US embassy cable - 04PRAGUE1857

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 001857 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, EZ 
SUBJECT: CRISIS IN RULING CZECH CSSD: PARTY STUCK BETWEEN 
ROCK AND HARD PLACE 
 
REF: PRAGUE 1845 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Renata Sykorova Turnidge for reasons 1 
.4(b) and (d) 
 
1.  (C) Summary.  The initial period of relative calm and 
promise of consolidation in the main ruling Social Democratic 
Party (CSSD) after Stanislav Gross took over as acting party 
chairman this summer effectively ended with its poor showing 
in the November regional and Senate elections.  The elections 
once again brought to the fore the fundamental differences in 
orientation among various groups in the CSSD, exposed Gross's 
shortcomings as the party's leader, and undercut his 
leadership authority.  Above all, the election fiasco showed 
that even a young and (relatively) vibrant leader like Gross 
cannot make up for the lack of a concrete strategy for 
transforming the party and winning back voters.  The CSSD is 
stuck at a crossroads:  it has to make a choice between 
returning to its socialist-oriented party roots, advocated by 
the loose grouping known as the Renaissance platform, or 
transforming into a European-style Social Democratic party, 
with Tony Blair's Labour Party as a model.  However, internal 
disputes and a lack of vision among party leaders prevent a 
real solution.  CSSD disunity promises to undermine the work 
of the already weak governing coalition.  End Summary. 
 
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Gross Defends Policy, Challengers Remain 
---------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C)  The latest crisis in the governing Czech Social 
Democratic Party developed after the CSSD's abysmal 
performance in the regional and Senate elections in November, 
which came on the heels of the debacle in the June European 
Parliament elections.  PM and acting CSSD Chairman Stanislav 
Gross responded weakly, for instance by suggesting that the 
Senate ought to be abolished altogether; many in the party 
criticized Gross's leadership and his three-party coalition 
with the center-right Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) and the 
Freedom Union (US-DEU); there was discussion about the wisdom 
and necessity of CSSD collaborating more closely with the 
unreformed communist party (KSCM).  Gross's lack of control 
over the party became clear when left-oriented Labor and 
Social Affairs Minister Zdenek Skromach announced that he 
would challenge Gross for the top post at the party's 
upcoming March Congress.  After weeks of relative silence, 
Gross surprised many when at the early December CSSD 
Executive Committee meeting he took a resolute stand against 
a minority government with the tacit support of KSCM or any 
outreach to the disgruntled former PM Zeman, and criticized 
the party's parliamentary faction for its lack of 
cohesiveness.  Although he received the mandate from the 
Committee to continue in his position and remain in coalition 
with the KDU-CSL and US-DEU, Gross failed to quiet growing 
internal dissent from the CSSD's left wing and former Zeman 
supporters. 
 
3.  (C) The fault lines between the different interest and 
ideological groups are constantly changing, but Gross and his 
supporters face the biggest challenge from the loose leftist 
bloc that includes the Renaissance platform advocating 
Zeman's return.  Skromach has emerged as the only potential 
challenger to Gross at the CSSD March Congress, but support 
for his leadership currently is limited and he is not seen as 
a natural leader by the disgruntled group.  Gross's close 
ally Petr Ibl recently threatened to resign as CSSD 
parliamentary caucus chair unless intra-party communication 
improves; his departure would be a severe blow to Gross. 
Ibl's threat is only the most visible sign of what party 
insiders tell us is a wave of previous Gross supporters 
abandoning him.  Still, none yet see any sign of a challenger 
who can win the support of the disparate party groupings and 
unseat Gross at the party congress in March. 
--------------------------- 
Party Stuck at a Crossroads 
--------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) In their meetings with Embassy officers, CSSD members 
admit the party is in a deep crisis and risks extinction if 
it does not consolidate and come up with a cohesive party 
program that will win back voters.  The party is stuck 
between the choice of moving right towards the political 
center, or veering left towards cooperation with the KSCM. 
Gross, in partnership with the respected Minister of Finance 
Bohuslav Sobotka, sees the transformation of CSSD into a 
mainstream, liberal European Social Democratic Party along 
the lines of the British Labour Party as the only chance to 
revitalize CSSD.  They estimate that the Czech public 
increasingly views reform as necessary to solve the country's 
economic and social problems, including the poorly 
functioning health care and pension systems, and abuses of 
social benefits, among others.  Gross and Sobotka advocate 
filling the relatively open space on the center of the Czech 
political spectrum, but face opposition from CSSD hard-liners 
who would prefer cooperation with the Communists and a return 
to the party's socialist principles.  This group is 
represented loosely by Labor Minister Skromach, MPs like Jan 
Kavan and Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Vladimir 
Lastuvka.  However, despite Skromach's announced candidacy 
for party chair, the left faction lacks a visible leader. 
According to MP Hana Orgonikova, Skromach is the media face, 
but not a real leader of the group. 
 
