US embassy cable - 04MAPUTO1639

UNCLAS MAPUTO 001639 
 
SIPDIS 
FOR AF/FO AND AF/S 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, MZ, Elections 04 
SUBJECT: MOZAMBICAN GENERAL ELECTIONS: GUEBUZA ELECTED 
PRESIDENT, FRELIMO RETAINS PARLIAMENT 
 
REF: MAPUTO 1616 AND PREVIOUS 
 
1. On December 21 Mozambique's National Elections Commission 
(CNE) announced the results of the December 1-2 general 
elections: FRELIMO Secretary General Armando Guebuza has won 
the race for president, capturing 63.74 percent of the valid 
national vote and FRELIMO has returned to Parliament with a 
strong majority, winning 160 seats, up from its current 133. 
RENAMO leader and Guebuza's opponent in the presidential 
contest, Afonso Dhlakama, won only 31.74 percent of the votes 
- a significantly worse showing than in 1999 when he received 
48 percent of the vote, losing to current President Chissano. 
The three other candidates in the presidential race hardly 
mattered at all. Raul Domingos (a former senior RENAMO 
official) won 2.63 percent; Yaqub Sibindy received 0.91 
percent and Carlos Reis claimed 0.87 percent. In Parliament, 
the 90 seats not won by FRELIMO were taken by RENAMO. None 
of the 21 other parties on the ballot received the threshold 
level of five percent of the national vote needed to qualify 
for a seat. FRELIMO's total was 7 seats short of the 167 
needed to be able to amend the constitution. 
 
2. Voter turnout was surprisingly light, roughly 45 percent, 
well down from 74 percent in the 1999 elections. It appears 
that many RENAMO and some FRELIMO voters stayed home. 
 
3. Technically, the results are not official until the 
Constitutional Council validates them, although this is 
little more than a formality. Under the Mozambican 
constitution this body, made up largely of prominent FRELIMO 
or FRELIMO-leaning citizens, must "analyze" the election 
votes, taking into account appeals and complaints. Despite 
reported irregularities (see previous reporting), we 
anticipate a quick endorsement of the CNE-announced results, 
probably in early January. No date has been set for an 
inauguration, but we have heard January 14, 15 and 18 as 
possibilities. 
 
4. We will provide more analysis of the 2004 elections septel. 
DUDLEY