US embassy cable - 04PRETORIA5501

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 PRETORIA 005501 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2014 
TAGS: SF, PGOV 
SUBJECT: ON A CLEAR DAY THEY CAN SEE 5 PERCENT-LIFE AMONG 
SOUTH AFRICA'S MICRO-OPPOSITION 
 
 
Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Scott I. Hamilton 
Reason 1.4d 
 
1.  (C)  Summary: The ANC's dominance in the April national 
election has raised questions about the future viability of 
South Africa's opposition.  While the Democratic Alliance and 
Inkatha Freedom Party-which garnered 12 and 7 percent of the 
vote respectively-are probably too large and well-established 
to either fold or consolidate in the near to medium term, 
questions linger about the survival of South Africa's smaller 
opposition parties.  Currently, eight parties, which garnered 
between 0.25 and 2.28 percent of the vote, are represented in 
Parliament, and Poloffs over the past few months have been 
able to meet with representatives of five of them.  Their 
insights were extremely valuable, both on their own parties 
and the political spectrum writ large.  What Poloffs gathered 
was that although most small parties are nearly broke and 
recognize that their prospects for growth are limited, a 
combination of ideological zeal and personality politics will 
likely keep most of these parties going for the foreseeable 
future.  End Summary. 
 
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ACDP: THE COMMITTED MORAL WATCHDOG 
---------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C)  Kenneth Meshoe's African Christian Democratic Party 
(ACDP) has been in existence since 1994 and garnered 1.6 
percent of the vote, and seven parliamentary seats, in the 
2004 election.  Bruce Harbour, the party's national chairman, 
told Poloff that while the ACDP's steady growth is 
encouraging (it garnered two seats in 1994 and six in 1999), 
many party leaders were disappointed in the result, as the 
party had campaigned far more extensively this year than it 
had in the past.  Harbour attributed this to the party's 
inability to capitalize on bread and butter issues.  While 
the party has been outspoken on such issues as corruption and 
age of consent laws, it has yet to enunciate clear plans on 
topics like housing and jobs.  Furthermore, Harbour said the 
ACDP is stuck between a rock and a hard place on cooperation 
with the ANC.  Relations with the ruling party are generally 
good-the ANC-dominated National Assembly even voted to send 
an ACDP member as one of South Africa's five Pan-African 
Parliament (PAP) representatives-and the ACDP generally 
supports ANC service delivery efforts.  However, this 
cooperation prevents the party from establishing a distinct, 
independent identity. 
 
3.  (C)  Asked about the possibility of amalgamation, Harbour 
said he did not see it in the cards for the ACDP.  While 
small, the party has a national presence, is demographically 
diverse, and its members are extremely committed (Harbour 
himself draws no salary).  He said that the party refused to 
compromise its stances on moral issues and would only 
consider merging with another party if it shared the same 
positions.  Harbour said that relations with the DA were not 
good, as the DA tried to block the election of the ACDP 
candidate to the PAP in favor of one of its own.  When asked 
about relations with the United Christian Democratic Party, 
which at least on paper the ACDP appears to share many 
values, Harbour said they were touchy, noting dryly that UCDP 
were not very focused on morality issues. 
 
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UCDP: A HOMELAND PARTY IN A CHRISTIAN GUISE 
------------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C)  The United Christian Democratic Party was formed in 
1994 from the remains of old Bophuthatswana National Party. 
The BNP, under strongman Lucas Mangope, governed the 
Bophuthatswana homeland from its establishment in 1971 until 
1994 and was widely known for its rampant corruption and 
toadiness toward the apartheid regime.  After the homeland's 
dissolution, the party reformed under its new name, with 
Mangope still at its head.  Although the party boycotted the 
1994 poll, it contested in 1999 and won 0.78 percent of the 
vote and in 2004, when it garnered 0.75 percent 
(approximately 118,000 votes).  The party has three 
parliamentarians-UCDP Deputy President Kgomotso Ditshetelo, 
Chairman Isaac Mfundisi, and Deputy Chairman Bafithile 
Pule-all of whom flew to Pretoria to have lunch with Emboffs 
in November.  (Note: Mangope represents the party in the 
Northwest Province provincial legislature, but Emboffs 
learned on a visit to the provincial parliament that Mangope 
has not been seen in the chambers since Feb 
ruary.  The MPs said that the party president is 
"indisposed," a likely synonym for "very ill."  End note.) 
 
