US embassy cable - 04QUITO3302

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 003302 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, EC 
SUBJECT: EX-FINMIN MAY REPLACE CAREER DIP AS AMB-DESIGNATE 
 
REF: QUITO 3151 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney, Reasons 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  GoE President Lucio Gutierrez is 
reconsidering his earlier designation of career diplomat 
Roberto Betancourt to head Ecuador's embassy in Washington 
(Reftel).  According to separate Embassy Quito sources, 
former Minister of Finance Mauricio Pozo now appears the 
preferred candidate, although Foreign Minister Patricio 
Zuquilanda, Betancourt's primary patron, is fighting the 
switch.  U.S.-educated, a thoughtful technocrat and 
well-liked in IFI circles, Pozo is a fine choice to represent 
Ecuador in Washington.  Despite our obvious preference for 
the ex-minister and our intention to "lobby" discreetly, the 
Embassy will avoid the appearance of taking sides in the 
brewing appointment battle.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) Over lunch December 15, GoE Presidential Secretary 
Carlos Polit informed the Ambassador that Gutierrez was 
mulling a change for Ecuador's mission in Washington.  Rather 
than Betancourt, for whom the GoE recently had requested 
agrement, the president was considering Mauricio Pozo, one of 
the architects and chief proponents of the GoE's responsible 
economic program.  (Pozo resigned office in early 2004, 
placating Gutierrez's populist, left-leaning opposition and 
perhaps extending the president's tenure.  The transition 
between him and his successor, the ideologically similar 
Mauricio Yepez, was this administration's smoothest and 
reflects the continued close relationship between Pozo and 
Gutierrez.) 
 
3.  (C) Pozo would make a fine chief of mission, the 
Ambassador asserted, extolling his reputation in Washington, 
impeccable economic credentials and prominence in 
international financial institution (IFI) ranks.  Careful to 
avoid the impression of overt lobbying, she also praised 
competitor Betancourt's professional expertise.  The Embassy 
must tread lightly over GoE personnel decisions, the 
Ambassador explained, and not provide grist to rabid 
nationalists on constant alert for signs of "U.S. meddling." 
 
4.  (C) The Ambassador raised the Washington vacancy during 
her December 16 call on Gutierrez.  The president 
unfortunately refused the bait and moved quickly to other 
topics of conversation.  Following up, she hosted Pozo for 
breakfast December 23.  After discussing the Andean Free 
Trade Agreement and Ecuador's recent, positive macroeconomic 
performance, she queried the former finance minister on 
future career plans.  Pozo revealed that Carlos Polit wanted 
him in Washington.  Running the mission intrigued him, 
although he worried that Ecuador's volatile political 
environment meant he would enjoy little job security.  As 
"insurance," he pondered whether to demand a guaranteed 
follow-on assignment at a more stable multilateral 
organization. 
 
5.  (C) Pozo's character, background, and political savvy 
made him a tremendous ambassadorial candidate, the Ambassador 
offered.  Trade issues would dominate the short-term 
U.S.-Ecuador bilateral relationship, with technical Andean 
FTA negotiations nearing conclusion and the difficult stage 
-- obtaining political buy-in from respective legislatures -- 
remaining.  Pozo's previous experience lobbying Ecuador's 
Congress could prove invaluable, she asserted.  While the 
Foreign Ministry already had requested agrement for career 
diplomat Roberto Betancourt, that process could be halted, 
should the GoE desire.  The Ambassador again emphasized she 
must avoid the impression of favoring a candidate, however. 
 
6.  (C) Later December 23, Polit telephoned the Ambassador to 
recount his recent conversation with the president. 
Gutierrez loved the idea of Pozo in Washington.  Foreign 
Minister Patricio Zuquilanda did not, however, and was 
pushing the president to keep his commitment to Betancourt. 
Polit's unspoken (but barely) request was that the Ambassador 
call Gutierrez in support of Pozo's candidacy. 
 
7.  (C) COMMENT:  On both substance and personality, Post's 
preferred candidate for the Washington mission is Pozo; his 
continuing friendship with the president is gravy.  Further, 
our relations with this impressive ex-minister were always 
top-notch and our access immediate, things we cannot say of 
Betancourt.  In this battle, however, we must be stiletto, 
not battle-axe.  First, the optics are terrible -- hint of 
our involvement could easily reach the loser.  Were it 
Betancourt, the Foreign Ministry might leak the news 
immediately, spawning a media firestorm over U.S. 
"interference."  Worse, MFA resentment could tarnish 
working-level relations we need to advance key substantive 
issues (Article 98 comes to mind) and ensure the Embassy 
receives adequate MFA administrative support. 
 
8.  (C) We also worry a jilted MFA could make Pozo's days 
difficult in Washington.  Ecuador's last ambassador, Raul 
Gangotena, too enjoyed a close relationship with Gutierrez. 
Poor dealings with Zuquilanda resulted in his isolation, 
limited effectiveness, and eventual short tenure, however. 
END COMMENT. 
KENNEY