US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS5366

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 005366 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR EUR/PPD AND EUR/ERA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KPAO, XE, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: EUROBAROMETER: PERCEPTIONS OF U.S. WORSENING 
 
 
1.  SUMMARY:  The latest Eurobarometer poll will gladden 
hearts in Brussels: a growing majority in Europe has a 
positive attitude about the EU and its institutions.  Still, 
weak support in the UK especially will give Eurocrats pause 
as Europe enters a year of referenda on the new Constitution. 
 The poll also indicates a continuation of the worrying 
trends revealed earlier in the fall by German Marshall Fund 
polling: fifty-eight percent of respondents said the U.S. 
plays a negative role in promoting world peace.  END SUMMARY. 
 
METHODOLOGY AND CONTEXT 
======================= 
 
2.  The European Commission,s twice-yearly Eurobarometer 
poll was conducted in October and November 2004, through 
roughly 1000 face-to-face interviews in each Member State. 
The poll also solicited opinions in the four candidate 
countries (Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Turkey) and 
Northern Cyprus.  In the period since last spring's poll, 
there has been an unusual level of political change in the 
European Union: the addition of ten countries to the EU, a 
new Commission and Parliamentary elections, and the adoption 
of a draft constitutional treaty. 
 
MORE POSITIVE ABOUT EU PARTICIPATION 
==================================== 
 
3.  In general, Europeans appear to feel more positive about 
their general well-being and their participation in the 
European Union. 
 
--  Fifty-six percent of respondents are pleased that their 
country is part of the EU, the highest percentage since 1995, 
and up 8% since six months ago.  However, this view is more 
commonly held among the &old8 Member States, while citizens 
of the new Member States seemed to feel it was too early to 
tell, with numbers of neutral answers being particularly 
high.  Residents of the United Kingdom were least pleased to 
be part of the European Union, with only 38% thinking the 
UK,s EU membership is a good thing. 
 
--  The number of people who believe their country has 
benefited from belonging to the EU is also higher than at any 
time in the last ten years ) at 53%.  This change seems to 
be due primarily to previously undecided people firming up 
their opinions, rather than those with a negative view 
changing their minds.  The most positive views on the 
benefits of EU membership were held in Ireland, Lithuania, 
Greece, Belgium and Luxembourg; the United Kingdom and Sweden 
are least positive about the benefits of EU membership. 
 
--  Fifty percent of those surveyed have a very positive or 
fairly positive image of the EU (a slight increase).  It 
appears familiarity might breed contempt: The country with 
the highest perception of the EU is not even a member yet; 
seventy-six percent of Romanians have a positive image of the 
EU.  Turkish citizens also had a positive perception of the 
EU (63%). 
 
--  Perceptions of European institutions were also up 
slightly.  Fifty-two percent of respondents said they trust 
the European Commission; fifty-seven percent trust the 
European Parliament. 
 
--  More than two-thirds of respondents (68%) support the 
concept of a European Constitution (up from 63% six months 
ago).  This is a response to a very general question, however 
(&Are you for or against a constitution for the European 
Union8), and should not necessarily be seen as support the 
for the current draft constitutional treaty. 
 
ENLARGEMENT 
=========== 
 
4.  More than half of the people interviewed in the EU 25 are 
in favor of further expansion in the coming years.  This is 
an increase of 16 points since the beginning of 2004, and 
includes a significant percentage of respondents who have 
changed their views from &against8 to &for.8  Indirectly, 
this may be a sign that respondents so far perceive the 
recent enlargement as a success.  There are a few interesting 
exceptions to the general rule: sixty-two percent of the 
citizens of Austria, which borders four new member states, 
are against further expansion.  Populations in Germany (57%), 
Luxembourg (54%), Finland (52%) and France (51%) are also 
against further expansion. 
 
5.  The Eurobarometer poll does not ask specific questions 
about Turkey.  However, debate over Turkey,s accession was 
particularly intense around the time the poll was conducted, 
and it is possible that the anti-expansion views of Germany, 
France and Austria may not be simply a vote against any 
further expansion, but may have something to do with possible 
Turkish accession in particular. 
 
COMMON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY 
================================== 
 
6.  More Europeans are in favor of both a common 
defense/security policy and a common foreign policy, the poll 
found (respondents are questioned on the two policies 
separately).  Surprisingly, Europeans are more favorably 
disposed to the nascent defense cooperation among EU members 
than to the more firmly established foreign policy 
cooperation.  Seventy-eight percent said they are for a 
&common defense and security policy among EU member 
states,8 an increase of 5 points since the last poll six 
months ago, and the highest level of support seen in ten 
years.  Most of the increase in favorable responses came from 
undecided respondents who changed their opinions to favorable 
ones.  Also a surprise, support for a EU common defense and 
security policy is especially strong among countries that 
recently joined NATO (Poland and the Czech Republic, at 85% 
and 84% respectively). 
 
7.  There is also increased support for a common foreign 
policy, but to a lesser extent; sixty-nine percent of 
Europeans support this concept.  The United Kingdom was the 
only country to record a level of support below 50%. 
 
US ROLE IN WORLD: NOT HELPING 
============================= 
 
8.  The latest poll demonstrates that European perception of 
the United States continues to be increasingly negative.  The 
poll measured European opinion on U.S. and European roles in 
fostering world peace and combating terrorism.  Asked if the 
U.S. tends to play &a positive role or a negative role . . . 
regarding promoting peace in the world,8 fifty-eight percent 
of respondents said the U.S. played a negative role, with 
only 22% saying the U.S. plays a positive role.  Only 
thirty-nine percent of respondents felt the U.S. had played a 
positive role regarding &the fight against terrorism;8 
forty-two percent believed the U.S. had played a negative 
role. 
 
9.  Only three countries interviewed had a majority positive 
opinion on the role played by the U.S. to promote world 
peace: the Czech Republic, Lithuania, and Romania.  Opinions 
on the fight against terrorism are more divided, with a rift 
appearing between &old8 EU countries, which tend to have a 
more negative view, and the new member states, which are 
generally more positive. 
 
10.  European responses to these very focused questions are 
particularly worrisome in light of another recent poll 
conducted by AP-Ipsos.  The poll asked whether respondents 
had a favorable or unfavorable view of Americans.  In France 
and Germany, just over half of those surveyed said they had 
an unfavorable opinion; in Spain, just under half had an 
unfavorable view.  The AP-Ipsos results suggest that 
disapproval of specific American policies may now be spilling 
over into negative views of average Americans. 
 
MCKINLEY