US embassy cable - 04MAPUTO1645

UNCLAS MAPUTO 001645 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
FOR AF/S TREGER 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, MZ, Elections 04, DHLAKAMA 
SUBJECT: MOZAMBIQUE - DHLAKAMA DENOUNCES ELECTION RESULTS, 
APPEALS FOR CALM 
 
REF: MAPUTO 1639 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Sensitive but Unclassified - handle accordingly. Not for 
internet distribution. 
 
1. (SBU) On December 23, a day after the National Elections 
Commission (CNE) declared Armando Guebuza and his party, 
FRELIMO, the winners in the presidential and parliamentary 
elections (reftel), Afonso Dhlakama, leader of the main 
opposition party RENAMO, held a press conference in Maputo in 
which he denounced the elections as fraudulent but appealed 
for calm. Reading from a prepared text, Dhlakama alleged 
that the reasons for his and RENAMO's losses were the 
exclusion of voters in RENAMO areas from the registration 
process, deliberate confusion with regard to polling places 
and voter lists, use of intimidation tactics by the police, 
ballot box stuffing, tampering with RENAMO ballots, and 
finally the "introduction of more than one million votes" for 
FRELIMO in computerized tabulations at the national level. 
(Comment: The last accusation is particularly lacking in 
credibility, as the final results were very similar to the 
parallel vote tabulation (PVT) carried out by the National 
Observatory and backed by the Carter Center. The PVT relied 
on local vote records from a representative sample of polling 
places and so was independent of any actions at the national 
tabulation level. End comment.) Dhlakama said that none of 
the 90 RENAMO deputies elected to the Assembly would take 
their seats, adding that he would not join the State Council 
in a position awarded the runner-up in the presidential race 
because he was not the runner-up. He appealed for calm, 
however. Answering a reporter's question, he promised that 
neither he nor any RENAMO member would resort to fighting 
over the outcome. 
 
2. (SBU) Over the past several days there have been reports 
of heightened concern over the reaction of RENAMO to the 
election announcement, although we have not heard of any 
significant demonstrations or protests. According to sources 
in CNE, the Commission postponed by a day announcing the 
election results because of the threat of demonstrations. 
Meanwhile, a small group of religions leaders (Catholic, 
Protestant, and Muslim) plan to call on President Chissano, 
president-elect Guebuza and Dhlakama to urge Dhlakama to keep 
any protests peaceful and urge Chissano and Guebuza to have 
the police react with restraint to any peaceful protests. 
 
3. (SBU) Comment: Although Dhlakama and his aides have been 
saying that they may not be able to control their rank and 
file, we have seen little evidence of tension. Dhlakama's 
reaction is quite similar to the stance he and RENAMO took 
after losing the 1999 elections by a much narrower margin, 
under circumstances in which irregularities had a much 
greater potential to affect the outcome. At that time, 
several weeks after he threatened to boycott the Assembly, 
RENAMO deputies took their seats. Bad feeling over the 
election simmered on, however, and eleven months later a 
demonstration in northern Mozambique turned violent. We do 
not believe tensions here are as serious this time; at this 
moment, with the streets busy with holiday shoppers, such a 
turn of events is difficult to imagine. 
 
4. (SBU) Separately, the European Union observer mission, the 
Carter Center, and the National Observatory all have held 
press conferences or issued statements this week on the 
electoral process. The organizations were very critical of 
many irregularities, including results in some polling places 
that seemed to be the result of ballot stuffing. However, 
all emphasized that the irregularities did not affect the 
outcome of the presidential election, though some said they 
had affected the distribution of a few seats in the Assembly. 
DUDLEY