US embassy cable - 04AMMAN10191

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 010191 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/27/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ECON, EAID, PTER, KPAL, IZ, JO 
SUBJECT: KING ABDULLAH'S MEETING WITH CODEL KOLBE 
 
 
Classified By: CDA David Hale for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C)  The upcoming elections in Iraq, the peace process, 
and Jordan's economic situation dominated CODEL Kolbe's 
meeting with King Abdullah in Amman on December 23.  King 
Abdullah said Jordan is working to encourage Sunni 
participation in the January 30 Iraqi election, but voiced 
concern that Iran's perceived influence in Iraq could 
negatively influence the election's outcome.  The King 
expressed his optimism that Arafat's passing presents a real 
opportunity to move the peace process forward, but that Abu 
Mazen would need support to consolidate power.  King Abdullah 
emphasized that growing the economy and creating jobs is 
becoming even more critical as Jordan combats rising 
religious extremism, terrorism, and regional instability. 
Chairman Kolbe told the King that Jordan enjoys strong U.S. 
support, and suggested Congress would favorably consider 
recent Jordanian assistance requests. 
 
2.  (U)  Chairman Kolbe was accompanied in the meeting by 
Representatives Don Payne (D-NJ), Charles Taylor (R-NC), 
Loretta Sanchez (D-CA), Susan Davis (D-CA), House Rules 
Committee staffer Brad Smith, and Charge David Hale.  On the 
Jordanian side, Royal Court Minister Samir Rifai, Planning 
Minister Bassam Awadallah, and spokesperson Sima Bahuth were 
in attendance.  End Summary. 
 
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JORDAN ENCOURAGING SUNNI PARTICIPATION IN IRAQI VOTE 
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3.  (C)  During a meeting with CODEL Kolbe on December 23, 
King Abdullah said Jordan is "on board" with the January 30 
Iraq election and is doing what it could to encourage Sunni 
participation.  The King said he had just seen Iraqi Prime 
Minister Allawi in Amman earlier in the week.  The King said 
that because the new government will be mandated with the 
important task of writing a constitution, it is essential 
that the election process result in a government that is 
inclusive and representative of Iraq's actual demographic 
makeup.  The King highlighted Jordan's concern that Iran's 
influence among Iraqi Shia would negatively affect the 
election's outcome.  He said that the Iranians have told him 
that they have strategic interests in Iraq, and "it is clear 
they're not sitting on the sidelines."  King Abdullah noted 
that the GOJ's "conservative" estimate of one million 
Iranians in southern Iraq is shared by Allawi.  He stated 
that the problem is that the religious elements, such as 
Sistani and Hakim, are influenced by Iran.  If Sistani speaks 
Arabic, "it is with a Persian accent," he added. 
 
4.  (C)  The King emphasized to Chairman Kolbe that his fear 
is not of Shia per se as a religious matter, but he is 
concerned about the possibility of a pro-Iranian alliance 
stretching from southern Lebanon to Iran.  Alluding to 
Bahrain's large Shia population, the King noted that Bahrain 
would become vulnerable in this scenario.  The King stated 
that some in Washington understand this threat, but others do 
not.  The British until now have dismissed this concern, but 
PM Blair is beginning to understand it.  Acknowledging the 
picture he paints could be a "worst case scenario," he 
insisted "it is a major problem if it comes true." 
 
5.  (C)  The King continued: "As a Hashemite and descendent 
of the Prophet, I have no problem with the Shia.  If 
anything, they venerate the Prophet's successors, unlike the 
Sunni.  So I don't have a problem with Shia on my doorstep, 
unless it is a theocracy influenced by Iran."  He claimed 
that the best way to counter Iran's influence is to stabilize 
the Iraq situation.  He added that Iraq has become the 
philosophical battlefield:  "Iran also knows they can keep 
you on your toes via Iraq."  In response to Chairman Kolbe's 
comment that many Shia in Iraq do not prefer a theocracy, the 
King responded: "Yes, but the Iranians are intimidating 
them."  Asked by Chairman Kolbe how to encourage Sunni 
participation, Abdullah said the GOJ is working with the 
western tribes of Iraq, where Jordan has the most influence, 
and has also helped Allawi arrange a series of meetings with 
Sunni oppositionists.  Sistani currently has the upper hand, 
but an alliance between Allawi and Sunnis in western Iraq 
might serve as a counterbalance, according to the King. 
 
