US embassy cable - 05ALMATY13

UNCLAS  ALMATY 000013 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, KZ, POLITICAL 
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH OTAN PARTY 
LEADER YERMEGIYAYEV 
 
REF:  A) ALMATY 4769  B) ALMATY 4315  C) ALMATY 4274 
 
1. (SBU) Summary:  During a December 21 introductory 
meeting with the Ambassador, pro-presidential Otan Party 
deputy chair Armangeldy Yermegiyayev described a party with 
a strong vertical structure, an extensive local network, 
and a clear platform.  He outlined a vision of quality-of- 
life improvements coupled with gradual democratic change. 
Yermegiyayev assessed the work of U.S.-funded democracy 
NGOs positively, reserving his criticism for opposition 
parties Ak Zhol and Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan and, 
somewhat surprisingly, first daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva's 
Asar.  End summary. 
 
2. (U) The Ambassador met with pro-presidential Otan Party 
deputy chair Armangeldy Yermegiyayev on December 21 at 
Otan's party headquarters in Almaty, the site of the 
November 28 explosions (ref A).  Party official Kazbek 
Kazkenov also took part in the meeting.  Since the October 
resignation of Zharmakhan Tuyakbay (ref B), one of the 
other two deputy chairs, Yermegiyayev has been the day-to- 
day leader of Otan.  Aleksandr Pavlov, the third deputy 
chairman, maintains a much lower profile than either of his 
counterparts.  President Nazarbayev is the chairman. 
 
-------------------------------- 
Membership Growing "Voluntarily" 
-------------------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) Yermegiyayev informed the Ambassador that Otan's 
membership had increased to 450,000, taking pains to note 
that members joined voluntarily out of a personal choice to 
support the party's ideology.  He added that the party had 
instituted monthly dues, ranging from 5 KZT to 50 KZT ($.04 
to $.38) according to income, specifically to prevent mass 
enrollments at institutions.  The party leader said that 
Otan has 9,100 party organizations at the primary level 
(i.e. institutions), an office staffed by two professional 
staff members in each raion (subdivision of an oblast), and 
an office staff by five professional staff members in each 
oblast.  Yermegiyayev explained that oblast party leaders 
are selected locally and then approved by the national 
organization, to maintain the party's strict vertical 
structure. 
 
4. (SBU) With the formation of the new Mazhilis and the 
adherence of several independent candidates to Otan, the 
party now holds 53 of the 77 seats in the lower house. 
(Note:  Mazhilis speaker Uraz Mukhamedzhanov and deputy 
speaker Sergey Dyachenko, although Otan members, do not 
count as part of the party bloc.  End note.)  Yermegiyayev 
remarked that political parties do not have offices or 
staff in the Parliament, as they do in the Russian Duma, 
implying that this was a shortcoming of the system.  He 
said that Otan favored a greater role for parties and had 
"posed the question." 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
Otan Platform "Does Not Always Match Government Policy" 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
5. (SBU) At the party's 7th congress, in early December, 
members had agreed on a number of changes to the party 
platform; according to Yermegiyayev, the new 2004-2009 
program would essentially be the party's presidential 
campaign platform.  He insisted that the party's views do 
not always match the government's policies, claiming that 
President Nazarbayev makes a clear distinction between his 
role as head of state and his job as party chairman.  To 
support his argument, he cited Otan's long-standing 
proposal to increase the Mazhilis from 77 to 120 seats, 
with half elected from party lists and half in single- 
member districts.  He described this as a way to make the 
situation fairer for smaller parties. Yermegiyayev also 
underscored his vision for Otan as a party of ideas, not of 
one person, that would outlast the current government. 
 
6. (SBU) Other elements of Otan's platform, according to 
Yermegiyayev, include giving parliament more control over 
the implementation of the national budget; equalizing the 
power of local elected bodies (maslikhats) with local 
executive authorities; giving maslikhat secretaries the 
right to run sessions on a continuous basis; and 
instituting the direct election of local leaders, with 
indirect election of raion leaders via the maslikhats. 
Yermegiyayev stressed that it would be "dangerous" to 
change the current practice of presidential appointment of 
 
 
oblast leaders, given the balance of ethnic majorities in 
different parts of the country.  He noted Russia's recent 
decision to do away with the election of governors as a 
relevant precedent.  Yermegiyayev said that Otan was 
carefully considering the question of the formation of the 
government; at its next congress, the party might propose 
that the parliamentary majority should select all the 
ministers and form the government. 
 
