US embassy cable - 05AMMAN22

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 000022 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/23/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, KPAL, KISL, IZ, JO 
SUBJECT: SENATE STAFFERS MEET KING ABDULLAH, PARLIAMENTARY 
LEADERS 
 
Classified By: CDA DAVID HALE FOR REASONS 1.4 (B, D) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) A Government of Jordan-sponsored U.S. Senate staff 
delegation met with King Abdullah December 21 to discuss the 
U.S.-Jordanian relationship, peace process, and Iraq. The 
King urged all of the involved parties not to let the 
opportunity of the January 9 Palestinian presidential 
elections slide away. On Iraq, King Abdullah reaffirmed his 
support for the January 30 date, despite some misgivings, and 
his intent is to encourage full Iraqi participation. The King 
stressed Jordan's appreciation for U.S. aid, and spoke about 
the successes and challenges facing Jordan's reform program. 
The staffers met separately with House Speaker Abdul Hadi 
Majali, Senate President Zaid Rifa'i, and Deputy Prime 
Minister Marwan Muasher. End Summary. 
 
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A RARE SECOND CHANCE FOR ABU MAZEN 
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2.  (C) The King told a visiting delegation of Senate staff 
members on December 21 that January 2005 will define the 
future of the Middle East, hopefully in the right direction. 
The election of new Palestinian leadership on January 9 will 
afford a rare second chance to former Palestinian Prime 
Minister Abu Mazen. The King stated his confidence in Abu 
Mazen but added that he will need support in order to 
succeed. Echoing the views of parliamentary leaders in a 
separate meeting December 20, the King stated that Arafat and 
Sharon were obstacles that Abu Mazen could not overcome as 
Palestinian Prime Minister. Abu Mazen's situation became 
untenable when, after repeated conciliatory policies aimed at 
jump-starting the peace process, Abu Mazen had little to show 
for his efforts. This time around, Abu Mazen will require 
stronger support from the international community, 
specifically the U.S. and Israel, but also from the Arab 
countries, according to the King. 
 
3.  (C) The King, in reaffirming his commitment to the 
roadmap, saw a window of two years for serious progress in 
the peace process in order for a successful resolution to be 
achieved. The process so far has spanned the tenures of eight 
different U.S. Presidents, and the King feared that it might 
take another eight. Emphasizing the importance of a viable 
Palestinian state--based on 1967 borders--as the only 
solution, King Abdullah said that he firmly believed Israel 
will gain a true partner for peace in Abu Mazen. The Arab 
world is ready to accept Israel's existence as a legitimate 
country in the Middle East, and it is now up to Israel to 
embrace the opportunity to make serious strides toward peace. 
Abu Mazen must be given room to maneuver if he is to be able 
to win popular support. In a separate meeting, Senate 
President Zaid Rifa'i said that Abu Mazen must not be handed 
a set of preconditions by the Israelis before negotiations 
even begin. Rifa'i stated, for example, that no one 
realistically expects the right of return to be part of a 
final settlement, but Abu Mazen must at least have it as a 
bargaining chip. 
 
4.  (C) The King stated that without a resolution to the 
Israeli/Palestinian conflict, Jordan and the rest of the 
Middle East will look the same in 20 years as it does now. 
King Abdullah noted that King Hussein used to comment on the 
importance of peace for his children's children. As King 
Abdullah pointed out, that generation is now, and the current 
King does not want to be using his father's words for very 
much longer. 
 
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A HOPEFUL FIRST CHANCE FOR IRAQ 
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5.  (C) On Iraq, the King expressed his support for the 
January 30 elections. However, he emphasized that the 
foremost priority for successful elections is the inclusion 
of Sunni Muslims in the process. The King, as well as Rifa'i, 
stated that there is a great fear in Jordan of a marginalized 
Sunni population and a commanding majority Shia Iraqi 
theocratic government modeled on Iran. If this comes to 
fruition, stability in the region will be threatened. The 
King added that the drafting of the new Iraqi constitution 
will be a critical step in the Iraq's future. For that 
reason, it is crucial that the elections produce a 
representative government. If the elections go badly, the 
King suggested that the U.S. and Jordan think outside of the 
box, and potentially designate a special Iraqi task force to 
draft the new constitution. 
 
6.  (C) The King emphasized that enhanced security would 
encourage electoral participation. Rifa'i also attested to 
the great importance of internal security. Rifa'i commented 
that the de-Baathification and demilitarization of Iraq were 
detrimental to the process leading to a free Iraq. He 
expressed some hesitation about the January 30th date for 
elections. Rifa'i would have preferred to see more strides 
made in securing the country first, but acknowledged that as 
the date is set, the coalition and its partners must adhere 
to it. 
 
7.  (C) During a meeting at the Parliament, House Speaker 
Abdul Hadi Majali spoke of the opposition's success in 
attracting followers. With 70 percent unemployment in Iraq, a 
"resistance" that employs people, putting food on the table 
and $200 a month in its members' pockets, presents a very 
attractive option. Saddam Hussein fed the people; so far, the 
new government in Iraq has failed to do so. Majali also 
stated that with its porous borders, Iraq affords an 
opportunity to "fight the Americans" to anyone who so 
desires. His suggestions: food and security. With these, the 
Iraqi public will embrace the coalition's efforts and the new 
government's legitimacy. Without them, the resistance will 
continue to present a more attractive option. 
8.  (C) On Jordan's role in Iraq, Deputy Prime Minister 
Marwan Muasher remarked in a lunch meeting that Iraq does not 
want Arab countries involved in domestic matters. Muasher did 
comment, however, that Jordan is glad to be helping U.S. 
forces in a "quiet way". Muasher expressed concern that 
Jordan's assertion that a Shia', non-representative Iraqi 
government will turn Iraq into the next Iran is being poorly 
received in the U.S. He stated that this scenario is not an 
exaggeration. 
 
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REFORM EFFORTS 
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9. (C) The King had expressed optimism about reform efforts 
in Jordan. The problem, however, is translating vision into 
action, and Jordan has sometimes set too lofty goals. He 
commented that U.S. support has been instrumental to Jordan's 
success. Reform efforts are three-tier: social, economic, and 
political. Political reform is only possible once social and 
economic issues have been dealt with. Echoing his sentiments 
on Iraq, the King said that if the people are poor and 
hungry, they will listen to extremists, making political 
reform impossible. The King was hopeful, though, that Jordan 
will achieve political reform in the near future. 
HALE