US embassy cable - 04ZAGREB2210

UNCLAS  ZAGREB 002210 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE - KABUMOTO, BENEDICT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, HR, Political Parties/Elections 
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - MESIC IN FIRST ROUND? 
 
REF: A. ZAGREB 02002 
     B. ZAGREB 01601 
     C. ZAGREB 01571 
 
1. SUMMARY AND COMMENT: President Stjepan Mesic appears 
poised to win a second five-year mandate in the upcoming 
presidential election; the only question that remains is 
whether he will get the necessary 50 percent   one vote in 
the first round on January 2 or face a second round against 
his nearest rival on January 16.  While Mesic and Jadranka 
Kosor of the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) are the 
only ones with a hope of making a second round, 11 other 
contenders signed on for the short, holiday-season campaign, 
more candidates than in any presidential election since 
Croatian independence. 
 
2. While none of the other 11 is likely to break even five 
percent at the polls, they have come out of the woodwork for 
a variety of reasons.  The most colorful characters of the 
race (a soccer coach who led Croatia to third place in the 
1998 World Cup, a former army general turned shady 
entrepreneur turned extremist politician, and a "local boy 
does good" millionaire back from Minnesota) seem bent on 
self-promotion.  Others are using the election campaign to 
voice right-wing beliefs from which they feel the HDZ 
government has strayed.  The rest are in the business of 
party building - increasing name recognition and mobilizing 
activists for local elections expected in April or May 2005. 
 
3. With results so predictable (Mesic is consistently polling 
around 50 percent, while Kosor is lucky to draw 20 percent 
with only 15 percent left undecided), the election's real 
value may in the end be to show PM Ivo Sanader just how small 
the extreme right of Croatian politics is, encouraging him to 
continue, and perhaps even step up, reforms on the path to 
Euro-Atlantic integration.  END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. 
 
WISECRACKS AND WISDOM ) MESIC AS THE CITIZEN PRESIDENT 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
4. At age 71, Mesic remains the nation's most popular 
politician, a classic populist who often serves as the moral 
compass of the nation.  Throughout his five years in office, 
he has cultivated his image as the genial and witty "citizen 
president," in sharp contrast to the oft bad-tempered style 
of his predecessor, Franjo Tudjman.  Known in U.S. circles as 
a leading opponent to Article 98 and troops to Iraq, Mesic 
has actually played an extremely positive role in Croatian 
politics since the 1960s. 
 
5. Mesic was imprisoned for a year for his role in the 
"Croatian Spring" of 1971, a movement against Belgrade's 
domination of Yugoslavia.  Mesic later served briefly as the 
last president of Yugoslavia and even more briefly as 
Croatia's first prime minister.  He returned to parliament as 
speaker in early 90s, but then left in protest against the 
HDZ's policy promoting the division of Bosnia.  Mesic became 
one of Tudjman's most outspoken critics, and as president he 
can claim at least some credit for leading Croatia out of the 
international isolation brought on by Tudjman's regime.  He 
also spearheaded efforts to amend Croatia's constitution, 
greatly reducing the presidential powers of Tudjman's day and 
transforming the country into a parliamentary democracy.  He 
has focused on his experience during the campaign, asking 
voters to let him continue to improve the nation. 
 
CROATIA'S SOCIAL CHAMPION: KOSOR ON THE SOFT ISSUES 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
6. Kosor, currently deputy prime minister and minister of 
family, veterans, affairs, and intergenerational solidarity, 
was selected as the HDZ candidate only weeks before the 
campaign began and faces a steep uphill battle against Mesic. 
 Simply forcing a second round would be a huge success.  The 
HDZ, however, has opened its checkbook and activated its 
political machine, making Kosor by far the most promoted 
candidate in the campaign. 
 
7. Kosor's radio programs for refugees and other victims 
during the war years in the mid-1990s first endeared her to 
the Croatian public.  She then became a parliamentarian and 
later deputy chair of the HDZ.  Kosor thrives on social 
issues and has focused her campaign on improving living 
conditions for disadvantaged groups.  She has stepped ahead 
of the HDZ on a few issues, perhaps to show herself as more 
than Sanader's puppet, taking an absolutist stance against 
sending troops to Iraq, calling the indictment against 
Gotovina flawed, and flatly opposing the controversial 
Druzba-Adria oil pipeline from Russia to the Croatia coast. 
However, her Mother Theresa image, as Mesic calls it, 
continues to define her.  In classic Mesic style, he has 
lately taken to calling his opponent "Lady Suzanna," after 
she wept at campaign event ("suza" is Croatian for tear). 
 
SHOUTS FROM THE FRINGES 
----------------------- 
 
8. The marginal voices in the campaign have tended toward the 
extreme, with several candidates claiming that ICTY fugitive 
Ante Gotovina should not surrender to The Hague, and others 
focusing on reasons why Croatia does not need the EU. 
Fortunately, all of the far right candidates combined will be 
unlikely to break 10 percent on January 2. 
 
9. The GoC has opened 155 polling places in 50 countries for 
the Croatian diaspora and Croatians in BiH and SaM, who enjoy 
the rights of citizenship without ever stepping foot in 
Croatia.  This will likely give a needed boost to Kosor, as 
the HDZ dominates in communities outside the country, and is 
probably her only hope in forcing a second round. 
FRANK 
 
 
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