US embassy cable - 04QUITO3260

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 003260 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO USTR BENNETT HARMAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: BEXP, ECIN, ECON, ETRD, PGOV, PREL, EC, Trade, FTA 
SUBJECT: ECUADOR SPLIT ON SUPPORT OF FREE TRADE AGREEMENT 
 
 
1. Summary.  A public opinion poll sponsored by USAID shows 
that about half of the Ecuadorian public has heard about the 
FTA and about half of the public (both informed and 
uninformed) supports it.  Not surprisingly, solid majorities 
believe that the FTA will benefit the U.S. far more than 
Ecuador.  About half of those polled expressed no confidence 
in Ecuador,s negotiating team and the vast majority felt 
that the GOE is not adequately informing the public about the 
process.  Almost 85% feel the FTA should be put to a popular 
vote.  While the GOE flatly opposes a referendum on the FTA, 
an uneducated population and mandatory voting could present 
an obstacle to the FTA if a vote were to take place.  End 
Summary. 
 
2.  As part of USAID,s campaign, a public opinion poll was 
conducted on the FTA between the U.S. and the Andean 
countries.  The poll was conducted from November 16 through 
December 4, 2004.  The sample was 2,673 persons between the 
ages of 18 and 65.  The sample error is  /- 1.9%.  The 
results were mixed and sometimes contradictory. 
 
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Mixed Results 
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3.  Half of those polled had heard of the FTA negotiations. 
About half of those polled, both those who were aware of the 
negotiations and those who were not, said an FTA with the 
U.S. would be beneficial for Ecuador.  Roughly one third 
thought it would be detrimental for Ecuador. 
 
4.  The poll reflects the contradictory gut reactions of 
Ecuadorians to both like and mistrust the U.S.  Two-thirds of 
the sample, without regard to socio-economic class or age, 
saw the U.S. as a friend of Ecuador, but an interested 
friend, a country whose friendship was conditioned by its own 
interests.  While majorities thought the FTA would bring more 
employment (54%) to Ecuador, increase exports (58%) to the 
U.S., and bring more U.S. investment (82%) to Ecuador, a 
majority (58%) also felt that the U.S. would benefit more 
from this agreement than Ecuador.  Moreover, vast majorities 
felt that the U.S. was looking to take advantage of 
Ecuador,s natural resources (74%) and would impose 
conditions on Ecuador that would favor the U.S. market (78%). 
 Far more respondents thought an FTA with Europe would be 
beneficial to Ecuador (70%) than thought the same about an 
FTA with the U.S. (50%).  The perception of benefit from a 
U.S. agreement was slightly greater among people aged 18 to 
35 (51-53%), than among older respondents (46-47%). 
 
5.  More than half (54%) felt that big business would be the 
greatest beneficiary from the FTA.  Politicians came in 
second at 18%.  A likely result of a campaign by small 
business leaders against the FTA was that small enterprise 
was thought by 27% of the respondents to be the group that 
would be affected most detrimentally by the FTA.  Agriculture 
came in second with 18% of respondents, behind both "other" 
and "don,t know", possibly reflecting the fact that 
agricultural interests will likely be among those most 
benefited, as well as those most challenged, under the FTA. 
 
6.  Most people (85%) did not know who was negotiating the 
FTA for Ecuador.  Of those who did (15%), most only knew 
Ivonne Baki, the flamboyant Minister of Trade.  Despite not 
knowing who was negotiating the agreement for Ecuador, half 
gave a vote of no confidence to the team, 22% were confident, 
and 28% were undecided.  Of those who knew of the negotiating 
team, about half still (52%) had no confidence in them, 
although the number who did feel confident increased from 22 
to 37%. 
 
7.  Almost half (46%) felt the GOE was not adequately 
informing the public about the negotiations.  Only 10% felt 
adequately informed.  By far, Ecuadorians received most of 
their information about the FTA from television (72%) and 
radio (9%).  Only 6% gained their information from newspapers. 
 
8.  Not surprisingly, most people thought the FTA should be 
subject to a popular vote (84%).  Of those who thought there 
should be a popular vote, 38% said they would vote in favor 
of the FTA, 30% would vote against it, and 32% were 
undecided.  The large number of undecided voters is probably 
a good thing, since it implies that prejudices are not 
decisive, but this certainly points to a great deal of work 
still to be done by the GOE in getting the word out. 
 
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More To Be Done 
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9.  The USAID campaign has made tremendous headway in 
educating the Ecuadorian public about the FTA.  Through its 
partnership with Comisin Negociadora, about 150 workshops 
have taken place, its Website is up and receiving hits, and 
several events have taken place with Congress.  The current 
phase of the campaign is expected to inform directly more 
than 8,000 persons. 
 
10.  The next phase is currently being planned and will 
involve more Congressional interaction and probably dialogues 
with specific sectors addressing their concerns with impact 
analyses. 
 
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Comment 
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11.  The fact that half of the population supports the FTA 
makes us optimistic that, once an agreement is reached, it 
will enjoy enough support to pass the Ecuadorian Congress. 
The clear desire for a popular vote on the FTA reflects a 
concerted effort by civil society groups including the main 
indigenous organization to compel a referendum on the 
subject.  Their effort to collect nearly one million 
signatures, however, has fallen flat (so far only 35,000). 
Business groups claim they have collected three times as many 
signatures in favor of an FTA (115,000).  The GOE is 
adamantly against a referendum on the FTA. 
 
KENNEY