US embassy cable - 05ZAGREB6

UNCLAS ZAGREB 000006 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE - KABUMOTO, BENEDICT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, HR, Political Parties/Elections 
SUBJECT: MESIC AND KOSOR HEADING FOR SECOND ROUND IN 
CROATIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A. ZAGREB 02210 
     B. ZAGREB 02002 
     C. ZAGREB 01601 
     D. ZAGREB 01571 
 
1. SUMMARY AND COMMENT: President Stjepan Mesic fell one 
percent short of the simple majority he needed for a first 
round re-election on January 2, finishing the day at 49 
percent of the 2.2 million votes cast.  He will face Croatian 
Democratic Union (HDZ) nominee Jadranka Kosor, who received 
20 percent of the vote, in a two-candidate runoff on January 
16.  The biggest surprise was clearly the third-place 
candidate, a Croatian-American businessman who stunned 
political analysts with a finish just below 18 percent, 
nearly edging Kosor out of the second round.  The remaining 
ten candidates each finished below 3 percent.  NGO observers 
reported no irregularities at the polls.  Mesic, who finished 
first in all 21 Croatian electoral districts, is expected to 
win an easy second round victory, but the HDZ political 
machine is likely to kick into high gear in the next two 
weeks and could turn out enough voters to partially erode 
Mesic's 30-point lead.  It remains to be seen whether Miksic 
voters, who apparently were looking for new faces in Croatian 
politics, will go for Kosor on January 16 ) or perhaps not 
vote at all.   END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. 
 
MIKSIC STEALS THE SHOW 
---------------------- 
 
2. Boris Miksic, a Croatian-American who immigrated in the 
1970s and made a fortune in composite plastics in his adopted 
home state of Minnesota, shocked the country as he led Kosor 
in exit polls until the diaspora vote was counted, dropping 
him to third place.  Miksic, who personally funded all of his 
5-million kuna (USD 1 million) campaign (nearly twice what 
Mesic spent), tapped into disaffected right-of-center 
voters, frustration with a HDZ government that they feel has 
focused on Euro-Atlantic integration at the expense of 
domestic priorities and conservative values. 
 
3. Miksic's finish illustrates a call for new faces in 
Croatian politics.  He entered the race in November as a 
relatively unknown figure, having unsuccessfully run for 
parliament in 2003, and actually withdrew before the election 
date was announced due to what he said was the media ignoring 
his campaign.  Apparently enough newspapers noticed his 
departure to prompt him to quickly re-enter the race.  He 
focused his campaign on improving Croatia's economy, which he 
said should be done before entering EU negotiations.  He also 
gathered some far right votes with promises that ICTY 
fugitive Ante Gotovina would walk freely in Croatia under his 
presidency. 
 
4. Miksic said he does not intend to tell his voters whom 
they should support in the second round, but Kosor would be 
the natural choice for most.  We may see the HDZ court Miksic 
prior to January 16 in an effort to win his endorsement. 
Miksic has made a big enough splash to stir up Croatian 
politics, and may be recruited by other parties as well. 
 
KOSOR CALLS FOR DEBATE ON THE ISSUES, NOT PERSONAL JABS 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
5. A defeat at the hands of Miksic would have been a disaster 
for Kosor and the HDZ, who can thank diaspora voters for 
saving their collective skin.  The low, 51 percent voter 
turnout (compared to the typical 70 percent) also hurt Kosor, 
and probably Mesic as well, as base voters who saw the 
election as a foregone conclusion stayed home.  After 
breathing a deep sigh of relief when the official preliminary 
results were announced at midnight, Kosor quickly launched 
into round two, challenging Mesic to debate her on the 
issues.  This would be a welcome change from round one, when 
the discourse focused on one-liners and personal insults. 
 
6. COMMENT: Mesic was perhaps too comfortable with his 
30-plus percentage point lead in pre-election polls, letting 
Kosor's massive media blitz overshadow his campaign.  To 
assure victory, he now must energize his voters, as turnout 
could be even lower in the second round.  END COMMENT. 
FRANK 
 
 
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