US embassy cable - 02HARARE315

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000315 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/12 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, ZI, MDC 
SUBJECT: MDC PLANNING FOR TRANSITION 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON.  REASONS: 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  (C) THE MDC HAS ESTABLISHED A FOUR-PERSON TEAM THAT IS QUIETLY 
WORKING ON THE TRANSITION PERIOD, DRAWING UP AN ACTION PLAN FOR THE 
FIRST 100 DAYS, AND DEVISING A LIST OF CANDIDATES FOR KEY 
POSITIONS.  IF ELECTED, MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI WOULD GIVE 
THE FINANCE MINISTRY PORTFOLIO TO PROMINENT ZIMBABWEAN BUSINESSMAN 
NIGEL CHANKIRA, WHILE MDC MP DAVID COLTART WOULD BE APPOINTED 
JUSTICE MINISTER AND MDC SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHMAN NCUBE HOME 
AFFAIRS MINISTER.  IN AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT, RULING PARTY 
STALWART EDDISON ZVOBGO WOULD BE NAMED SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT IN 
EXCHANGE FOR HIS ENDORSEMENT OF TSVANGIRAI TWO WEEKS BEFORE THE 
ELECTION.  TSVANGIRAI WOULD PREFER NOT TO DISSOLVE PARLIAMENT IF HE 
WINS, BUT WOULD INSTEAD FOCUS ON THE 30 NON-ELECTED MPS, APPOINTING 
HIS OWN PEOPLE TO 20 OF THOSE SLOTS AND EXPECTING THE REMAINING TEN 
CHIEFS TO VOTE WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DAY.  THE MDC BELIEVES IT 
HAS MADE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS IN WINNING THE SUPPORT OF TRADITIONAL 
LEADERS IN MASHONALAND CENTRAL AND MASHONALAND EAST -- LONG A ZANU- 
PF STRONGHOLD -- AND BELIEVES IT CAN WIN 50 PERCENT OF THE VOTE IN 
THE FORMER AND 42-43 PERCENT IN THE LATTER.  THE LEVEL OF VIOLENCE 
AGAINST MDC SUPPORTERS IS SUBSIDING IN MOST AREAS OF THE COUNTRY AS 
THE GOZ ANTICIPATES THE ARRIVAL OF INTERNATIONAL ELECTION 
OBSERVERS.  END SUMMARY. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00315  01 OF 02  051446Z 
 
MDC TRANSITION TEAM 
------------------- 
 
2.  (C) IN A FEBRUARY 5 CONVERSATION WITH POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF, 
THE MDC PRESIDENT'S SPECIAL ADVISOR, GANDI MUDZINGWA, SAID THE MDC 
HAS QUIETLY ESTABLISHED A FOUR-PERSON TRANSITION TEAM.  THE GROUP 
IS IDENTIFYING KEY ISSUES FOR THE OPPOSITION PARTY TO FOCUS ON 
DURING THE TRANSITION PERIOD, DRAWING UP A 100-DAY ACTION PLAN, AND 
DEVISING A LIST OF INDIVIDUALS WHO COULD SERVE IN IMPORTANT 
POSITIONS.  THE TEAM IS LED BY IAN MAKONI, A LEADING HARARE 
BUSINESSMAN; BRIAN RAFTOPOULOS, A FELLOW AT THE UNIVERSITY OF 
ZIMBABWE'S INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES AND ONE OF THIS 
COUNTRY'S MOST ASTUTE POLITICAL ANALYSTS; DR. RENEE LOWENSON, A 
CONSULTANT WHO HAS WORKED WITH THE ZIMBABWE CONGRESS OF TRADE 
UNIONS (ZCTU) FOR MORE THAN TEN YEARS AND WHO WAS "IMMENSELY" 
HELPFUL IN SETTING UP THE MDC; AND DR. CHARLES HOVE, FORMERLY A 
SENIOR OFFICIAL AT THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE NOW LECTURING IN 
CONFLICT MANAGEMENT AT A SOUTH AFRICAN UNIVERSITY.  MUDZINGWA WOULD 
NOT BE DRAWN ON THE SUBSTANCE OF THE GROUP'S RECOMMENDATIONS TO 
DATE, SAYING THEY ARE STILL VERY CLOSE HOLD. 
 
MDC CABINET 
----------- 
 
3.  (C) ASKED WHETHER MDC PRESIDENT TSVANGIRAI HAS IDENTIFIED 
INDIVIDUALS TO SERVE IN HIS CABINET, MUDZINGWA SAID SEVERAL 
DECISIONS HAD BEEN MADE.  NIGEL CHANAKIRA, CHAIRMAN OF KINGDOM 
FINANCIAL HOLDINGS -- ZIMBABWE'S MOST SUCCESSFUL INDIGENOUS 
MERCHANT BANK -- HAD AGREED TO ACCEPT THE FINANCE PORTFOLIO.  MDC 
MP AND HUMAN RIGHTS LAWYER DAVID COLTART WOULD BE APPOINTED JUSTICE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00315  01 OF 02  051446Z 
MINISTER, WITH ONE IMPORTANT PROVISO.   COLTART HAS DONE A LOT OF 
PREPARATORY WORK FOR ESTABLISHMENT OF A TRUTH AND JUSTICE 
COMMISSION AND WAS DETERMINED TO SEEK RETRIBUTION AGAINST THOSE 
RESPONSIBLE FOR ZIMBABWE'S CURRENT PLIGHT, ACCORDING TO MUDZINGWA. 
TSVANGIRAI IS CONCERNED THAT HAVING A WHITE ZIMBABWEAN LEADING THIS 
 
