US embassy cable - 04ADANA160

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ADANA 000160 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ETRD, ECON, EIND, EAGR, SY, IZ, TU, ADANA 
SUBJECT: SHARP DROP IN SE TURKISH EXPORTS TO SYRIA SEEN 
 
 
1.(SBU)   Summary:  Per local trade data, SE Turkey's border 
trade with Syria is down sharply this year to date, coming in 
around USD 72 million in value.  Last year's estimated figure 
ran at USD 95 million, but reflected likely one-time increases 
in probable Iraq-related trade which business contacts do not 
expect, at least immediately, to be recurring.  From the 
southeast Turkey business community's perspective, Turkish 
exports to Syria have yet to match the promise raised with the 
past year's celebrated exchanges of trade delegations. End 
Summary. 
 
SE Turkey overall export pattern to Syria 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
2.(SBU)  According to discussion with chambers of commerce or 
industry and contacts in the four provinces which trade most 
with Syria - Gaziantep, Adana, Kilis, and Hatay - annual border 
area trade with Syria is likely to be about USD 68 million in 
value in 2004.  These four provinces route their exports through 
the two vehicle/passenger border crossings at Reyhanli in Hatay 
and along Kilis' border, near the chief Syrian cross-border 
trading center of Aleppo.  Another province, Mardin, which does 
some minor trade with Syria through the Nusaybin passenger/rail 
gate, anticipates exporting another USD 4 million in goods this 
year, as it did last year. 
 
Gaziantep's recent trade history with Syria 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
3.(SBU) There is a rise in border trade  between Gaziantep, a 
major SE Turkey industrial city, and Syria, most of which 
reportedly is accounted for by direct business ties with its 
sister border city of Aleppo,  per local Gaziantep business 
contacts. 
 
4.(SBU)  Gaziantep export levels to Syria from 1997-2004 
 
      Year                          Value (in million dollars) 
 
     1997                           64.8 
1998    85.1 
1999    72 
2000    33 
2001    34.7 
2002    22.6 
2003    25.2 
2004    31.2 (first 11 months) 
 
5.(SBU) What is Gaziantep exporting to Syria (in million 
dollars)? 
 
      Year                          Cereals, Legumes     Dried 
Fruit     Textiles 
 
     1997                           4.1 
  0.2                    60.5 
1998                           13.4 
0.16                  71.4 
1999                           17.8                          1 
                    54.1 
2000                           5.4 
                      27.6 
2001                           1.2 
0.6                   29.7 
2002                           0.9 
0.2                   22.3 
2003                           0.3 
0.4                   24.4 
2004                           0.5 
0.8                   30.6 
 
Hatay trade to Syria fluctuating 
-------------------------------------- 
 
6.(SBU)  The Antakya Chamber of Commerce, largest in Hatay 
province, said that it had about USD 8 million in exports to 
Syria in 2003 and predicts that it will record similar levels 
this year.  Nearby Kilis province said that its 2003 figure was 
USD 2 million and it expects about the same level this year. 
Hatay and Kilis primarily export detergent or detergent 
chemicals, agricultural machinery or machine parts to Syria with 
an additional smaller trade in nuts, processed food and kitchen 
wares between Antakya and Syria as well.  The Antakya and 
Iskenderun trade is through the Reyhanli border crossing. 
 
~as Iskenderun sees sharp downturn in 2004 exports to Syria 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
------------------ 
 
7.(SBU) The Iskenderun Chamber of Commerce, which last year 
reported approximately USD 30 million in Syrian exports, is only 
reporting estimates of USD 7 million for 2004.  The differences 
lies in perceived one-time exports of used and new cars to Syria 
in 2003, many of which are estimated to have been bound for Iraq 
from European sources after off-loading at the Iskenderun port 
last year.  (Comment:  This matches reports last year from 
Turkish businessmen working in western and central Iraq of 
considerable flows of European-origin used cars crossing into 
Iraq from Syria.  End Comment.)  The similar year-on-year 
exports from Iskenderun are steel (note: Iskenderun is a Turkish 
steel center.  End Note.); used cars and car parts, such as 
filters; marble and packaging materials. 
 
Adana has steady trade in a wide range of goods 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
8.(SBU) The Adana Chamber of Commerce reports steady export 
levels to Syria this year, basically matching 2003's USD 20 
million.  The Adana region exported a wide array of goods to 
Syria:  plastics; basic chemicals; food and edible oils; 
electronic equipment; alcohol; soft drinks; tobacco; cement; and 
optical and medical equipment. 
 
9. (U)  Baghdad minimize considered. 
 
 
 
 
 
REID