5.  (C)  The MPs, who adhered to a very strict hierarchy when 
speaking, described the UCDP as a small provincial party that 
is severely short of funds.  Although the party had a 
relatively solid base in Northwest Province (which 
encapsulates much of the old homeland), it had only shell 
structures outside the province.  Hence, Ditshetelo said that 
the party's first order of business is to win control of 
Northwest Province so that the party could show that it can 
deliver services.  However, as with the ACDP, the UCDP 
described a relationship with the ANC in which they work 
together closely on delivery issues, particularly on 
parliamentary committees, but have a hard time establishing 
themselves as distinct.  Mfundisi said that since the 
election ANC MPs have been telling them that they need to 
talk about working together more closely.  When asked whether 
he thought such overtures might be designed to swallow up the 
UCDP, Mfundisi readily acknowledged the possibility. 
 
6.  (C)  When asked about the possibility of amalgamation, 
Ditshetelo said that no other party shared the UCDP's 
Christian, moral outlook and therefore he saw little 
opportunity for greater unity.  Ditshetelo went on to speak 
of the origin of the party's name, saying that when party 
leaders looked at the "prosperity" and "great strides" made 
by Bophuthatswana during its lifespan, they decided that only 
Jesus Christ could have been responsible.  (Comment: They may 
have confused Jesus with casino owner Sol Kerzner, whose Sun 
City resort was almost solely responsible for the homeland's 
limited development.  End comment.)  When asked about the 
ACDP, Ditshetelo said with disdain that the UCDP did not 
share the ACDP's fundamentalist, born-again approach.  He 
claimed that only born-again Christians could rise to the top 
of the ACDP, while the UCDP was more broadly based. 
 
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THE FREEDOM FRONT: A ONE-ISSUE PARTY 
------------------------------------ 
 
7.  (C)  Formed by General Constand Viljoen in 1994, the 
Freedom Front has since its inception sought to be the 
defenders of the Afrikaans language and Afrikaner culture. 
Although it finished fourth in the 1994 poll, with 2.2 
percent of the vote and 9 seats in Parliament, it has 
stagnated since, gaining just 0.80 percent in 1999 and 0.89 
this year.  It has six seats in Parliament.  Poloff met with 
Jaco Mulder, the party's Gauteng leader, who said that the 
party is almost solely devoted to the preservation of 
Afrikaans language rights, particularly in schools.  Mulder 
said that the government's commitment to multilingualism not 
only is hampering students' ability to learn, but also made 
Afrikaners feel like strangers in their own land.  Hence, the 
party's modest goal was to convince Afrikaans-speakers that 
the Freedom Front was the only party that speaks for them. 
The problem, however, is that Afrikaners are increasingly 
voting for the DA because they view the DA as the only viable 
opposition party.  Overcoming this perception is a major 
obstacle, although he hoped the party's defense of Afrikaans 
language rights in Parliament would bolster its support. 
Except for a few very small Afrikaner parties, Mulder saw 
little possibility for consolidation. 
 
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ID: HIGH HOPES FOR THE NEWEST ARRIVAL 
------------------------------------- 
 
8.  (C)  South Africa's newest opposition party, the 
Independent Democrats, was formed in 2003 by former 
Pan-African Congress Whip Patricia de Lille.  Widely admired 
for her independence and outspokenness, de Lille's personal 
popularity helped the party garner 1.7 percent of the vote 
and seven seats in Parliament.  Ideologically, the party can 
best be described as pragmatic populists, with a special 
emphasis on tackling unemployment, although the development 
of clear policies is still at an early stage.  Darryl 
Sutcliffe, an ID staffer in the Gauteng Legislature, told 
Poloffs that the party's goal is to develop clear policies on 
the bread and butter issues and move the focus away from 
Patricia de Lille.  Such a move is necessary if the party 
wants to grow into a national force, with Sutcliffe noting 
that the party has only nominal structures outside of 
Gauteng, Western Cape, and Northern Cape provinces. 
Sutcliffe also said it is important for the party to be seen 
as a constructive force and not consistently 
criticize the ANC.  He blasted the DA for going this route, 
saying its consistently negative statements earned it few 
friends among the majority of the populace.  Sutcliffe said 
he envisioned the ID working with other parties on select 
issues in the national and provincial legislatures, but that 
no party shared sufficiently similar outlooks to consider a 
closer overall relationship. 
 
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PAC AND AZAPO: BLACK CONSCIOUSNESS PARTIES ON LIFE SUPPORT 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
9.  (C)  Significant ideological players during the 
anti-apartheid struggle, both the Pan-African Congress and 
Azanian People's Organization have fallen on hard times since 
1994.  The PAC, which garnered just over 1 percent of the 
vote in 1994, garnered just 0.71 percent in 1999 and 0.73 
percent (and three seats) this year.  AZAPO, which did not 
contest the 1994 election, garnered a miniscule 0.17 percent 
in 1999 and 0.25 percent (and two seats) this year.  The PAC 
since the election has been riven by intense infighting, 
particularly between the national executive and the youth 
league.  Poloff was unable to meet with PAC President Motsoko 
Pheko to discuss party prospects, despite promises by his 
secretary to the contrary.  (Note: Numerous interactions with 
 
SIPDIS 
the PAC have shown them to be highly disorganized and 
difficult to contact.  They are the only major South African 
party to not maintain a website.  End note.) 
 