SIPDIS 
EFFORT WOULD SEND ALL THE WRONG SIGNALS, SO HE HAS QUIETLY DECIDED 
TO PLACE THE TRUTH AND JUSTICE COMMISSION UNDER PARLIAMENT'S 
AUTHORITY.  (N.B.  PLEASE STRICTLY PROTECT THIS LATTER POINT. 
TSVANGIRAI SHARED THIS INTENTION WITH MUDZINGWA IN CONFIDENCE AND 
 
SIPDIS 
HAS NOT YET HAD A CHANCE TO DISCUSS IT WITH COLTART.)  WELSHMAN 
NCUBE, THE MDC'S SECRETARY-GENERAL, A PROFESSOR OF CONSTITUTIONAL 
LAW AND ONE OF THE PARTY'S INTELLECTUAL HEAVYWEIGHTS, WOULD LIKELY 
SERVE AS THE MINISTER OF HOME AFFAIRS.   ZANU-PF MP EDDISON ZVOBGO, 
A LONGTIME RULING PARTY STALWART BUT STRONG CRITIC OF PRESIDENT 
MUGABE, WOULD BE APPOINTED SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT.  IN EXCHANGE, 
ZVOBGO -- WHO REMAINS VERY INFLUENTIAL IN THE SOUTHERN PROVINCE OF 
MASVINGO -- HAS UNDERTAKEN TO ANNOUNCE PUBLICLY TWO WEEKS BEFORE 
THE ELECTION THAT HE WILL NOT VOTE FOR MUGABE, AND DECLARE THAT 
MORGAN TSVANGIRAI IS THE CANDIDATE BEST ABLE TO RESTORE PEACE AND 
PROSPERITY TO ZIMBABWE.  (COMMENT:  SUCH AN ENDORSEMENT COULD 
ENSURE THAT MASVINGO -- WHICH BOTH MAJOR PARTIES CONSIDER PIVOTAL 
TO THE ELECTION OUTCOME AND WHOSE RESIDENTS ARE CURRENTLY EVENLY 
SPLIT BETWEEN THE TWO PARTIES -- SWINGS FIRMLY INTO THE MDC CAMP. 
END COMMENT.) 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ9553 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00315  02 OF 02  051447Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00  DODE-00  DOEE-00 
      DOTE-00  WHA-00   SRPP-00  DS-00    EAP-00   EB-00    EUR-00 
      FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   L-00 
      VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00 
      PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    IRM-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00 
      PMB-00   DSCC-00  DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00   SWCI-00 
        /006W 
                  ------------------624E61  051448Z /38 
P 051431Z FEB 02 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0876 
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY 
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000315 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00315  02 OF 02  051447Z 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/12 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: MDC PLANNING FOR TRANSITION 
 
NOT NECESSARY TO DISSOLVE PARLIAMENT 
------------------------------------ 
 
4.  (C) ASKED WHETHER TSVANGIRAI WOULD DISSOLVE PARLIAMENT UPON 
ASSUMING POWER, MUDZINGWA SAID SUCH A STEP WOULD BE UNNECESSARY. 
HE NOTED THAT THE MDC CURRENTLY HOLDS 56 SEATS IN THE 150-SEAT 
PARLIAMENT.  INSTEAD OF CALLING A NEW ELECTION, TSVANGIRAI WOULD 
FOCUS ON THE 30 UNELECTED SEATS.  HE WOULD COUNT ON THE TEN CHIEFS 
-- WHO ARE SELECTED BY OTHER CHIEFS -- TO SUPPORT THE GOVERNMENT OF 
THE DAY, WHILE REPLACING THE EIGHT GOVERNORS AND 12 NON- 
CONSTITUENCY MEMBERS WHO ARE APPOINTED DIRECTLY BY THE PRESIDENT. 
ADDING THOSE TWENTY SEATS TO THE 56 THE MDC ALREADY HOLDS WOULD 
GIVE THE PARTY A RAZOR-THIN MAJORITY. IN ADDITION, THE PARTY WOULD 
CONTINUE TO PRESS THE COURTS TO HEAR EXPEDITIOUSLY THE PENDING 
LEGAL CHALLENGES OF ZANU-PF VICTORIES IN 28 CONSTITUENCIES IN THE 
JUNE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS.  (COMMENT:  AVOIDING THE 
DISSOLUTION OF PARLIAMENT WOULD ALLOW TSVANGIRAI TO PORTRAY HIMSELF 
AS A NEW KIND OF LEADER COMMITTED TO REDUCING THE CONSIDERABLE 
POWERS THAT HAVE ACCRUED TO THE ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENCY.  ON THE 
OTHER HAND, THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT THE TEN CHIEFS WOULD VOTE 
WITH THE MDC, AND RELYING ON 76 MPS ALWAYS TO TOE THE PARTY LINE IS 
RISKY.  IT MIGHT ALSO BE DIFFICULT FOR AN MDC GOVERNMENT TO JUSTIFY 
TO THE ZIMBABWEAN PUBLIC ALLOWING ZANU-PF MPS WHO EMPLOYED VIOLENCE 
AND INTIMIDATION TO ENSURE THEIR OWN ELECTIONS -- SUCH AS CHINHOYI 
MP PHILIP CHIYANGWA AND MOUNT DARWIN SOUTH MP SAVIOUR "MIKE TYSON" 
KASUKUWERE -- TO RETAIN THEIR SEATS.  END COMMENT.) 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00315  02 OF 02  051447Z 
 
