US embassy cable - 02BEIJING1019

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIJING 001019 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/05/12 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, CH 
SUBJECT: HU JINTAO IN THE MEDIA LIMELIGHT 
 
REF:  BEIJING 585 
 
(U) CLASSIFIED BY JON ALOISI, POLITICAL MINISTER- 
COUNSELOR.  REASON:  1.5(B,D). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  (C) CHINESE MEDIA ARE GIVING INCREASING PROMINENCE 
TO HU JINTAO IN A CLEAR SIGNAL TO CHINA'S DOMESTIC 
AUDIENCE THAT HE HAS CONSOLIDATED HIS POSITION AS 
CHINA'S NEXT PARTY GENERAL SECRETARY AND STATE 
PRESIDENT.  WE EXPECT HU'S PUBLIC PROFILE TO CONTINUE TO 
RISE AS CHINA MOVES CLOSER TO THE 2002/2203 LEADERSHIP 
TRANSITION.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (U) POLITBURO STANDING COMMITTEE MEMBER AND STATE 
VICE PRESIDENT HU JINTAO IS WIDELY EXPECTED TO REPLACE 
JIANG ZEMIN AS PARTY GENERAL SECRETARY (AT THIS FALL'S 
16TH PARTY CONGRESS) AND STATE PRESIDENT (DURING THE 
MARCH 2003 10TH NATIONAL PEOPLE'S CONGRESS).  OVER 
RECENT WEEKS, CHINESE MEDIA HAVE INCREASED THEIR 
COVERAGE OF HU'S ACTIVITIES.  A YEAR AGO, PRESS COVERAGE 
OF HU, WHO RANKS FIFTH IN THE CHINESE LEADERSHIP, 
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON HIS ACTIVITIES AS PRESIDENT OF THE 
CENTRAL PARTY SCHOOL.  TODAY'S COVERAGE IS MUCH MORE 
LIKELY TO PORTRAY HU IN LEADING ROLES. 
 
3. (U) WHILE CHINA'S STATE-RUN MEDIA HAS NOT ALTERED THE 
FORMAL ORDER DICTATING THAT COVERAGE OF HU COMES AFTER 
THAT OF JIANG ZEMIN, ZHU RONGJI, LI PENG AND LI RUIHUAN, 
HU JINTAO'S INCREASINGLY PROMINENT ROLE IS CLEAR IN THE 
CONTENT AND LENGTH OF HIS COVERAGE.  THE AUTHORITATIVE 
FEBRUARY 4 TV EVENING NEWS BROADCAST, FOR EXAMPLE, BEGAN 
WITH A SEVEN-MINUTE REPORT ON HU'S SPEECH -- 
REPRESENTING THE PARTY'S CENTER, THE STATE COUNCIL AND 
THE CENTRAL MILITARY COMMISSION -- AT A SPRING FESTIVAL 
RECEPTION FOR HUNDREDS OF RETIRED SENIOR CADRES. 
 
4. (U) A REVIEW OF THE OFFICIAL PRINT AND BROADCAST 
MEDIA OVER THE PAST MONTH CONFIRMS THAT HU'S ACTIVITIES 
ARE APPEARING MORE FREQUENTLY AND PLACED MORE 
PROMINENTLY.  SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR, HU HAS 
BEEN REPORTED MAKING APPEARANCES AND "IMPORTANT 
SPEECHES" AT A NUMBER OF SIGNIFICANT OCCASIONS.  THESE 
INCLUDE HIS "IMPORTANT SPEECH" JANUARY 11 TO THE 
NATIONAL CONFERENCE ON PARTY PROPAGANDA CHIEFS (JIANG 
MADE THE KEYNOTE SPEECH IN 2001) AND HIS JANUARY 21 
MEETING WITH PROMINENT AMERICAN VISITORS -- HIS FIRST 
SUCH ENCOUNTER (REFTEL). 
 
5. (U) FURTHER REFLECTING HIS ELEVATED STATUS, HU 
RECEIVED TOP-RANK BILLING AT THE JANUARY 25 CONFERENCE 
COMMEMORATING THE SEVENTH ANNIVERSARY OF JIANG'S "EIGHT- 
POINT PROPOSAL" (WHERE QIAN QICHEN PROPOSED ADJUSTMENTS 
TO CHINA'S CROSS-STRAIT POLICY).  HE ALSO PARTICIPATED - 
- ALONGSIDE JIANG -- IN A FEBRUARY 2 CENTRAL MILITARY 
COMMISSION RECEPTION HONORING RETIRED MILITARY CADRES 
AND WAS "IN CHARGE" AT CEREMONY THAT SAME DAY JOINTLY 
SPONSORED BY THE PARTY AND THE STATE COUNCIL HONORING 
OUTSTANDING SCIENTISTS. 

COMMENT 
------- 
 
6.  (C) WHILE CHINA HAS MOVED QUITE FAR BEYOND THE DAYS 
WHEN ANALYSTS POURED OVER PICTURES IN THE PEOPLE'S DAILY 
TO PUZZLE OUT LEADERSHIP TRENDS, THE REGIME REMAINS 
SURPRISINGLY RIGID IN ITS MEDIA TREATMENT OF ITS 
LEADERS.  FOR DAILY VIEWERS OF THE CHINESE-LANGUAGE 
NEWS, HU'S RISE IN STATURE IS A CLEAR INDICATION THAT 
THE LEADERSHIP TRANSITION IS PROCEEDING ACCORDING TO THE 
EXPECTED PLAN. 
 
RANDT