----------------------------------- 
Ambitious Goals for Quality of Life 
----------------------------------- 
 
7. (SBU) Without going into detail as to how Otan would 
accomplish its objectives, Yermegiyayev outlined a range of 
ambitious goals to improve the quality of life of the 
average citizen.  By 2009, pensions should equal 50% to 60% 
of the average wage; the current figure is approximately 
28%.  Salaries of teachers and doctors should be doubled. 
GDP per capita should double to $4000.  Spending on science 
should be raised from the current .16% to 1% of the budget. 
The government should institute a pro-natal policy with the 
goal of increasing the population to 20 million from its 
current level of 15 million.  The industrial base should be 
diversified. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
Good Cooperation with U.S.-Funded NGOs 
-------------------------------------- 
 
8. (SBU) Given the GOK's recent allegations that U.S.- 
funded democracy NGOs concentrated a disproportionate 
amount of their efforts on the opposition (ref C), the 
Ambassador asked Yermegiyayev about Otan's cooperation with 
the International Republican Institute (IRI) and the 
National Democratic Institute (NDI).  Yermegiyayev and 
Kazkenov indicated that the party enjoyed good relations 
with both organizations, as well as with USAID.  Kazkenov 
mentioned a recent IRI training program for young party 
members as an example of successful cooperation, noting 
that Otan had proposed organizing joint events open to all 
parties in oblast capitals to both NDI and IRI. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
Opposition Politicians "Only Desire Power" 
------------------------------------------ 
 
9. (SBU) Turning to the Kazakhstani political opposition, 
Yermegiyayev's voice began to rise as he underscored what 
he described as the inherently hypocritical position of 
parties such as Ak Zhol and Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan 
(DCK).  He asked rhetorically what ideology could possibly 
unite the ultra-liberal DCK with the Communists, who had 
formed a voting bloc for the parliamentary elections. 
"Only the desire for power," he claimed.  Noting that 
before becoming leader of Otan he himself had been a 
private businessman, Yermegiyayev pointed out that 
opposition leaders such as Zhandosov, Sarsenbayev, and 
Kazhegeldin had been in the government at the time of 
flawed privatizations and had "created this problem with 
corruption."  He claimed that they had all benefited 
personally from crooked privatization deals and had fought 
viciously over the booty.  Yermegiyayev also singled out 
Zhandosov's call for the National Fund to be distributed 
directly to the people as a shockingly disingenuous 
populist move for a former Finance Minister.  Yermegiyayev 
reminded the Ambassador that Ak Zhol had also called for 
the reexamination of contracts signed with foreign 
investors in the early 1990s, and stressed that Otan 
understood the need to respect contracts. 
 
----------------------------------- 
Asar: Not Clear What They Stand For 
----------------------------------- 
 
10. (SBU) Yermegiyayev told the Ambassador that the 
leadership of first daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva's Asar 
party had approached Otan before the parliamentary 
elections with a proposal to form a voting bloc.  Otan had 
refused.  Yermegiyayev described his party's attitude 
toward Asar as mixed; while they did not view Asar as a 
serious competitor, they needed time to see what the other 
main pro-presidential party stood for.  He contrasted the 
two parties' programs, claiming that Otan had made very 
specific proposals while Asar had made only vague 
statements such as support for raising pensions and more 
support for science.  Yermegiyayev remarked that time would 
 
 
show which party had a real program and represented the 
interests of the people.  (Comment:  While Yermegiyayev may 
well have genuine antipathy toward Asar, many observers 
believe that the parties are deliberately trying to 
distance themselves from each other in order to appeal to 
different groups of voters and increase their overall vote 
share.  End comment.) 
 
11. (SBU) Bio note:  Yermegiyayev was chairman of Otan from 
2002 to March 2004, when he stepped down and became a 
deputy chair at the 6th Otan party congress.  He is thought 
to be close to President Nazarbayev, as the latter chose 
him to be chairman of Otan even though Yermegiyayev had no 
history as a party activist.  His demotion was seen by some 
local analysts as part of a Nazarbayev strategy to mobilize 
the rank and file; Yermegiyayev was thought to be too much 
of a functionary to carry out that role.  (Note: 
Tuyakbay's subsequent resignation likely upset the overall 
strategy, however.)  Yermegiyayev, one of eight children, 
was born June 14, 1944 in the village of Jalanash in Alma- 
Ata Oblast.  He graduated from Moscow's V. Kuybyshev Civil 
Engineering Institute in 1968 with a degree in industrial 
and civil construction.  After military service, he worked 
in the construction industry until 1988, when he was 
appointed Deputy Chairman of the Executive Committee of the 
Almaty City Soviet of People's Deputies.  He returned to 
the private sector in 1990 as president of the 
Almatykurylys construction holding company, a position he 
still holds. 
 
12. (U) Dushanbe minimize considered. 
 
ASQUINO 
 
 
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