US embassy cable - 04DJIBOUTI1617

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DJIBOUTI 001617 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2014 
TAGS: DJ, ODIP, PREL, SA, SO, SU, YM 
SUBJECT: GUELLEH UNLIKELY TO TRAVEL TO SUDAN; DJIBOUTI 
PREDICTS THAW IN REGIONAL RELATIONS 
 
REF: A. KHARTOUM 1717 
     B. STATE 271223 
     C. SANAA 3144 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Marguerita Ragsdale. 
For reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: Ambassador Ragsdale delivered reftel (B) 
demarche on December 22 to Minister of Cooperation in the 
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mahamoud Ali Youssouf. Youssouf 
told the Ambassador that the meeting in Khartoum on December 
28 is a regularly scheduled one among the self-proclaimed 
"axis" of Sudan, Yemen and Ethiopia. He said it is highly 
unlikely Djibouti's President Ismail Omar Guelleh would 
attend (pending confirmation) and that to his knowledge no 
trip is currently planned to Khartoum by President Guelleh. 
Youssouf also said that Djibouti expects that at the axis 
meeting, Yemeni President Saleh will push for greater 
cooperation with Eritrea, which could likely cause the 
collapse of the axis before the end of the year. The 
Ambassador delivered the talking points on Sudan and Darfur 
for Youssouf's reference. END SUMMARY 
 
2. (U) The Ambassador and the POL/PD officer met with 
Minister of Cooperation in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 
Mahamoud Ali Youssouf to address the rumor that President 
Guelleh would be traveling to Sudan on December 26 and to 
deliver talking points on the U.S. position on Sudan and 
Darfur provided in reftel (B). 
 
3. (U) The Ambassador explained that the U.S. is concerned 
that recent events in Darfur will negatively impact 
north-south peace negotiations, and that Secretary Powell 
recently expressed strong displeasure with the Government of 
Sudan's failure to abide by commitments to end the violence. 
She asked that President Guelleh convey a strong message to 
Sudan about the importance of living up to its promises. 
 
4. (U) Youssouf indicated that the Djiboutian government is 
also acutely concerned about the Darfur situation, but that 
to his knowledge President Guelleh has no/no plans to travel 
to Sudan at the end of December. He promised to provide 
confirmation to the Ambassador, however, no later than 
Thursday, December 23. 
 
5. (C) Youssouf said that there is a meeting in Sudan at the 
end of the month for the Ethiopian, Sudanese and Yemeni heads 
of state. It is a regularly scheduled one among this 
self-proclaimed axis. He said Djibouti had been approached to 
join the axis several times in the past, especially by the 
Yemenis, and has each time declined because of what Djibouti 
perceives as the group's anti-Eritrean political agenda. 
Youssouf said Djibouti told the axis that a regional medium, 
IGAD, already existed, and that meetings promoting regional 
welfare should include all Horn of Africa states, including 
Eritrea, which had not been invited to any of the axis 
meetings. 
 
6. (C) Youssouf added that reports following the recent 
meeting of Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki to Yemen, and 
indications gleaned from the Yemeni president's recent 
declarations, leads him to believe that Yemeni President 
Saleh will use the December meeting to mediate in the 
Sudan-Eritrea and Ethiopia-Eritrea disputes and will carry a 
"very positive, very peaceful message" to Khartoum. This will 
be a clear change in position for Yemen, which spearheaded 
the formation of the axis, Youssouf said. 
 
7.(C) Youssouf said that tensions remain high between Eritrea 
and Ethiopia. He noted that the recent visit of a U.S. 
delegation to Eritrea, and not Ethiopia, raised questions 
from Ethiopia. Tensions are also high between Eritrea and 
Sudan, Youssouf said, and added that if Saleh promotes 
rapprochement it may cause the collapse of the axis. If Saleh 
cannot convince his counterparts to de-escalate tensions with 
Eritrea, Youssouf predicts Yemen will withdraw from the 
coalition. He added that disputes between Eritrea and other 
countries are poisoning regional relations and pose a "very 
intricate problem" in the region. 
 
8.(C) Youssouf said that if South African President Mbeki 
travels to Sudan at the end of December it will likely be to 
address Darfur and to stress the African Union's most recent 
and strongly-worded position on the Darfur crisis. 
 
9. (U) Khartoum minimize considered. 
RAGSDALE