US embassy cable - 04LAGOS2513

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 002513 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/W, DRL, INR 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2009 
TAGS: KDEM, NI, PGOV 
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT OBASANJO ADMITS KNOWING ANAMBRA GOVERNOR 
STOLE THE ELECTIONS; PDP SPIRALS INTO CRISIS 
 
REF: LAGOS 2418 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne per 1.4 b and d 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  Major Nigerian newspapers published an 
extraordinary exchange of letters between President Obasanjo 
and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) national chairman Audu 
Ogbeh.  In his letter, Ogbeh claimed Nigeria was in a parlous 
state, specifically citing Obasanjo's inaction in resolving 
the political crisis in Anambra.  In his rather 
unpresidential and brusque reply, Obasanjo admits to having 
learned that Ngige was the benefactor of a rigged election, 
yet turned a blind eye to this transgression.  Publication of 
the letters has sent the ruling PDP into a paroxysm of 
recrimination, with members of competing factions calling for 
the resignations of their internecine rivals.  Opposition 
parties are clamoring for Ngige's resignation or new 
elections.  Ngige has denied admitting he lost the election. 
End Summary. 
 
----------------------------------- 
Startling Letters on Anambra Crisis 
----------------------------------- 
 
2.  (U)  The December 13 "This Day" newspaper carried an 
exchange of letters on the Anambra crisis between President 
Obasanjo and PDP national chairman Ogbeh.  Ogbeh's letter, 
dated December 6, urged the president to resolve the crisis 
within the state and to arrest the arsonists who destroyed 
numerous government buildings November 10-11 (reftels). 
Obasanjo responded with a 14-page screed, defending his 
actions in Anambra and counter-accusing Ogbeh of failing in 
his duties as chairman to address the root of the crisis -- 
what Obasanjo termed the "intraparty" dispute between 
Governor Ngige and his nemesis Chris Uba (reftels). 
 
3.  (C)  Obasanjo continued in his letter that during a 2003 
meeting, Uba told Ngige, "You know you did not win the 
election, and Ngige answered "Yes, I know I did not win." 
The president writes he was "horrified" at hearing this and 
immediately asked both men to leave his residence.  However, 
since Ngige had been constitutionally declared the winner, 
Obasanjo said he decided to live with the "moral dilemma" by 
only having pro forma interaction with Ngige until the 
governor's term expired; Ngige did the "honorable thing" and 
resigned; and/or Ngige was thrown out of office legally. 
(Note: The All People's Progressive Alliance, APGA, is 
contesting Ngige's election in court.  APGA's Peter Obi is 
widely believed to have won Anambra.  End Note.)  Obasanjo 
claims the substance of this revelation about the fraudulent 
election was reported to Ogbeh who also failed to redress the 
issue.  (Comment: While trying to put the onus on Ogbeh as 
party chairman, Obasanjo is hoisted by his own petard.  What 
action could Ogbeh take to remove Ngige when Obasanjo, the 
nation's chief magistrate, remained passive, notwithstanding 
the criminal admissions he had heard?  End Comment.) 
 
----------------------------------------- 
Letter Fall-Out -- Calls for Resignations 
----------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (U)  Prominent, pro-Obasanjo members of the PDP, are 
calling on Ogbeh to resign.  However, PDP governors (who are 
mostly aligned with VP Atiku) are siding largely with Ogbeh. 
(Note: Increasingly, Ogbeh has been drifting toward Atiku's 
camp and away from Obasanjo.  End Note.)  The PDP national 
secretariat is meeting but has yet to issue an official 
 
SIPDIS 
statement.  All major opposition parties--the Alliance for 
Democracy (AD), APGA, and the All Nigerian Peoples Party 
(ANPP)--are bleating for Ngige's resignation.  AD Director of 
Publicity, Dayo Adeyeye went further than most other parties, 
saying that Obasanjo's revelation proves the PDP rigged 
elections across the country. (Note: The Yoruba-dominated AD 
lost control of most of the southwest to the PDP in 2003. 
End Note.) 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
Ngige Denies Admitting He Stole the Election 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Ngige has publicly denied the president's allegation. 
 Ngige's press officer Chukks Akunna told Polchief that the 
governor "never said such a thing to the president."  Akunna 
added that in his view the President's distaste for Ngige is 
"personal" and that Obasanjo seemed determine to see him 
ousted from office.  Yet in a conversation with the Consul 
General, the mercurial Ngige was much more coy, stating he 
would not allow himself to be drawn into this verbal fracas. 
He preferred to remain silent, letting "people believe what 
they wanted to believe." In a meeting last month with 
Polchief, Ngige all but admitted not having won the election. 
 He said Uba "helped" him considerably. (reftels).  Akunna 
warned that the President may be in for more than he 
bargained since the 2003 presidential and gubernatorial 
elections were held in Anambra on the same day, on the same 
ballot.  If those ballots are false, then so too are the 
returns giving Obasanjo the victory in Anambra, Akunna 
asserted. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
6.  (C)  Ogbeh's letter to Obasanjo was critical but 
professional.  In some passages, it was even statesmanlike, 
within a Nigerian political lexicon that tends  towards 
hyperbolic rhetoric.  Even in this milieu, Obasanjo's 
response is jarring.  The president's revelation that he 
heard Ngige admit to stealing the election, yet did nothing 
about it suggests he has lost his political compass.  In his 
desire to shift blame to Ogbeh, Obasanjo seems not to have 
considered that the public would hold him personally 
accountable for this gross failure to uphold the standards of 
democracy.  Conversely, Obasanjo may have taken a calculated 
risk.  By exposing his passivity, he also revealed Ngige's 
active criminality.  Obasanjo might have figured he could 
weather the resultant storm, but Ngige might not.  Moreover, 
should the nettlesome PDP chairman be swept in the tide, or 
at least made more reticent, so much the better.  Thus far, 
the public mostly appears to view Ogbeh as a "patriot", who 
sought to give the President sage, if difficult, counsel. 
However, Ogbeh's fate is in the hands of the party, not the 
public, and his future is unclear. 
 
7.  (C)  Comment Cont'd.  Ngige is squarely on the hot seat 
right now and is squirming to find solace and support. 
Neither will come in abundance.  However, Ngige is resilient 
and will try to stay in place as long as possible.  How the 
electoral tribunal hearing the Anambra case handles this 
latest information will be telling.  This could well 
determine Ngige's destiny.  End Comment. 
 
8.  (U)  This cable has been cleared by Embassy Abuja. 
BROWNE