US embassy cable - 04TELAVIV6385

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 006385 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2014 
TAGS: PREL, OREP, KWBG, IS, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS, SETTLEMENTS, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, GOI EXTERNAL 
SUBJECT: EILAND SHARES VIEWS ON THE PALESTINIAN SUCCESSION 
WITH CODEL HAGEL/BIDEN 
 
 
Classified By: DCM Gene A. Cretz for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: National Security Advisor Giora Eiland told 
Codel Hagel/Biden that the GOI is trying to avoid repeating 
the "mistakes" it made when PLO Chairman Mahmoud Abbas was 
prime minister in 2003.  In order to help Abbas succeed this 
time, the GOI, he said, will have to be "more flexible" about 
pursuing militants from the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, who 
present Abbas his foremost security challenge.  Eiland also 
advocated GOI transfer of security authority to the PA in 
areas where the PA says it can take over; a direct message to 
the Palestinian people from Israel's leadership, perhaps in a 
post-election speech to the PLC; trilateral negotiations 
about an Israeli withdrawal from the Philadelphi Strip ahead 
of disengagement; and, steps to boost the Palestinian 
economy.  Eiland complained that Egypt is unwilling to offer 
jobs to Palestinians in QIZs that could be built in the 
Sinai, and asserted that Arab leaders, in general, want to 
perpetuate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which they see 
as protection against pressure for reform.  Senator Feinstein 
pressed Eiland about Israeli settlement expansion.  Eiland 
reported that the GOI will change the route of the separation 
barrier, but that a Cabinet debate on route changes has been 
repeatedly postponed because of the political environment. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (C) Senators Chuck Hagel, Joseph Biden, Dianne Feinstein, 
and Lincoln Chafee (Codel Hagel/Biden) queried National 
Security Advisor Giora Eiland about the Israeli approach to 
the new Palestinian leadership in a December 1 meeting in 
Jerusalem.  Eiland's staff member, Gabi Blum, joined the 
meeting, as did Charge, poloff, and Senate staff and military 
escorts from the codel. 
 
--------------------- 
Helping Abbas Succeed 
--------------------- 
 
3. (C) In recounting the Codel's November 30 meeting with PLO 
Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, Sen. Feinstein commented that Abbas 
seemed prepared to do all that Prime Minister Sharon had told 
the Codel, in another November 30 meeting (septel), that he 
expected of the PA.  Eiland remarked that the GOI is trying 
to avoid the "mistakes" it made during Abbas's brief term as 
PA prime minister in 2003.  Asked for examples of GOI 
mistakes, Eiland cited public statements GOI officials made 
about their expectations for the PA, notably a weakened 
Arafat.  Such statements, he said, embarrassed Abbas and 
helped set Arafat against him.  Another "mistake" Eiland 
cited was GOI reluctance to take the security risks that 
would have left ordinary Palestinians with a sense of change 
in their lives.  "We weren't generous enough," he said, 
quickly adding that deficiencies in the GOI approach were not 
the main cause for Abbas's failure as prime minister.  He 
blamed instead Arafat, Hamas, and the armed Fatah factions 
for Abbas's resignation. 
 
4. (C) Sen. Feinstein said that Abbas had told the Codel that 
he wished to see disengagement linked to the three phases of 
the roadmap.  Expressing surprise, Eiland said that the GOI 
does not believe that disengagement relieves the PA of its 
security obligations under Phase One of the roadmap.  The GOI 
accepted the roadmap, he said, only because its sequencing, 
contrary to that of Oslo and other earlier peace efforts, 
placed action on security before negotiations over final 
status issues. 
 
5. (C) Stressing his recognition that an outsider could make 
policy recommendations but that Israel had to contend with 
terrorism and would bear the consequences of a policy 
failure, Sen. Biden expressed the view that Arafat's death 
provides the first opportunity in over 30 years for realizing 
a two-state solution.  The new PA leaders, he said, "appear 
enlightened" and "appear to recognize the need for a 
two-state solution,"  but their constituency is small. 
Abbas, moreover, has no control over Iran and Hizballah, who, 
Biden noted citing GOI figures, instigate 80% of planned 
terrorist attacks emanating from the West Bank.  Biden noted 
that he had asked Sharon in the November 30 meeting whether 
the PM had refined his security expectations for the PA given 
Abbas's inability to control Iranian/Hizballah interference. 
Biden asked for Eiland's views of Abbas's security 
capabilities. 
 
6. (C) The GOI has to change how it thinks and makes 
decisions about security, Eiland replied.  Abbas's primary 
security challenge, he said, comes from the armed wing of 
Fatah, principally the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades.  Unlike 
Hamas, which can rely on its social activities to sustain its 
political and financial support during a cease-fire, al-Aqsa 
depends entirely on the use of violence for its support.  Abu 
Mazen can dissuade al-Aqsa from using violence and accepting 
financial assistance from Iran only if the GOI is "more 
flexible" and "creative" in its approach to pursuing wanted 
members of al-Aqsa, Eiland said.  Biden praised Eiland's 
pragmatism. 
 
