US embassy cable - 04ABUJA2075

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002075 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: National PDP Chair warns of potential coup, 
President replies 
 
REF:  A. LAGOS 2418 and previous 
 
      B. LAGOS 2513 
     1.  Summary.  A recent heated exchange of letters 
between President Obasanjo and the chair of his ruling 
People's Democratic Party (PDP) has dominated press 
headlines.  This rift has been brewing since the 2003 
elections, and the current crisis in Anambra has aggravated 
it.  PDP chair Ogbeh warns Obasanjo that the conditions in 
Nigeria are strikingly similar to the conditions that led to 
the fall of the Second Republic and subsequent military 
rule.  This public airing of the PDP's dirty laundry may be 
an early indicator of the level of acrimony to come in the 
2007 election cycle, assuming Nigeria's democracy makes it. 
End Summary. 
 
2.  On December 6, Chief Audu Ogbeh, the National Chair of 
the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP), wrote a letter 
to President Obasanjo warning that Nigeria is "drifting in 
the same direction" as the failed Second Republic.  Ogbeh 
claims the Ministers jailed by Buhari's government "were 
suspected to have stolen all of Nigeria's wealth."  Today, 
he warns, "perception is reality and today we are perceived 
in the worst light by an angry, scornful Nigerian public." 
He tells Obasanjo that "the buck stops at your table" and 
calls on him to "act now and bring any, and all criminal, 
even treasonable, activity to a halt...We do not have too 
much time to waste."  The consequence of a failure to act on 
the part of the President would be that "we can, either by 
omission or commission allow ourselves to crash and bring to 
early grief this beautiful edifice called democracy." 
 
3.  The letter was specifically written to address the role 
of the President in the recent crisis in Anambra State (ref 
A).  Despite the fact this crisis seemed to not progress 
beyond its initial burst of violence, the Nigerian public 
has remained engaged on this issue.  A survey of 3 of the 
major newspapers (The Guardian, Vanguard, and This Day) in 
Nigeria for the period Dec 7-14 front page Anambra 
headlines.  Of the major weekend newsmagazines, which 
attract readership through their sensational front covers, 2 
(Newsweek and The Week) of the 4 featured Anambra stories. 
 
4.  Obasanjo reacted to Ogbeh's letter on December 10 with a 
14-page missive.  While much of the letter catalogs the 
actions the President claims to have taken to manage the 
situation in Anambra, he takes personal aim at Ogbeh 
throughout.  First, he opens by saying he is "amused and not 
surprised" by Ogbeh's letter.  In his description of the 
Anambra crisis, Obasanjo points to several differences he 
has had with his party's national chair since the 
President's first term (1999-2003).  Later, in a discussion 
of the July 2003 "resignation" of Governor Ngige, he says to 
Ogbeh, "unfortunately, as in many other instances, you 
failed to do what you should have done as the chief 
executive of the party and rather prefer to insult me not 
only as the President of the nation but also as the leader 
of the party you seem never to recognize or acknowledge." 
Of note, Obasanjo refers to the kidnapping of Governor Ngige 
and his coerced resignation as a "family affair" to be 
handled within the party and not as a criminal activity. 
 
5. On the specific matter of Ogbeh's comparison of the 
present conditions in Nigeria with those that led to the 
fall of Second Republic in 1966, Obasanjo has "taken 
judicial note of the ominous comparisons you made between a 
government in which you participated that was overthrown in 
a coup d'etat and this present administration.  I wonder if 
that is your wish." 
 
6.  Press reports since this exchange have highlighted the 
growing rift in the ruling party.  A party caucus called 
over this feud has thus far been unable to take a firm stand 
on either side of the issue.  The conflict in the party is 
between those who see Ogbeh's letter as an inexcusable 
public criticism of the President and those who accept the 
letter as the "bitter truth on the state of the nation which 
must be corrected to halt the slide of anarchy." 
 
7.  The Anambra crisis is largely an internal party 
disagreement turned violent, and Edo State may not be far 
behind.  In Edo, a PDP faction led by the Governor of Edo, 
Lucky Igbinedion, suspended the national chair of the PDP 
Board of Trustees, Tony Anenih, the state PDP chair, and 
others from the state PDP.  The Anenih-led faction then 
established a rival secretariat in Benin City.  The National 
Working Committee (NWC) of the PDP meeting in Abuja over the 
Ogbeh crisis overturned this suspension on December 14.  The 
All Nigerian People's Party (ANPP), the major opposition 
party, has seized on this additional example of intra-party 
conflict and has predicted that it is only a prelude of what 
is to come. 
 
8. Comment:  The crisis in Anambra seems to have inflamed 
the smoldering dissatisfaction of the general population 
with the performance of Obasanjo, and the regime seems to 
exhibit palpable fear for its ability to maintain control of 
the nation.  While there have long been whispers of the 
possibility of a coup--and even a longing for military 
government by portions of the populace who have yet to 
experience the benefits of democracy--this is first time 
that possibility has been openly aired in the press.  This 
change is disturbing and may portend future moves by the 
President to consolidate his power and marginalize or remove 
those he considers less than completely loyal to him. 
 
9.  Comment continued.  Ogbeh is drifting away from Obasanjo 
and apparently toward VP Atiku, who is increasingly seen as 
Obasanjo's rival.  According to one source, the decision had 
been taken by Ogbeh to go on the attack, hence the first 
letter.  Believing that Obasanjo had already decided to 
remove him, he felt he had nothing to lose.  This also shows 
more clearly the battle lines that may be drawn in the PDP, 
should Nigeria's democratic experiment survive until the 
2007 election.  End comment. 
 
FUREY