6.  (C)  The King pointed to January 2005 as a watershed time 
period, as the two elections -- Iraqi and Palestinian -- 
could take the region in one of two directions.  "If we go 
the wrong way, I can't predict what will happen," he said. 
Mistakes in Iraq were made, according to the King, especially 
the disbanding of the army and the de-Baathification policy. 
He noted that 90 percent of men in Mosul are unemployed.  He 
acknowledged efforts to reverse this are underway, but they 
are slow. 
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OPTIMISTIC ON PEACE PROCESS 
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7.  (C)  In response to Chairman Kolbe's comment that 
Arafat's passing presents an opening for peace, the King said 
he is optimistic.  The King commented that Abu Mazen is a 
strong candidate, but not popular on the street level.  "We 
need to strengthen him and encourage him and Abu Alaa to work 
together," he said. "Abu Mazen's heart is in the right place, 
but the task at hand is to strengthen Palestinian political 
institutions" so the PA can emerge an effective partner of 
Israel. 
 
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U.S. ASSISTANCE IMPORTANT TO COUNTER CHALLENGES 
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8.  (C)  In response to a question from Congressman Payne 
about the GOJ's economic development and plans to combat 
unemployment, the King said Jordan's population growth rate 
decreased from 2.8 percent to 2.4 percent in the last year. 
It was better than expected, but not good enough.  Thanks in 
part to the U.S.-Jordan Free Trade Agreement and Qualified 
Industrial Zones, unemployment in Jordan fell from 16 to 12.5 
percent.  He said that Jordan's socio-economic platform has 
bounced back since the Iraq war, and investment is coming in. 
 He cautioned that much hard work remains, and administrative 
reform is a major priority. 
 
9.  (C)  Asked by Rep. Sanchez about the impact of the Iraq 
war on Jordan's economy, the King noted that Jordan serves as 
the gateway to Baghdad, but that the instability in Iraq has 
discouraged Western investment in Jordan and the region. 
However, he claimed that the major investments in Jordan 
since the end of the war are coming from the Gulf because of 
Jordan's relative stability.  He mentioned that in the 
aftermath of 9/11, many investors from the Gulf are looking 
for investment opportunities in the region instead of in the 
United States.  According to the King, Iraqis and Syrians, in 
addition to Saudis, are buying property in Jordan. 
 
10.  (C)  Chairman Kolbe thanked King Abdullah for Jordan's 
support, acknowledging Jordan's own suffering at the hands of 
terrorists over the years.  He said U.S. appreciation is 
reflected in tangible ways, which he expected would continue. 
 In response to Chairman Kolbe's inquiry about the King's 
discussion with the president on Jordan's assistance 
requests, the King replied: "In ideal circumstances, I have 
no right to ask for more. The U.S. has been generous." 
However, given regional instability, he expected a number of 
"traumatic" years ahead.  "If Jordan is to act as a strategic 
partner, and if you are going to ask me to take risks, then I 
need some help to be insulated -- socially, economically, 
militarily."  He said Jordan is willing to take the necessary 
risks to serve as the hinge of stability in the region, and 
explained his decision to issue the November "Amman Message" 
on Islam, to counteract religious extremism and terrorism. 
Chairman Kolbe told the King that given his strong support in 
Congress and among the American people, he expected his 
requests would get a friendly reception. 
 
11.  (U)  CODEL Kolbe did not have the opportunity clear this 
cable. 
 
12.  (U)  Baghdad minimize considered. 
 
Please visit Embassy Amman's classified web site at 
http://www.state.sgov/p/nea/amman/ or access the site through 
the Department of State's SIPRNET home page. 
HALE