10.  (C)  Poloff was, however, able to meet with Strike 
Thokoane, AZAPO's Secretary of National Projects.  Thokoane, 
who was inspired to join the Black Consciousness movement by 
his friend Steve Biko, said that while the party's aims are 
similar to that of the ANC, AZAPO was still critical of the 
government's handling of the economy.  Despite the fact that 
party president Mosibudi Mangena serves as Minister for 
Science and Technology, the party had no plans to merge with 
the ANC.  Similarly, while AZAPO and PAC were discussing a 
unity pact, there were no plans to merge.  While 
acknowledging AZAPO's limited prospects, Thokoane said the 
party had always operated on a shoestring, and would continue 
to do so if need be. 
 
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UDM: LOOKING LIKE A SPENT FORCE 
------------------------------- 
 
11.  (C)  Founded in 1997 by former Transkei homeland leader 
Bantu Holomisa and former National Party Cabinet Minister 
Roelf Meyer, the United Democratic Movement was meant to be 
the party that bridged racial and ethnic divides and mount a 
real challenge to the ANC.  Today, it finds itself reeling, 
unable to expand outside its Eastern Cape base or pronounce 
coherent policy.  Furthermore, it was the biggest loser in 
the September municipal floor-crossing, having lost 53 seats. 
 Its share of the vote in the national poll declined to 2.3 
percent from the 3.4 percent the party earned in 1999, and 
they hold just 9 seats in the National Assembly.  Poloffs 
were unable to meet with the party's national chairman 
despite repeated attempts.  Also curiously, the party's 
website has not been updated since August.  Something appears 
to be going on within the UDM, although what is not quite 
clear.  Whatever the case, Holomisa's previous ANC 
affiliation and the party's Eastern Cape base make it the 
prime candidate for a merger with the ruling party. 
 
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MONEY TROUBLES ACROSS THE BOARD 
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12.  (C)  One universal mentioned by every party 
representative is that they all have severe funding 
difficulties.  The ACDP's Harbour said that while the party's 
representation in Parliament entitled it to approximately R2 
million ($330,000) a year in state funding (he said the ANC 
gets approximately R30 million), he reckoned that a party 
needs upwards of R10 million a year to operate and grow 
beyond a marginal status.  Everyone noted the difficulty in 
raising money from private contributions-as Harbour put it, 
most private citizens regard politics as "dirty business" and 
do not want to contribute.  Contributions from overseas were 
almost non-existent, even from South Africans abroad.  Even 
more difficult was raising funds from the business community. 
 As the ANC controls every provincial government along with 
the national government, there is no incentive for private 
business to donate to small parties.  Several contacts said 
they knew of business leaders who are privately supportive of 
their parties, but that they were all scared that they would 
lose government contracts if they were known to contribute to 
anyone but the ANC. 
 
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OUTLOOK: NO IMPETUS FOR CONSOLIDATION AT THE MOMENT 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
13.  (C)  Overall, South Africa's micro-opposition is 
struggling both in terms of finances and members, but the 
parties will likely survive as long as the political will is 
there.  ANC dominance, especially after the merger of the New 
National Party, means that it does not need to spend its 
money and influence to induce any new coalition partners. 
Furthermore, while running on a shoestring, most contacts 
said their parties are careful about not spending more money 
than they have.  Looking at the parties individually, the 
ACDP and Freedom Front appear too ideologically driven to 
fold, while the ID's encouraging early results and enthusiasm 
will likely keep it running in the medium term.  The Minority 
Front, a Durban-based party with a large Indian constituency 
and two MPs, has a lock on a niche constituency and no 
apparent reason to give it up.  PAC and AZAPO are already, in 
essence, ANC partners, and PAC in particular would have to 
sort out its internal mess before the ANC would consider 
gobbling it up.  The UCDP is an ego vehicle for Mangope, and 
while his death could set off a push to join the ANC, 
Ditshetelo definitely seems to have his eyes on the reins. 
This leaves the UDM, which strikes Poloff as the most 
vulnerable to being subsumed by the ruling party.  Such a 
deal, however, would likely be contingent on a Cabinet slot 
for Holomisa, and it does not appear that the ANC, already 
dominant in Eastern Cape, needs the UDM enough to submit to 
such a demand. 
FRAZER