US embassy cable - 04KINSHASA2352

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 002352 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/30/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KPKO, CG 
SUBJECT: DEC. 30 DRC UPDATE 
 
 
Classified By: Poloff Meghan Moore for Reasons 1.4 B and D 
 
 1. (SBU) Summary: Although the area north of Kanyabayonga 
has quieted and humanitarian relief efforts are underway, 
troubling fighting and troop movements continue in parts of 
North Kivu that used to be under RCD/G control. End Summary. 
 
Tension High in Goma 
---------------------- 
 
2. (C) On December 30, an international human rights worker 
told poloff that over the past month, ethnic tension in Goma 
has become increasingly noticeable. She opined that an 
increase in ethnic tension combined with ongoing arming of 
Rwandophone civilians in Masisi, continuous reports of 
small-scale fighting between ex-ANC elements and the FARDC, 
and the fact that Governor Serufuli increasingly behaves like 
a "local dictator instead of a state employee" are troubling. 
A MONUC poloff said that the situation "wasn't looking good" 
and said it appears that both sides may be preparing for a 
more serious confrontation. During the week of December 27, 
Congolese sources in North Kivu told political assistants 
they were concerned that serious fighting in North Kivu would 
resume. 
 
North-South Kivu Border 
----------------------- 
 
3. (C) On December 30, a MONUC officer reported that Kivu 
Brigade Commander General Isberg met with North Kivu military 
regional commander BG Amisi on December 29. Amisi reportedly 
told Isberg that he was concerned with the situation near 
Minova (northern South Kivu), said President Kabila had told 
him to deploy a "neutral" company to Kalehe (southern North 
Kivu), and claimed that Governor Serufuli was directing the 
situation and was trying to encourage discord between the 
North and South Kivu military regions. On December 30, an 
international NGO worker in Goma told poloff that in the past 
few weeks up to 20,000 civilians had been displaced from 
Bweramana (on the border of North and South Kivu, between 
Kalehe and Minova) towards Minova. Generals Isberg, Mabe and 
Amisi were scheduled to meet in Minova on December 30. 
 
Walikale Territory 
------------------ 
 
4. (C) On December 29, BG Amisi reportedly told Isberg that 
he had heard that four ex-ANC (RCD/G military wing)battalions 
planned to advance towards Walikale along three axes, with 
the first advance along the Ntoto axis already under way. 
Amisi reportedly said he had heard that the 91st (Mai Mai) 
and 36th (unknown) Brigades intended to advance on Masisi, 
and added that General Buki (Army Chief of Staff) had told 
him that if the ex-ANC advanced on Walikale, it would be 
attacked by aerial bombing. (Note: Unsure if FARDC has 
capacity to conduct aerial bombing operations. End note.) 
 
5. (SBU) On December 29, MONUC confirmed that Mai Mai and 
ex-ANC from the 11th Brigade killed civilians and committed 
other human rights violations when ex-ANC soldiers withdrew 
from areas near Walikale town during mid-December. Mai Mai 
from the 91st Brigade have controlled Walikale town since 
December 18. Mai Mai soldiers executed three civilians (one 
Rwandan, one Kinyarwanda-speaking Congolese, and one Mushi), 
and arrested and executed six ex-ANC soldiers in Walikale 
territory. Ex-ANC soldiers from the 11th Brigade also killed 
four civilians and one soldier in the area of Kilambo, and 
kidnapped dozens of civilians from Mubi, Walikale town, 
Murakato and Tutero who were forced to carry looted goods 
towards Masisi territory. 
 
Nyabiondo--Masisi Territory 
--------------------------- 
 
6. (C) On December 30, MONUC poloff reported that there were 
ongoing clashes between FARDC (mostly believed to be Mai Mai) 
and ex-ANC troops in the area of Kibua (between Nyabiondo and 
Masisi).  On December 29, Radio Okapi reported that Nyabiondo 
was under the control of soldiers from the ex-ANC's 12th 
Brigade after fighting between the ex-ANC and Mai Mai from 
December 18-20. Up to 100 civilians were killed, a large 
number of civilians were displaced, and a church was 
reportedly attacked during a service. Reportedly, Mai Mai 
have been pushed about 15km north of Nyabiondo towards 
Lushebero. During the week of December 27, a MONUC team 
visited Masisi and found the area between Goma and Masisi 
mostly calm. The team, however, saw the local administrator 
in Masisi distribute arms to Rwandophone civilians, and 
received reports that civilians had been killed. MONUC has 
also received reports that ex-ANC troops from the 12th 
Brigade are traveling from Kanyabayonga towards Kibua. 
 
Buramba--Rutshuru Territory 
--------------------------- 
7. (C) On December 30, an international NGO worker told 
poloff that at least 16 civilians were killed in mid-December 
by ex-ANC soldiers in Buramba (100 km northeast of Goma). The 
ex-ANC soldiers reportedly attacked the village in 
retaliation for the death of two ex-ANC soldiers. They forced 
all civilians to leave the village, and would not let anyone 
return for about 10 days, during which time they 
systematically looted homes. Two civilians who attempted to 
return were reportedly shot and killed. 
 
Humanitarian Corridor Opens 
--------------------------- 
 
8. (SBU) On December 30, OFDA officer told poloff that a 
humanitarian convoy reached Kayna (15km north of 
Kanyabayonga) on December 29, and the Lubero-Goma road was 
open to humanitarian trucks but not to commercial truck 
traffic. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
9. (C) Although the area north of Kanyabayonga has quieted 
and humanitarian relief efforts are underway, fighting and 
troop movements continue in parts of North Kivu that used to 
be under RCD/G control--notably Rutshuru and Masisi. 
Although the Kanyabayonga cease-fire is a positive 
development, the real possibility of an ex-ANC/FARDC showdown 
is not over. At this point, any number of scenarios are 
possible, including the possibility that the ex-ANC is 
interested in re-asserting military control over part of its 
previous zone of influence in North Kivu-- notably the area 
from Goma north to Kanyabayonga, south to Kalehe, west to 
Walikale, and Masisi and Rutshuru territories. These 
contiguous areas have high concentrations of Rwandophones and 
local administrators loyal to the ex-ANC.  It appears that 
ex-ANC and RCD/G hardliners have decided to focus on 
controlling this territory. 
 
10. (U) Bujumbura minimize considered. 
MEECE