US embassy cable - 04OTTAWA3454

C O N F I D E N T I A L OTTAWA 003454 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/23/2014 
TAGS: AORC, PARM, CA, IAEA 
SUBJECT: CANADA'S OPPOSITION TO A THIRD TERM FOR IAEA DG 
ELBARADEI 
 
REF: A. A. STATE 270920 AND PREVIOUS 
     B. B. OTTAWA 03347 
 
Classified By: POL M/C BRIAN FLORA.  REASON 1.4(B) AND (D). 
 
1. (C) POL M/C followed up on our December 13 conversation 
(Ref B) with Foreign Affairs Deputy Director for 
Non-Proliferation, Terry Wood on December 23. Canada remains 
strongly in favor of a two-term limit.  However, it did not 
have a candidate of its own and others rumored to be 
interested in running for the IAEA Director General position 
had not been nominated.  Unless ElBaradei bows out, it was 
unlikely that anyone would be nominated prior to the December 
31 deadline.  Furthermore, Canada's sense was that support 
for him  was growing, especially within the G-77, but also 
including France, Germany, Russia, and Belgium.  He is close 
to having the support he needs to be re-elected and the G-77, 
confident that the votes can be rounded up, is apparently 
pressing for an early vote. Canada does not yet see where the 
twelve votes needed to oppose his bid for a third term would 
come from. 
 
2.  (C) The key factor, according to Wood, is how forcefully 
the U.S. willing to fight in an attempt to turn things 
around.  Thus far, the U.S. has made its views known publicly 
and privately, but without going after ElBaradei, who is 
viewed as competent and relatively effective by much of the 
IAEA membership.  Any serious effort to force him out would 
leave blood on the floor and might not be successful. 
Lastly, one consideration was that a divisive and protracted 
fight would likely have negative consequences for the 
Agency's ability to carry out its responsibilities. 
 
Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa 
 
DICKSON