TRADITIONAL LEADERS SHIFTING THEIR ALLEGIANCES? 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
5.  (C) MUDZINGWA REPORTED THAT TSVANGIRAI HAS BEEN MEETING 
DISCREETLY WITH TRADITIONAL LEADERS FROM MASHONALAND, LONG A RULING 
PARTY STRONGHOLD.  IN THE MOST RECENT GATHERING -- IN HARARE THE 
WEEK OF JANUARY 28 -- A MAJORITY OF THE TRADITIONAL LEADERS FROM 
MASHONALAND CENTRAL PROVINCE TOLD TSVANGIRAI THEY WOULD NOT VOTE 
FOR MUGABE IN THE UPCOMING ELECTION OR TELL THEIR CONSTITUENTS TO 
DO SO.  THE INROADS TSVANGIRAI HAS MADE WITH TRADITIONAL LEADERS IN 
A REGION THAT HAS BEEN DECLARED OFF-LIMITS TO THE OPPOSITION PARTY 
-- BY WAR VETERANS AND ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS -- HAS BUOYED THE MDC'S 
HOPES THAT IT CAN WIN APPROXIMATELY 50 PERCENT OF THE VOTE IN 
MASHONALAND CENTRAL AND 42-43 PERCENT IN MASHONALAND EAST.  ASKED 
WHETHER HE WAS ALSO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT MASHONALAND WEST, MUDZINGWA 
DEMURRED, SAYING THAT PROVINCE WAS MORE "PROBLEMATIC."  (COMMENT: 
ZANU-PF HAS EXERTED CONSIDERABLE PRESSURE ON TRADITIONAL LEADERS -- 
WHO ARE ON THE GOVERNMENT PAYROLL -- TO GET THEIR CONSTITUENTS TO 
THE POLLING STATIONS ON ELECTION DAY.  IF THE TRADITIONAL LEADERS 
IN MASHONALAND CENTRAL MAKE GOOD ON THEIR PLEDGE -- AND IF THE 
SENTIMENTS THEY REPORTEDLY EXPRESSED TO TSVANGIRAI ARE SHARED BY A 
GROWING NUMBER OF THEIR COUNTERPARTS IN OTHER REGIONS -- MUGABE 
COULD BE IN SERIOUS TROUBLE.  THE MDC HAS CONSISTENTLY TOLD US THAT 
IT NEEDS TO GET BETWEEN 30-40 PERCENT OF THE VOTE IN MASHONALAND TO 
WIN.  ANYTHING HIGHER THAN THAT WOULD LIKELY BE ICING ON THE CAKE. 
END COMMENT.) 
 
VIOLENCE SUBSIDING 
------------------ 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00315  02 OF 02  051447Z 
6.  (C) MUDZINGWA TOLD US THAT THE LEVEL OF GOZ-SANCTIONED VIOLENCE 
AGAINST MDC SUPPORTERS HAD BEGUN TO DECLINE NOTICEABLY IN MANY 
AREAS OF THE COUNTRY, ALTHOUGH SERIOUS INCIDENTS CONTINUED TO 
OCCUR. (NOTE:  THE MDC IS STILL INVESTIGATING RECENT REPORTS OF THE 
KILLING OF THREE OF ITS SUPPORTERS AND THE ABDUCTIONS OF FOUR 
OTHERS, AND WILL RELEASE DETAILS AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.)  SUCH A 
GENERAL DECLINE WAS PREDICTABLE, MUDZINGWA SAID, AS THE GOZ IS 
BACKING OFF IN PREPARATION FOR THE ARRIVAL OF INTERNATIONAL 
ELECTION OBSERVERS.  HE ADDED THAT THE MDC INTENDS WITHIN THE NEXT 
WEEK TO SET UP AN ELECTION COMMAND CENTER, ONE OF WHOSE FUNCTIONS 
WILL BE TO INFORM OBSERVER DELEGATIONS AND RESIDENT DIPLOMATIC 
MISSIONS QUICKLY OF INCIDENTS OF VIOLENCE, INTIMIDATION, AND 
ELECTORAL IRREGULARITIES. 
 
SULLIVAN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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