US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI4064

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004064 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - 
ROBERT PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Cross Strait Politics, Foreign Policy 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS 
 
A) "Armitage's `Landmine' Remarks and U.S.-China-Taiwan 
Relations" 
 
The centrist, pro-status quo "China Times" 
editorialized (12/23): 
 
". However, even though [Deputy Secretary of State 
Richard] Armitage's remarks seemed unfavorable to 
Taiwan, the U.S. policy [toward Taiwan] remains 
basically unchanged.  In the meantime, we also noticed 
that military, economic and trade cooperation between 
the United States and Taiwan are enhancing; Washington 
will assign a military officer to work at AIT; and many 
people are suggesting that both countries sign a free 
trade agreement. 
 
"As a result, it is natural that Taiwan should not take 
Armitage's remarks too lightly, but neither should it 
be seized in fear all the time.  As a superpower in the 
world, the United States' cross-Strait policy is stable 
and will not be changed all of a sudden. 
 
"Given the prevailing neo-conservatism in the United 
States, all Taiwan has to do is to strengthen 
communication with the United States, constantly put 
itself in Washington's shoes, and not take any 
`unexpected' action or be a `landmine.'  In that case, 
chances will be slim for the United States to tilt 
toward Beijing." 
 
B) "It Is Difficult to Understand Why the Pan-Blue Camp 
Is Making a Fuss about [Armitage's] `Landmine' Remarks 
and thereby Belittling Taiwan" 
 
The pro-independence "Taiwan Daily" commented in an 
editorial (12/23): 
 
". But we must point out that the top priority for the 
re-elected Bush administration's global strategic 
layout is to build an anti-terrorism front.  Washington 
needs to seek Beijing's cooperation in its anti- 
terrorism campaign especially when it wants to contain 
the military expansion of North Korea.  As a result, it 
is a serious matter that deserves Taiwan's close 
attention as to whether such a development will lead to 
the United States making more concessions to China with 
regard to the Taiwan issue. 
 
".We believe that the DPP government should make the 
best use of those relationships with our American 
friends in the private sector, which were built when 
former President Lee Teng-hui was in the office, 
especially the relations with those retired U.S. 
congressmen.  We should act proactively to seek their 
support and understanding for Taiwan.  More 
importantly, the Taiwan people should stand up and 
speak out their voices.  They should convey their 
collective will to the U.S. society through a 
comprehensive and in-depth publicity campaign. ." 
 
C) "No More Messing Around with [Taiwan's] Foreign 
Relations" 
 
Journalist Lisa Hsu commented in the centrist, pro- 
status quo "China Times" (12/23): 
 
". Taiwan and the United States do enjoy similar 
strategic alliance values, which will not be easily 
affected by changes in their bilateral relations.  But 
Washington, until now, still believes that President 
Chen has constantly abused the goodwill of the United 
States just in order to gain his personal political 
interests.  The United States does not want to be 
extorted by Taiwan without reason, and it is certainly 
not a good thing for Taiwan either from the diplomatic 
or national security perspectives.  Taiwan is making 
things difficult for its good friend, which without 
doubt, is putting itself into a more dangerous 
position. . 
 
"Facing the increasingly severe and comprehensive 
diplomatic attacks launched by Beijing, does Taiwan 
have a great strategy plan to address the situation as 
a whole and make as many friends as possible [in the 
international community]?  In the face of the fact that 
Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs as well as its 
overseas missions have gradually lost its combat 
ability, our foreign policy makers should no longer 
mess around with Taiwan's foreign relations.  It is 
time for them to ponder on the next step that they 
should take when it comes to Taiwan's foreign relations 
- a major defensive front for the island." 
D) "Consider KMT's `China Complex'" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
said in an editorial (12/23): 
 
"US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage said in 
an interview on Tuesday that a declaration of war in 
defense of Taiwan is a decision that can only be made 
by Congress.  All Armitage's remarks imply is that the 
US is a country in which the rule of law is practiced - 
really nothing new.  His remark about Taiwan being a 
landmine was more controversial.  What he likely meant 
is that the Taiwan issue is so thorny that it might 
lead to friction between the US and China, and could 
become explosive if not carefully handled.  This is 
hardly new either.  If this is not what he meant, 
hopefully he can clarify his meaning more fully to 
prevent a misunderstanding. 
 
"The Chinese Nationalist Party's (KMT) immediate 
reaction to Armitage's remarks was to speak for the US 
by interpreting them as a warning that the US would be 
unlikely to commit forces in the event of war.  The 
KMT's behavior is incomprehensible; on the one hand, it 
says the US will not defend Taiwan, yet on the other, 
it blocked the military procurement budget that Taiwan 
needs to defend itself.  Such behavior indicates the 
KMT is deliberately retarding Taiwan' military 
strength. . 
 
"The worst-case scenario is that the KMT will succeed 
in unilaterally disarming Taiwan, so that when the 
massive Chinese military makes its move, the US will 
face a dilemma as to how to respond militarily.  If it 
mobilizes its forces, the cost is likely to be high; 
but if it doesn't, it will witness Taiwan being 
swallowed up by a totalitarian beast.  Is this what the 
US really wants? 
 
"If it isn't, then the US, in formulating its policy to 
aid the defense of Taiwan, must also consider the KMT's 
`China complex,' and avoid allowing it to be come a 
weak link in the defense of the Taiwan Strait. 
 
"It is encouraging that military officers will now be 
posted at the American Institute in Taiwan, and that a 
security mechanism for the Taiwan Strait has been 
activated.  The US Congress should also amend the 
Taiwan Relations Act to make it more consistent with 
the spirit and condition of the times, and block any 
rash actions by China to annex Taiwan." 
 
E) "U.S. Hesitates to Defend Taiwan" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language 
"China Post" said in an editorial (12/23): 
 
". Armitage's statement about Taiwan being a `land mine 
in Washington's relations with mainland China' have 
dealt a further blow to the attempt to the `green camp' 
to pursue Taiwanese independence. 
 
"The U.S., apparently displeased by Chen's independence 
agenda, now considers his administration an obstacle to 
building stability in the East Asia area.  The U.S. may 
become so impatient with Taiwan as to withhold 
continued support, in which case the island's security 
will be at risk - a possibility that radical 
independence advocates have persistently chosen to 
ignore so far. 
 
"But chances are that the ruling DPP, which has Taiwan 
independence enshrined in its party platform, will push 
on with its provocative agenda.  No wonder a lot of 
observers now believe that war in the Taiwan Strait is 
only a matter of time." 
 
PAAL