5.  (C) CSSD will hold a program conference in late January 
to work out ideological differences and decide on the course 
the party will take in the run up to the 2006 parliamentary 
election.  However, numerous party members are skeptical that 
any real decisions will be made or implemented at the 
conference.  They complain of the lack of expertise and 
vision in the party, pointing out the complete 
non-functioning of the expert commissions that should be 
working on policy recommendations and concepts.  Some 
describe the current stalemate in the CSSD as a "dead 
period", with nothing meaningful happening and the party 
leadership at a loss of how to implement changes that are 
needed.  And below the dysfunctional leadership are the large 
group of 70 CSSD MPs whose main (or sole) priority is to get 
themselves re-elected in 2006. 
 
-------------------- 
Zeman In The Waiting 
-------------------- 
 
6.  (C)  Complicating the difficult situation is former PM 
and honorary CSSD Chairman Milos Zeman, who has not gotten 
over what he perceives as his betrayal in the 2003 
presidential election by Gross and others.  It is unclear 
whether his public attacks on Gross and most of the rest of 
the party leadership are intended to simply encourage Gross's 
opponents, or if Zeman really wants to return to politics. 
While the Renaissance group actively seeks his return, some 
admit that he has passed his political prime and is in fact 
out of touch with CSSD or Czech politics.  Of interest is 
Zeman's continued relationship with President Klaus, which is 
difficult to size up.  Zeman and his wife recently dined at 
the Klaus's residence for "personal reasons," but some CSSD 
members speculate that there is more to the relationship than 
meets the eye and that Klaus wants to help Zeman return to 
politics.  The Embassy is closely watching how this 
relationship will further develop. 
 
----------------------------------- 
Comment:  Keep an Eye on Communists 
----------------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) The CSSD is being squeezed from both sides:  on the 
one hand it is loosing out to the much strengthened 
center-right Civic Democratic Party, which decisively won all 
this year's elections (reftel), and on the other to the 
Communist Party that enjoys reliable support from voters on 
the left.  The KSCM poses a real threat of becoming the 
second strongest party in the country, because its leader 
Grebenicek and others sense the incredible opportunity 
provided to them by CSSD's troubles.  Grebenicek's statements 
earlier this month that the Communist party should distance 
itself from the crimes committed under Communism -- KSCM's 
first public admission that such crimes took place under its 
predecessor -- is aimed at making the party appear more 
modern and acceptable to the Czech public.  CSSD will have to 
come up soon with a viable strategy to maintain a 
long-standing position on the Czech political scene, or risk 
political irrelevance. 
 
8.  (C) CSSD's internal problems inevitably impact the 
governing coalition.  In the past, internal squabbles in the 
largest government party raised tensions within the 
government and threatened passage of government-initiated 
legislation.  There are already signs that nothing much can 
be expected from the current government in the next 18 
months.  The CSSD internal situation played a role in the 
December 20 agreement of the coalition parties' leadership to 
set limited goals for the coming year:  more efficient legal 
proceedings, consensus on pension reform, and ratification of 
the EU constitution.  As discussed septel, Gross's weak 
position will impact on our efforts to secure Czech support 
in Iraq and on other priorities. 
CABANISS