US embassy cable - 04TELAVIV6525

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 006525 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KWBG, IS, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, ECONOMY AND FINANCE, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS, SETTLEMENTS 
SUBJECT: PEACE NOW READY FOR DISENGAGEMENT, KEEPING AN EYE 
ON THE WEST BANK AND ANALYZING THE 2005 BUDGET 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C.  Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d 
). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Yariv Oppenheimer, General Director of 
Peace Now, told Embassy economic officer on December 14 that 
his organization "is very excited" about the disengagement 
plan because it views settlements as a serious obstacle to 
peace.  While the settlers had not yet, at the time of the 
meeting, become very vocal in their opposition to evacuation, 
Oppenheimer predicted they will eventually get violent. 
However, he said, Peace Now will be ready with a campaign to 
counter the settlers' opposition.  In the meantime, the 
organization continues monitoring settlement and outpost 
activity, and is preparing to poll settlers on their opinions 
of disengagement.  Oppenheimer also gave econoff Peace Now's 
preliminary assesment that the draft 2005 budget includes at 
least NIS 500 million for the settlements.  End summary. 
 
---------------------------- 
Revving Up for Disengagement 
---------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Yariv Oppenheimer, General Director of Peace Now, 
told Embassy economic officer on December 14 that his 
organization is "very excited about the prospect of getting 
rid of settlements."  In his view, building settlements has 
been the most problematic step Israel has undertaken, and 
represents an obstacle for peace to move forward. 
Oppenheimer explained that "the Palestinians have to worry 
about terror, and we have to worry about settlements."  He 
related that Peace Now has met with the Yahad Party, Shimon 
Peres and the Labor Party, and signatories to the Geneva 
Initiative in order to establish the "Majority Coalition." 
The Coalition wants to mobilize the 75 percent of the Israeli 
public who support disengagement to push the plan forward. 
The group will limit its activities to disengagement, and 
will not deal with refugees or other final status issues.  So 
far the group has organized two major rallies to keep the 
pro-disengagement momentum going, but, according to 
Oppenheimer, it has limited its activities because the 
settlers themselves have not been very vocal thus far and 
because "the Right is surrendering to Sharon."  He predicted, 
however, that the settlers will resort to violence to 
dramatize the loss of their homes and thereby to get Israelis 
on their side.  Oppenheimer concluded that Gaza disengagement 
presents "a very promising future" and that Peace Now will be 
ready to take more action when it becomes necessary. 
 
------------------------------ 
Keeping Up with Other Projects 
------------------------------ 
 
3.  (C) With respect to the West Bank, Oppenheimer 
acknowledged that new settlement and outpost construction has 
been much lower than he expected in recent months.  He said 
he had expected much more construction as Sharon tried to 
consolidate his hold on the West Bank.  Nevertheless, Peace 
Now continues its various projects as usual: 
 
Project 1:  Monitoring outposts; seeing how many are 
evacuated and which are expanded. 
 
Project 2:  Taking aerial photos every four months to measure 
growth of settlements and to determine where houses are being 
built; in conjunction, sending volunteers to do ground 
surveys to verify the photos.  Oppenheimer said a report of 
settlement activity in 2004 will be issued in January. 
 
Project 3:  Tracking housing tenders.  Oppenheimer noted 
there have not been as many this year as in years past but 
the GOI continues to issue tenders. 
 
Project 4:  Preparing a questionnaire to survey settlers' 
opinions on disengagement.  Oppenheimer explained that Peace 
Now is currently developing the questions with the firm who 
will do the polling. 
 
-------------------- 
Analyzing the Budget 
-------------------- 
 
4.  (C) According to Oppenheimer, one other project Peace Now 
has been working on recently is analyzing the draft 2005 
budget to determine how much money the GOI will spend next 
year to support the settlements.  He commented that this has 
been very difficult because the budget is not broken down 
into geographic regions and because the Ministry of Defense 
budget is classified.  Nevertheless, Peace Now's preliminary 
assessment is that the GOI is transferring close to NIS 500 
million to the settlements through the Ministries of 
Agriculture, Housing and Construction, Industry and Trade, 
and Transportation.  Oppenheimer opined that the GOI is 
currently investing in the territories at about the same rate 
as in years past, including the Gaza Strip, where it is 
treating the area "like it is not going to be gone" until 
disengagement actually begins. 
5.  (C) According to Peace Now's analysis of the draft 
budget, the Settlement Department of the Ministry of 
Agriculture has budgeted NIS 9.409 million to the central 
areas of the Jordan Valley, Megilot, Samaria, Binyamin and 
Gush Etzion, and has budgeted NIS 6.892 million to the 
southern areas of South Har Hebron and Gush Katif.  The 
Agriculture Ministry finances, among other things, 
maintenance of generators in temporary centers where there is 
no electricity, connections to the electricity network and 
investment in infrastructure.  Peace Now states that the 
Department also assists in financing the establishment of new 
outposts. 
 
6.  (C)  Oppenheimer said that the Ministry of Housing and 
Construction has a proposed budget of NIS 36.164 million for 
Maale Adumim and NIS 73 million for Homat Shmuel (Har Homa) 
to develop and market these sites; and NIS 90 million for 
rural building which includes planning, developing, 
rehabilitating and renovating infrastructure, and financing 
the establishment of public institutions.  Under the proposed 
2005 budget, the MOHC would also spend NIS 32 million on 
security in East Jerusalem, and will provide subsidized 
credit to purchase apartments worth almost NIS 1,000,000. 
 
7.  (C)  The Ministry of Industry and Trade has budgeted NIS 
13.097 million in grants and benefits for investment in the 
West Bank and Gaza Strip.  The Ministry of Transportation is 
expected to spend NIS 17 million on the Gilo-Gush Etzion 
Road, NIS 12 million on the Brokin-Ariel Road 5, and NIS 198 
million on Road 45/1 Tsadi Mishor Adumim Road 90.  Peace Now 
notes that the budget for bypass roads is transferred to the 
Ministry of Defense and therefore there are no further 
details available on road construction. 
 
8.  (C)  In addition, Peace Now reports that the Ministries 
of Interior, Tourism and Education also provide grants and 
benefits to the settlements because they are part of National 
Priority Area A, but it did not provide any figures for these 
ministries. 
 
--------------------- 
...And Going to Court 
--------------------- 
 
9.  (C)  Oppenheimer reported that Peace Now has petitioned 
the High Court to prevent leaders of the settlers' YESHA 
council from using their municipalities' funds to campaign 
against the disengagement plan.  He argued that settlers 
should not be using public money for these activities, and he 
expects a response from the government in the next two weeks. 
 
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KURTZER