US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI20

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000020 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/04/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TW 
SUBJECT: CHEN CALLS FOR RECONCILIATION IN NEW YEAR ADDRESS 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  In his New Year's Speech, Chen Shui-bian 
called for reconciliation and cooperation between the ruling 
and opposition parties in order to stabilize domestic 
politics and promote cross-Strait peace.  Chen suggested that 
the Pan-Green and Pan-Blue start dialogue on the areas on 
which the two camps had already reached consensus, including 
a number of bills and resolutions proposed by the Greens and 
the Blues in the course of the December 11 Legislative Yuan 
(LY) election.  Chen also urged Taiwan to "stand in 
solidarity" in the face of China's "escalating belligerent 
rhetoric and military intimidation."  He pledged that Taiwan 
will continue to stand firm and seek peace and stability, and 
said he would form a "Committee for Cross-Strait Peace and 
Development" in order to forge an internal consensus in 
Taiwan.  Despite his theme of reconciliation, Pan-Blue 
politicians continue to doubt Chen's sincerity.  Given this 
atmosphere of mistrust and contention, it is difficult to 
imagine anything constructive being achieved in the next 
three weeks before the end of this LY session.  End Summary. 
 
Give Politics a Break 
--------------------- 
 
2. (C) In a New Year's Day address entitled, "Creating a New 
and Stable Environment for Consultation and Dialogue," Chen 
Shui-bian stressed the need for reconciliation and 
cooperation between the ruling and opposition parties in 
order to stabilize politics, improve the people's livelihood, 
foster ethnic harmony, and promote cross-Strait peace.  On 
domestic politics, recalling the "heated campaigns" of 
presidential and legislative election over the past year, 
Chen urged Taiwan to accept the outcomes as part of the 
process of democracy.  He called for "calm and rest" for the 
people and "solidarity and stability" for the nation. 
Acknowledging that the Taiwan people had sent a clear message 
in the December 11 legislative election that "the governing 
party must rule with humility while the opposition parties 
must be rational in providing oversight," Chen stated that 
Taiwan does not need bifurcation and ongoing confrontation 
between the Pan-Green and Pan-Blue. 
 
Starting with Domestic Legislation 
---------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) Stating that "politics is an art of possibilities," 
Chen promised to listen attentively to the voices of the 
people and to the opinions of the ruling and opposition 
parties in his decisions on the new Cabinet.  He proposed 
that the two camps work toward reconciliation by starting 
dialogue on the areas on which the two sides had already 
reached consensus, including the Ten Priority Bills and Nine 
Major Law, proposals that had been rolled out by the 
Pan-Green and Pan-Blue coalitions, respectively, during the 
campaign for the December 11 LY election.  Chen invited 
leaders from each camp, as well as representatives from the 
executive and legislative branches, to meet as soon as 
possible to negotiate the legislation.  He followed up on 
January 3 by convening a meeting of DPP leaders to establish 
internal party consensus in support of his call for 
inter-party cooperation. 
 
Forging Consensus on Cross-Strait Peace 
--------------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) In the portion of the speech that addressed 
cross-Strait relations, Chen said that now that the LY 
election was over, Taiwan should close the "Pan-Green and 
Pan-Blue divide" in order to "stand in solidarity" in the 
face of China's "escalating belligerent rhetoric and military 
intimidation."  He noted that Taiwan had extended many olive 
branches over the previous four years and sought to establish 
a new basis for dialogue, but China had continued its 
military intimidation, most recently "concocting a so-called 
'legal basis' for its military invasion of Taiwan" through 
the proposed "anti-secession law."  Chen urged that PRC 
authorities "not under-estimate the will of the Taiwan people 
to defend the sovereignty, security and dignity of the 
Republic of China."  He then pledged that Taiwan would 
continue to stand firm and seek peace and stability, and 
announced that he would form a "Committee for Cross-Strait 
Peace and Development" in order to forge an internal 
consensus in Taiwan. 
5. (C) Chen then thanked Taiwan's "international allies, 
including the United States and Japan," for their continued 
support, noting that sometimes "progress can only be made 
tacitly, and not publicized."  Then he rejected "unfair 
slanders" of Taiwan's foreign policy and expressed confidence 
in Taiwan's friends and the continued prospects for expanding 
Taiwan's international space. 
 
Pan-Blue Doubts Chen's Sincerity 
-------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) Despite his theme of reconciliation, Pan-Blue 
politicians continue to doubt Chen's sincerity.  Dismissing 
Chen's goodwill statements as "nothing new," People First 
Party (PFP) Legislator Sun Ta-chien told AIT on January 3 
that the Pan-Blue has come to distrust Chen's "expressions of 
humility."  Sun asked rhetorically, "will Chen give up 
supporting Taiwan independence and using the referendum to 
enact a new Constitution, will he empower the March 19 Truth 
Investigation Commission with real teeth, and will he 
resubmit the Control Yuan nomination list?"  Sun said that he 
doubted Chen would yield on any of these issues.  KMT 
Legislator Lee Chuan-chiao agreed that Chen cannot be 
believed, but said he would take a wait and see attitude. 
Lee suggested that Chen could show his sincerity by 
appointing PFP Chairman James Soong as the Straits Exchange 
Foundation (SEF) Chairman, the position now vacant with Koo 
Chen-fu's death on January 3.   Soochow University Professor 
Emile Sheng told AIT that the litmus test for the extent of 
Chen's willingness to cooperate would be his stance on the 
Control Yuan nominations and Special Defense Budget. 
 
Comment:  Chaos Still Reigns 
---------------------------- 
 
7. (C) Despite Chen's conciliatory statements in his New 
Year's Address, Taiwan politics remain volatile and 
contentious.  The Taiwan High Court dealt KMT Chairman Lien 
Chan and his presidential running mate James Soong another 
defeat on December 30 when it rejected the KMT-PFP lawsuit to 
invalidate the March 20 presidential election.  Lien and 
Soong's frustration over being deprived of victory on March 
20 continues to drive the Pan-Blue coalition to oppose Chen 
on almost every issue.  Tensions exist within the Pan-Blue as 
well, with the PFP angry that the KMT failed to provide PFP 
with financial resources and electoral support in the LY 
election.  The same internal mistrust is mirrored within the 
Pan-Green alliance, between the TSU and DPP, and even within 
the DPP itself, between its dominant New Tide faction and the 
rest of the party. 
 
8. (C) There is pervasive discontent among the rank and file 
of all four parties, who feel their party leaders are 
primarily concerned with their own self-interest.  While most 
political observers predict impasse over the next three 
weeks, the more optimistic hope that the conclusion of the 
current and highly contentious LY session on January 21 will 
provide an opportunity for the two opposing political camps 
to compromise and begin long overdue cooperation.  With the 
same leadership in both camps that produced the current 
deadlock still in place, however, it will require a dramatic 
shift to generate any mood of reconciliation, cooperation, or 
commitment to the greater good. 
PAAL