Guayaquil 
businessman and the brother-in-law of PRIAN party founder and 
presidential candidate Alvaro Noboa, enjoys full PRE, PRIAN 
and PSP support.  However, smaller parties that pepper the 
current majority in Congress, namely the far-left Socialists 
and MPD, have withheld backing.  MPD officials announced 
December 30 they favor a different PRE candidate, Marco 
Proano, for the post. 
 
7.  (U) Dissension appeared to plague ID ranks as well. 
Rather than one, ID leadership December 29 presented four 
"pre-candidates" for the presidency of Congress:  Carlos 
Gonzalez, Wilfrido Lucero, Jorge Sanchez, and Andres Paez. 
Guayaquil daily El Universo claimed January 4 that ID 
leadership, in a three-hour meeting, chose Lucero, a veteran 
legislator and member of the International Relations 
committee.  Lucero's staff later confirmed the El Universo 
account. 
 
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All Signs Point to Confusion 
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8.  (U) Pablo Santillan, for 11 years a Congressional staffer 
and currently director of legislative services, provided 
Poloff December 30 his analysis of the PRE-ID dispute and a 
possible scenario of January 5 events.  Blame for the impasse 
lay with the TSE for not issuing a definitive ruling naming 
the PRE or ID Ecuador's second party for the full 2003-2007 
term.  The legislature's subsequent, pro-ID resolution was 
politically motivated and thus open to challenge from 
Congress itself, Santillan reasoned.  And the PRE might have 
votes to do it. 
 
9.  (U) He foresaw lame-duck Congressional President 
Landazuri opening the legislative session by referring to the 
earlier resolution favoring the ID.  Landazuri would announce 
the ID's candidate and open the floor to debate.  Santillan 
doubted sufficient support existed, however.  Instead, 
Landazuri would have to accept the PRE demand to open 
discussion on Omar Quintana.  Quintana had support from the 
PRE, PRIAN, PSP and many independents, and the MPD likely 
would support him after its political wish list was met.  It 
still did not sum to 51, Santillan feared, meaning lengthy, 
loud, and messy negotiation would follow.  PSC Deputy Carlos 
Torres predicted a similar scenario in a December 29 
conversation with Poloff. 
 
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Interested Parties Speak Out 
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10.  (SBU) PRE Deputy Ernesto Valle provided us the party 
line December 29.  The PRE's right to the legislative 
presidency lay in Article 129 of the constitution, Valle 
argued.  His party was determined not to allow the ID to 
steal it again.  Omar Quintana enjoyed the support of both 
Bucaram and grassroots PRE leaders, and pressure from allied 
parties, no matter how strong, would not sway PRE leadership. 
 Valle, too, believed the MPD would come around, after its 
leaders obtained PRE promises for a stronger MPD presence in 
the Legislative and Codification Commission, a body that 
backstopped Congress when it was out of session.  The 
Socialists were demanding control over Ecuador's Social 
Security program (IESS), a harder demand to meet, he 
believed, but not impossible. 
 
11.  (U) Edy Suarez, an aide to Socialist legislator Segundo 
Serrano, informed Poloff December 30 that his party had yet 
to determine how to cast its votes.  It did not see itself as 
a government ally nor opponent, and would consider both the 
ID and PRE candidates.  A fellow minority party, the MPD had 
done well to link its vote to promises to share political 
riches; the Socialists might do the same.  Surprisingly, 
Suarez considered his party ideologically closer to the 
populist PRE than the left-center ID, hinting that, if forced 
to choose, the Socialists would support Quintana. 
 
12.  (SBU) Electing a PRE deputy president of Congress was 
unconstitutional, ID pre-candidate Andres Paez told Poloff 
December 30, himself citing Article 129 and the legislature's 
earlier resolution favoring his party.  Worse, it represented 
an additional step toward a Gutierrez "dictatorship," as 
dangerous as December's judicial purge.  The ID had but 42 
secure votes and securing nine more looked difficult, Paez 
added. 
 
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COMMENT: 
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13.  (C) Ecuador's rapidly shifting alliances and general 
political cannibalism make us expect a messy and 
unpredictable legislative battle January 5.  The most likely 
outcome, a PRE victory, would represent a further step in 
Gutierrez's remarkable and rapid comeback, reinforcing his 
flanks against future Congressional attempts to remove him. 
It might also raise concern and protest, however, amongst 
opposition groups perceiving a dangerous concentration of 
government powers. 
 
14.  (C) The legislature faces a daunting agenda in 2005. 
Many projects involve U.S. interests, from ratifying the 
Andean Free Trade Agreement (if signed) to approving 
bilaterally beneficial civil aviation, anti-TIP, and 
anti-money laundering legislation.  We stand to benefit 
should a workaholic, issues-focused legislator win the 
presidency.  Neither Lucero nor Quintana are standouts in 
this regard, however.  END COMMENT. 
KENNEY