US embassy cable - 05KINGSTON24

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINGSTON 000024 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CAR (BENT) 
NSC FOR SHANNON 
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD AND J7 (RHANNAN) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, JM, PREL, election 
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER SEAGA TO STEP DOWN AFTER 43 
YEARS IN PARLIAMENT 
 
 
1.  Summary.  Opposition leader Edward Seaga on December 29 
announced his retirement from representational politics after 
nearly 43 years as the Member of Parliament (MP) for Western 
Kingston.  Seaga, who had previously stated his intention to 
step down as party leader by January 31, 2005, surprised some 
party officials with the announcement that he will now depart 
earlier, in mid-January, and that he will also leave his role 
as MP.  Seaga's exit from politics to take up what he 
described as a "high ranking academic position at the 
University of the West Indies" (UWI) leaves the Jamaica Labor 
Party (JLP) without an MP in Western Kingston, and without an 
opposition leader for the upcoming session of the House of 
Representatives, which will resume on January 11.  As the 
party scrambles to resolve a somewhat awkward situation, 
there is much public speculation as to who will likely 
replace Seaga.  End Summary. 
 
2.  At a meeting of JLP delegates on December 29, opposition 
leader and former prime minister Edward Seaga, who has 
represented his Western Kingston garrison community as MP 
continuously since 1962, announced that he was "obliged to 
give up (his) involvement in active politics" to make himself 
available for selection to a top position at the University 
of the West Indies.  The academic appointment, to be 
confirmed by the end of January, is reported to be a chair in 
the Department of Government at UWI.  Seaga had announced in 
June 2004 that he would step down as party leader, but it was 
widely expected that he would remain as MP for Western 
Kingston, a fiercely loyal constituency and JLP stronghold. 
 
3.  The annual JLP conference, scheduled for November 2004, 
was to be the venue for electing Seaga's successor to the 
party leadership.  However, the vote was postponed when 
leadership contender Pearnel Charles took the party to court, 
challenging the constitutionality of the process.  The issue 
was resolved, and the party conference is now scheduled to 
take place on February 19, 2005.  On that date, the party 
will choose its new leader, who will run for the office of 
prime minister in the next general elections, to be held by 
2007.  Seaga's earlier-than-expected departure, however, 
leaves the JLP with two immediate vacancies to be filled. 
First, the JLP needs an interim opposition leader when 
Parliament resumes on January 11.  In addition, Seaga's West 
Kingston constituency needs a new parliamentary 
representative. 
 
4.  Party watchers suggest that Ken Baugh, MP for Western 
Central St. Catherine and opposition spokesman on health, is 
the likely favorite to serve as opposition spokesman in 
parliament until the JLP elects a new leader in February.  A 
source told Poloff that Baugh is not known to have political 
aspirations beyond his current position, and is considered a 
safe interim spokesman who will not "rock the boat." 
 
5.  Seaga's choice to succeed him as MP for Western Kingston 
is reported to be Olivia "Babsy" Grange, currently the MP for 
Central St. Catherine.  Major news outlets indicated that 
Seaga proposed to Grange that she should take over West 
Kingston and that Senator Bruce Golding should take over 
Grange's current Central St. Catherine constituency. 
Golding, the front-runner to succeed Seaga as party leader in 
February, represented Central St. Catherine until 1997, but 
does not currently hold a parliamentary seat. 
 
6.  Contrary to Seaga,s apparent wishes, however, the 
Western Kingston constituency committee on January 2 
expressed its preference for Kingston Mayor and deputy 
chairman of the constituency, Desmond McKenzie, to replace 
Seaga as MP.  To date, McKenzie has publicly declined the 
nomination, preferring to focus on his current role as mayor 
of the capital.  Seaga has called a meeting on January 3 to 
review the applications of all candidates for MP, including 
attorney-at-law Tom Tavares-Finson, who has also expressed an 
interest in representing Western Kingston in parliament. 
 
7.  Comment: JLP general secretary Karl Samuda described this 
as &an awkward period for the party.8  With a national 
conference postponed first by Hurricane Ivan and then by a 
court battle between the two leading contenders for party 
leadership, the JLP,s public image has suffered in recent 
months.  An interim opposition leader in parliament and the 
possibility of up to two vacant parliamentary seats threaten 
the party,s position even further, particularly in the face 
of the impending general election.  Also problematic is that 
when Seaga resigns from his position as MP for Western 
Kingston in mid-January, the position will remain vacant 
until the sitting government calls for a by-election in the 
region.  However, the current government little to gain from 
calling by-elections in a JLP stronghold like Western 
Kingston.  Some observers therefore find it unlikely that the 
PNP government will choose to call by-elections in the 
immediate future.  Even without intentional foot-dragging on 
the part of the government, elections will take time and 
money to organize, and it could be weeks before a new JLP MP 
will be elected to replace Seaga. 
TIGHE