US embassy cable - 04HARARE2090

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002090 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR B. NEULING 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2009 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, ZI, ZANU-PF 
SUBJECT: RULING PARTY SETS DATE FOR PRIMARIES AMIDST MORE 
INTRA-PARTY FERMENT 
 
REF: (A) HARARE 2063 (B) HARARE 2001 (C) HARARE 73 
 
Classified By: Classified by Charge d'Affaires Eric Schultz under Secti 
on 1.5 b/d 
 
1.  (U) SUMMARY: ZANU-PF announced that it will conduct its 
primaries for the March national parliamentary elections on 
January 15.  Intra-party violence has already begun to rise. 
Fights between supporters of two sitting ZANU-PF MPs and the 
supporters of their party rivals in two hotly-contested seats 
resulted in the arrest of a number of partisans, including 
the two MPs.  All of those arrested were quickly released. 
Separately, four prominent party figures have been 
incarcerated on unspecified charges associated with suspected 
espionage, according to press reports.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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ZANU-PF Primaries Announced 
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2.  (U) ZANU-PF National Commissar Elliott Manyika announced 
December 28 that the party's parliamentary primaries would be 
conducted on January 15.  According to local press reports, 
Manyika said that candidates would be limited to members of 
provincial executives, the National Consultative Assembly, or 
the Central Committee.  In addition, sitting members of 
Parliament could run provided there were no disciplinary 
cases pending against them. 
 
3. (U ) Manyika was also reported to have said that at least 
one third of the constituencies would be occupied by women 
without, however, explaining the means by which such a quota 
would be met.  He also reiterated the admonition of President 
Mugabe and other senior party officials that political 
violence, including intra-party violence, would not be 
tolerated.  Manyika made no mention of a requirement that 
candidates must have been members of the party for at least 
five years -- a measure rumored to be under consideration in 
order to exclude certain "Young Turks," such as discredited 
Information Minister Jonathan Moyo. 
 
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Intra-party Violence 
------------------------ 
 
4.  (U) Despite Mugabe,s admonition, political violence 
ticked up this past week, principally within ZANU-PF.  On 
December 26, a scuffle broke out between supporters of two 
rival ZANU-PF candidates for the Makonde seat (Mashonaland 
West): the incumbent Kindness Paradza (publisher of the 
shuttered Tribune newspaper) and the President's nephew, Leo 
Mugabe.  The scuffle resulted in the arrest of Paradza and 
two of his supporters as well as four of Leo Mugabe's 
supporters on December 27.  All were released on bail the 
following day.  Paradza became the second sitting ZANU-PF 
legislator arrested this month.  Earlier in December, 
Hurungwe West MP Mark Madiro was arrested following 
skirmishes between his supporters and the supporters of 
Cecilia Gwachiwa, a ZANU-PF rival for his seat. 
 
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Other Arrests 
---------------- 
 
5.  (S/NF) The GOZ-controlled Herald newspaper reported on 
December 30 that four prominent figures had been indicted on 
December 29 on unspecified charges relating to their 
involvement in espionage: Chinhoyi MP and ZANU-PF Provincial 
Chairman for Mashonaland West Philip Chiyangwa (who is also 
indirectly related to President Mugabe), ZANU-PF Deputy 
Director for External Affairs Itai Mach, Ambassador to 
Mozambique and former Consul-General in South Africa Godfrey 
Dzvairo, and Metropolitan Bank Secretary Tendai Matambanadzo. 
 Local newspapers reported that Chiyangwa suffered a stroke 
during questioning and was taken to St. Giles hospital for 
rehabilitation.  However, one Embassy contact reported seeing 
a badly beaten Chiyangwa at St. Giles, and reported that he 
was in fear for his life.  Earlier press reports indicated 
that ZANU-PF Deputy Security Chief Kenny Karidza had been 
seized with the others for questioning in mid-December but he 
was not named among the indicted.  Earlier press reports also 
fingered the British and Israelis as the "hostile foreign 
powers" that had suborned those detained, although the latest 
Herald reporting curiously omitted mention of any foreign 
government.  Sensitive reporting indicates that South Africa 
was the only government involved. 
 
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Comment 
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6.  (C) The recent arrests and general bloodletting within 
the ZANU-PF in the run-up to and aftermath of the Party 
Congress (ref A) testify further to the brittleness of party 
unity and will fuel simmering intra-party resentments and 
paranoia.  The GOZ will likely portray the arrest of these 
and other alleged perpetrators of violence to SADC as 
evidence of its intent to conduct a peaceful election in 
accord with SADC election principles.  However, we fully 
expect political violence to increase (including against the 
MDC should it re-enter the race) in the run-up to elections. 
And consistent with historical patterns here, those who 
retaliate or defend themselves (be they ZANU-PF or MDC) will 
often get punished more than those who initiated the 
violence. 
 
7.  (S/NF) The implications of the espionage case are 
potentially far-reaching.  It will certainly add to the 
paralyzing witch-hunt atmosphere within the party, 
particularly since the GOZ has not divulged details about the 
case that would put to rest the many rumors circulating. 
With respect to foreign policy, the GOZ can be expected to 
keep quiet about South Africa,s role in order to exert 
additional leverage on Pretoria, including in scripting SADC 
engagement on Zimbabwe's elections. 
 
SCHULTZ