7. (C) Saying she was startled by the poor conditions, 
unhappy faces, and ethnic separation she saw while being 
driven through Abu Dis the day before, Sen. Feinstein pointed 
to the need for Israel to give hope to the "occupied." 
Eiland replied that a number of GOI steps along these lines 
were possible, although the GOI would generally refrain from 
action before the PA elections.  He advocated the following 
steps: 
 
-- Transfering security authority to the PA for those towns 
in which Abbas says the PA is ready to assume control.  Abbas 
will have to take big risks in doing so, Eiland commented, 
adding that "Arab" leaders, in general, are averse to being 
held accountable. 
 
-- Having "Israeli leadership" address the Palestinian people 
directly, perhaps in an address to the Palestinian 
Legislative Council after the PA elections. 
 
-- Giving Abbas "achievements" beyond the withdrawal of 
Israelis from the Gaza Strip, a step that all know Israel 
will take regardless of the Palestinian leadership.  Eiland 
advocated, in particular, Israeli-Palestinian-Egyptian 
cooperation leading to the IDF evacuation of the Philadelphi 
Strip prior to completion of the disengagement plan.  An IDF 
withdrawal from Philadelphi, he said, would allow Abbas to 
say that he had convinced Israel to depart and thereby to 
abandon its intention to keep Gazans in "jail."  Abbas could, 
moreover, claim responsibility for returning to Gazans the 
freedom that they have not known since 1948, Eiland said. 
 
-- Promoting Palestinian economic improvements.  Blum listed 
economic dimensions in which she said that the GOI has 
already made commitments to the World Bank: upgrading 
passages in and out of both Gaza and the West Bank; 
developing industrial zones; and, transferring settlement 
assets.  On the latter point, Blum noted that the GOI 
understands that PA Prime Minister Ahmed Querei'a has told 
World Bank officials that the PA does not wish to take over 
private homes on the Gaza settlements.  This PA attitude, she 
said, would facilitate GOI plans to dismantle the homes.  In 
response to Sen. Feinstein's question, Blum said the GOI also 
planned to dismantle synagogues and transfer cemeteries. 
 
8. (C) Sen. Feinstein asked for GOI views on Egyptian 
proposals to increase the number of Qualified Industrial 
Zones (QIZs) in Egypt.  The GOI, Eiland replied, believes 
that QIZs in the Sinai could provide jobs for Palestinians, 
but gave up pursuing the issue after the GOE had insisted on 
limiting employment in the QIZs to Egyptians.  Blum said that 
the "official" GOE reasons for refusing proposals to employ 
Palestinians in Sinai QIZs included wage gaps between 
Egyptians and Palestinians, the high unemployment rate among 
Sinai residents, and local content laws.  Eiland charged that 
the unspoken GOE rationale is that it does not want 
Palestinians coming to Egypt. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
Promoting a Constructive Approach from the Arab World 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
9. (C) Eiland complained about the "less than constructive" 
attitude of the Arab world in general to resolving the 
Israeli-Palestinian conflict.  Arab leaders, he charged, do 
not want to see an end to the conflict because the conflict 
provides them their "ultimate excuse" for resisting post-9/11 
reform pressures from the U.S. and EU.  He claimed that 
mostly official, Saudi sources continued "until recently" to 
account for 70% of the funding going to Hamas.  Sen. 
Feinstein asked what the U.S. could do to change Saudi 
behavior.  Eiland said the U.S. should point to the real 
nature of Hamas "charities" to urge the Saudis to stop 
funding Hamas. 
 
--------------------------------- 
Dealing with Settlement Expansion 
--------------------------------- 
 
10. (C) Sen. Feinstein asked Eiland why, especially in light 
of the opportunities of the moment, the GOI continues to 
"add" settlements.  Eiland denied that the GOI is "adding" 
settlements.  Internal Israeli political realities, he said, 
limit how far PM Sharon can now go with settlement removals. 
As long as settlers remain in the territories, the GOI must 
protect and support them. 
 
11. (C) Sen. Feinstein noted that she had seen new housing 
going up in Jewish areas as she was en route to Ramallah the 
day before, and that she had heard about the GOI demolition 
of a Palestinian-owned hotel in Abu Dis.  Why, she asked, 
does the GOI continue to complicate chances for peace in the 
future?  Why does the GOI not stop all settlement activity? 
Eiland replied that the GOI does not consider construction 
anywhere in Jerusalem as settlement activity, adding that he 
would not comment on the wisdom of building Jewish 
neighborhoods so close to Palestinian areas.  Later in the 
meeting, Sen. Biden, emphasizing that Israel has no better 
friend than him in the Senate, asserted that there is 
widespread belief that Israel is "expanding settlements." 
This has a real impact, both politically and psychologically, 
on Americans, the vast majority of whom, not just Jews and 
Evangelical Christians, are committed to the well-being of 
Israel. 
 
---------------------------- 
Update on Separation Barrier 
---------------------------- 
 
12. (C) In response to a query about the West Bank separation 
barrier, Eiland reported that the GOI has not yet taken any 
final decisions, either officially or in internal 
deliberations, about changes to the route of the fence. 
Everyone understands, however, that the Israeli High Court 
decision invalidating sections of the route, along with 
international pressure including "understandings" with the 
USG, would require the GOI to change the route, Eiland said. 
He predicted that route changes would soon be presented to 
the Cabinet.  A Cabinet debate has been repeatedly postponed 
"week to week," he said, because of "political sensitivities." 
 
13. (U) Codel staff cleared this message. 
 
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