US embassy cable - 04TELAVIV6455

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 006455 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2009 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, PGOV, LE, SY, IS, GOI EXTERNAL 
SUBJECT: MFA ANALYSTS TO CODEL TALENT: SYRIA IS ON A 
TIGHTROPE 
 
Classified By: Pol/C Norm Olsen for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C)  Summary: MFA Deputy Director General for 
Intelligence and Research Harry Kney-Tal told CODEL Talent 
December 6 that Syria will not relinquish either its hold on 
Lebanon or its relationship with Iraq without gaining some 
concessions from the West to replace them.  With one million 
Syrians working in Lebanon, that country is too important to 
less-economically sound Syria, and the al-Assad government is 
currently strengthening cultural, educational and economic 
ties between the two countries in the hopes of further 
entrenching Syrian influence there.  Kney-Tal and Senator 
Talent agreed that developing democracy in the Arab world is 
perhaps the biggest and most important ideological challenge 
facing the world since WWII, and that it is essential not to 
pursue short-term stability at the expense of this vital 
long-term strategic goal.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (SBU) Senator James Talent, accompanied by Military 
Legislative Assistant Lindsey Neas, Legislative Fellow Lore 
Aguayo, and Navy Senate Liaison Deputy Director Cpt. James 
Stein met December 6 with Harry Kney-Tal, MFA Deputy Director 
General for Intelligence and Research, and Baruch Binah, 
Director of the International Affairs Bureau at the MFA. 
Poloff (notetaker) and MFA North America desk officer Nina 
Ben-Ami also accompanied. 
 
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Paradoxical Relationship 
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3.  (C) Kney-Tal opened the meeting by saying that resolution 
of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is increasingly important 
and adamantly opposed by countries like Iran and Syria that 
are concerned that a settlement would diminish their 
influence.  Calling Syria a paradox, Kney-Tal highlighted the 
contradiction between Syria's opposition to settling the 
Israeli-Palestinian dispute and the  sporadic overtures Syria 
began sending in December 2003 with the publication of a New 
York Times interview in which Syrian President Bashar 
al-Assad called for a return to Israel-Syria negotiations. 
 
4.  (C) Syria, Kney-Tal continued, is only making "cosmetic" 
adjustments to its policy, fearful of doing more because of 
Syria's strategic relations with Iran.  Before Syria gives 
away anything that might imperil that relationship, Kney-Tal 
predicted, al-Assad is going to want "something new" in its 
place.  Furthermore, negotiations with Israel will doubtless 
entail Syria eventually giving up Lebanon, Kney-Tal said, 
something that Syria cannot afford economically.  Here, too, 
Syria would expect to have something in place before making 
any sort of move.  The Syrians do realize, however, that if 
and when the Palestinian negotiation track takes off, Syria 
will be left behind.  Syrian actions and statements now are 
intended to keep Syria in Israel's mind as a potential 
partner, Kney-Tal said, stressing that Syria could be a major 
roadblock to any settlement with the Palestinians if it so 
chooses. 
 
5.  (C) Lebanon remains lucrative for Syria, as more than one 
million Syrians work there and send remittances home to their 
families in Syria.  In addition, many senior Syrian military 
leaders continue to live well off of both illicit enterprises 
(such as drug smuggling and counterfeiting) and legal 
business ventures they developed while stationed in Lebanon, 
all of which they would be reluctant to give up easily. 
Kney-Tal predicted that current Syrian troop levels in 
Lebanon will likely decrease to some 3,000 troops, from the 
current 16,000 troops, in the coming months, deployed largely 
in the Beka'a valley.  Syria is instead building up cultural, 
educational and economic ties, Kney-Tal said, exerting its 
influence in Lebanon in ways similar to those the former 
Soviet government used to control its satellites in Eastern 
Europe. 
 
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Bashar In Charge, But Rigid System Could Crack 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
6.  (C) In response to Senator Talent's question, Kney-Tal 
said that the GOI believes that al-Assad is the one making 
the decisions in Syria, albeit after what Kney-Tal called 
"wide consultations."  The old system of vested interests 
remains in place from the time of his father, Hafez al-Assad, 
Kney-Tal cautioned, and Bashar al-Assad must maintain a 
careful balance between these interests.  Fearing that 
opportunities for progress will be missed throughout the Arab 
world, Kney-Tal lamented the fact that bold leadership does 
not appear to exist presently anywhere in the Arab world. 
Although Bashar al-Assad is nominally in charge, he remains a 
captive of the system.  If Assad shakes the system too 
sharply in the name of democratization, Kney-Tal said, his 
Allawite support base (some 12 percent of the population) 
could bring him down in order to save its prerogatives as the 
ruling elite. 
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"Ideological Challenge Not Seen Since WWII" 
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7.  (C) Kney-Tal called the current situation ideologically 
challenging in a way not seen since WWII.  Europe prefers to 
maintain the status quo, Kney-Tal said, but the United States 
has rejected this course in the Middle East, preferring to 
risk short-term instability in the hope of making long-term 
gains by developing democratic allies.  With this approach, 
President Bush is also challenging the Western alliance, 
which he is pushing to adapt to his strategy, Kney-Tal said. 
Binah added that it is not a question of party politics in 
America -- even liberals are now unwilling to relinquish a 
leadership role for the U.S. in the region and in the war on 
terrorism.  Senator Talent concurred, rejecting any 
suggestion that the U.S. go along with a bad regime, such as 
Syria's, in hopes of reaping short-term gains in, for 
example, Iraq.  The tide of what people in the region want is 
simply too strong, Senator Talent concluded, and it is 
essential for the U.S. to be on side pushing for broader 
democratization. 
 
8.  (U) CODEL Talent has cleared this cable. 
 
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