US embassy cable - 04LAGOS2592

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 002592 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
STATE FOR INR, AF/W, DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: SOUTHERN NIGERIA: POLITICAL TIDBITS 
 
REF: ABUJA 1965 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne per 1.4 b and d 
 
1.  (S/NF)  Summary:  During an early December visit, Abia 
State Governor Orji Kalu told Consul General his presidential 
bid is tactical.  Kalu admitted he was serving as Vice 
President Atiku's stalking horse to distract President 
Obasanjo, with the understanding that Kalu will emerge as 
Atiku's running mate.  Kalu intimated that he had 
participated in discussions with other People's Democratic 
Party (PDP) members, including VP Atiku, about fomenting 
civil unrest to remove Obasanjo from office prior to 2007. 
The Consul General advised Kalu that attempting to engineer 
either a coup or civil unrest would be an extreme misstep 
that could do irreparable damage to Nigeria and its 
democratic maturation. 
 
2.  (S)  Summary continued: Prominent human rights attorneys 
told the Consul General that progressive forces in southern 
Nigeria are attempting to coalesce to counter the PDP.  The 
All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) announced that Chairman 
Chekwas Okorie was being removed from his position for 
anti-party activities.  The APGA rift has been caused by lack 
of money and interference by the PDP.  Senator Musiliu 
Obanikoro left the Alliance for Democracy to join the PDP. 
The move is a major blow to Lagos State Governor Tinubu. 
Obanikoro was a member of Tinubu's inner circle.  End 
summary. 
 
 
KALU ADMITS HIS PRESIDENTIAL BID IS TACTICAL, WARNS OF CIVIL 
UNREST 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
3.  (C) Abia State Governor Orji Kalu confided to Consul 
General that his presidential bid was basically a ruse.  With 
his highly publicized bid, Kalu hoped to distract Obasanjo's 
ire from VP Atiku and also to undermine Obasanjo's attempts 
to push River State Governor Peter Odili as a candidate. 
(Although from Rivers, Odili is of Igbo extraction.  Obasanjo 
hopes he can placate both the South-South and Southeast if 
Odili is either his hand-picked presidential or 
vice-presidential candidate.)  In exchange for running 
interference, Kalu said he hoped to be selected as VP Atiku's 
running mate.  Kalu claimed that VP Atiku retained as firm 
control of the party machinery as he did during the 2003 PDP 
convention when Atiku was the decisive figure in swinging the 
convention toward renominating Obasanjo.  If we can get to 
the party convention, Atiku is a certain winner, the 
ebullient Kalu predicted. 
 
4.  (S/NF) Kalu and others in the People's Democratic Party 
(PDP) believe Obasanjo has lost touch with political reality 
and is steering Nigeria toward collapse.  Kalu feared the 
country might not make it to the 2007 elections.  Moreover, 
Obasanjo is still contemplating amending the constitution to 
allow himself a third term, Kalu opined.  If Obasanjo 
continues his current bad performance or actually seeks a 
third term, Kalu warned he and other PDP members, including 
Atiku, would take extra-legal action to remove him from 
office; they would go as far as to foment civil unrest, Kalu 
suggested. 
 
5.  (S/NF) The Consul General plainly told Kalu that 
attempting to orchestrate a coup or civil unrest was the acme 
of shortsightedness.  Once such forces are unleashed you can 
no longer master them, the CG warned.  The "solution" that 
emerges could be more dire than the problem you attempted to 
solve. Taking such a gamble would injure Nigeria domestically 
and internationally.  Moreover, history would rue such a 
decision and would blame him for it.  If you honestly 
believed you controlled the PDP, the best tack would be to 
adhere to the rule of law and the democratic electoral 
process, the CG offered.  If Atiku believed he had the inside 
track to the presidency in 2007, the last thing he would want 
is Obasanjo to fail to make it to 2007.  Instead of 
encouraging extra-legal activity, Atiku, and by extension, 
Kalu, should be dousing such talk, explained the CG.  Their 
efforts should be focused on advocating essential political 
and economic reform so that Nigeria can be in the best shape 
possible come 2007.  If you believe victory is within reach, 
you should want Nigeria to be on the mend. You should 
safeguard not endanger the thing for which you claim to be 
fighting, the CG concluded. 
 
6.  (S/NF)  Comment:  It is no surprise Kalu and Atiku are 
working together.   However, Kalu's talk about civil unrest 
shows the depth of anti-Obasanjo feeling held by some members 
of the president's own party.  Kalu has exaggerated more than 
once in his life and his statement about extra-legal activity 
could be in this genre.  Nevertheless, we clearly signaled 
that such escapades would win no succor from our corner and 
that the electoral game was the only game in town as far as 
we were concerned.  End Comment. 
 
PROGRESSIVES ARE UNITING TO COUNTER PDP IN THE SOUTH 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
7.  (C)  Prominent human rights attorney Femi Falana, an 
unsuccessful 2003 Ekiti State gubernatorial candidate, told 
the Consul General that he and others from the pre-1999 human 
rights/democracy movement are working to broker a closer 
relationship among progressive forces in southern Nigeria. 
Focusing on the Alliance for Democracy (AD) in the Southwest, 
the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) in the Southeast 
(the two regionally based parties), and a handful of even 
smaller parties, they are working to counter what they view 
as the PDP's attempt to monopolize the country.  Lagos State 
Governor Tinubu is purportedly involved in the effort. 
 
APGA TURMOIL 
------------ 
 
8.  (C)  Because of its own internal turmoil, APGA may not be 
able to contribute much to this inter-party dialogue.  The 
week of December 13, members of the National Executive 
Committee of APGA announced Chairman Chekwas Okorie was being 
removed from his position for anti-party activities. 
Friction between Okorie and APGA's Anambra gubernatorial 
candidate Peter Obi seems to be a factor in the removal. 
(Note: Peter Obi was the putative winner of the 2003 Anambra 
gubernatorial election.) 
 
9.  (C) Okorie has been accused of taking money from the 
Atiku-Ngige axis in the PDP in exchange for withholding APGA 
support for Obi court case challenging the election results. 
(Chris Ngige is the current governor of Anambra.)  Meanwhile, 
Obi and Ngige nemesis Chris Uba have apparently had some 
negotiations aimed at reaching an agreement that would put 
Obi in power in Anambra and allow Uba to maintain some 
influence in the state.  As both the APGA and the PDP 
experience internal dissension, competing factions in each 
party are working with different factions from the other 
party to destroy their internal enemies.  Thus, the murky 
world of politics in Anambra gets even more sullied. 
 
SENATOR OBANIKORO MOVES FROM AD TO PDP 
-------------------------------------- 
 
10.  (C)  Senator Musiliu Obanikoro left the AD to join the 
PDP.  The move is a major blow to Lagos State Governor 
Tinubu, the only AD governor in the country.  Obanikoro 
reportedly was a member of Tinubu's inner circle, and one of 
the people being considered to succeed Tinubu.  Obanikoro can 
expose many of Tinubu's political secrets and strategies, 
including plans to maintain AD power in Lagos and to control 
Afenifere.  Obanikoro may have valuable information on 
Tinubu's close relationship with Vice President Atiku and 
their plans to prepare for a possible Atiku-Tinubu ticket in 
the 2007 presidential elections.  Obanikoro's move is further 
indication of the PDP's resolve to wrest Lagos from Tinubu 
and the AD in 2007. 
 
11.  (U) This cable was cleared by Embassy Abuja. 
BROWNE