US embassy cable - 04OTTAWA3382

S E C R E T OTTAWA 003382 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2014 
TAGS: MARR, PREL, CA, Missile Defense 
SUBJECT: CANADIAN GOVERNMENT HAND-WRINGING ON MISSILE 
DEFENSE 
 
REF: OTTAWA 03336 
 
Classified By: JOHN DICKSON, DCM, FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (S/NF)  In a series of end-of-year interviews, the press 
has cast a negative spin on Prime Minister Martin's comments 
on Canadian participation in the Missile Defense Program 
(MDP).  Nonetheless, the government is leaning toward 
submitting the issue for a debate and vote in Parliament when 
it comes back in session in March.  Defense Minister Graham 
has come out publicly in favor of MDP, and Privy Council 
Clerk Alex Himelfarb, the Secretary of the Cabinet, told the 
Ambassador that the government, after agonizing for months on 
the issue, felt it had to "lance the missile defense boil." 
 
2.  (S/NF)  Prime Minister Martin, for his part, is in favor 
of Canadian participation, but for political reasons has had 
to protect his flank by setting parameters, as reflected, for 
example, in his two widely publicized television interviews 
this week reviewing his first year in office.  These 
parameters include his rejection of the so-called 
weaponization of space, no missiles based in Canada, and 
opposition to a major financial contribution by Canada, while 
guarding a "say" in missile defense implementation and 
operations.  In the wake of sensational press headlines 
indicating Martin's opposition to the MDP, Senior Foreign 
Policy Advisor Fried, at the Prime Minister's behest, called 
the Ambassador to reassure him that press coverage of the 
Prime Minister's missile defense statements had taken 
comments out of context.  He confirmed that the cabinet was 
moving the issue ahead.  What was needed from the U.S. was an 
indication of what useful role Canada might play, beyond the 
recent amendment to the NORAD Agreement which assigned to it 
the warning and threat assessment mission.  Ambassador 
Kergin, who had recently been briefed by Raytheon on possible 
placement on Canadian soil of an X-Band Radar array (Reftel), 
would be seeking a more detailed clarification in Washington 
of what further Canadian participation might entail. 
(Comment:  Given the Prime Minister's parameters, something 
like a radar system would be something the government could 
sell to skeptical public as a worthwhile contribution to the 
program.  End Comment.) 
 
3.  (SBU)  Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper told POL 
M/C that his party was ready to support participation in the 
MDP, but was waiting for the Prime Minister to come forward 
with a concept for Canada's role in the program.  In a 
foreign policy address on December 14, he criticized the 
government for its lack of political courage and leadership 
on missile defense and stated that he quote did not want to 
see Canada isolated from any move the United States might 
take to protect the continent unquote. 
 
4.  (S/NF)  A senior Liberal MP (protect) confirmed to POL/MC 
on December 21 that the Liberal Caucus was screwing up its 
courage for a February or March debate on Missile Defense. 
He criticized Martin's dithering and noted that the issue, 
while it wouldn't win any votes for the Liberals in the next 
election, was quote no big deal unquote. Once the fireworks 
were over in parliament and Canada's proposed role and 
caveats made clear, it would blow over.  The MP said it was a 
big mistake to have delayed so long; Martin, who during his 
leadership campaign had been on the record as in favor of the 
program, should have addressed it a year ago, shortly after 
becoming Prime Minister. 
 
5.  (S/NF)  Comment:  President Bush's public and private 
comments during his visit to Canada, in which he said he 
would welcome Canadian participation in the program, have 
moved the debate to the political front burner.  The polls 
show that the electorate is evenly split on the issue.  The 
Prime Minister and the key members of his cabinet are in 
favor, if mainly to help solidify what they see as Canada's 
paramount relationship with the U.S., but the political 
tacticians keep pointing out that it will cost the Liberal 
Party votes in critical urban ridings in Toronto and Quebec. 
With an election expected within the next 18 to 24 months, 
they fear that the handful of seats they expect to lose would 
jeopardize their hold on government.  That said, a limited 
form of participation in MDP such as hosting a radar array, 
might be billed as an extension of NORAD's warning function 
and would probably be politically marketable. 
 
Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa 
 
CELLUCCI