US embassy cable - 04MANAMA1885

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 001885 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR DEPUTY NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR HADLEY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, ASEC, ETRD, ECON, MU, IR, BA 
SUBJECT: DEPUTY NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR HADLEY'S DECEMBER 
5 MEETING WITH OMANI MINISTER RESPONSIBLE FOR FOREIGN 
AFFAIRS YUSUF BIN ALAWI BIN ABDULLA 
 
 
Classified by A/DCM Hallie H. Hahn for reasons 1.4 (b) and 
(d). 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (S) Deputy National Security Advisor Hadley met with 
Omani Minister Responsible for Foreign Affairs Yusuf bin 
Alawi bin Abdulla December 5 on the margins of the IISS Gulf 
Security Dialogue conference in Manama.  Bin Alawi said that 
Oman is looking forward to negotiating a free trade agreement 
with the United States during 2005 and foresees no problems. 
DNSA Hadley noted that bilateral counter terrorism 
cooperation was going well, and bin Alawi said that Oman 
would like closer coordination with the U.S. military and 
intelligence services.  Bin Alawi stated that the next 
Iranian president would be a conservative loyal to Khamenei, 
who does not want to repeat the Khatemi experience.  Khatemi 
told Omani officials during a November visit that if Iran 
does not conclude a agreement on the nuclear issue during his 
presidency, it will not happen.  Bin Alawi suggested that the 
international community could use Iran's interest in joining 
the WTO and other organizations to apply pressure for 
reforms.  He noted that Oman's contacts with Israel had never 
stopped and he hoped that Israel would help Abu Mazen build a 
better life for Palestinians.  Bin Alawi agreed to assist the 
U.S. in working with Qatar to improve Al Jazirah's coverage. 
End Summary. 
 
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FTA Priority in Bilateral Relationship 
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2.  (C) Omani Minister Responsible for Foreign Affairs Yusuf 
bin Alawi bin Abdulla told Deputy National Security Advisor 
Hadley December 5 that the bilateral relationship is very 
strong and improving.  He noted that the two countries would 
negotiate a free trade agreement in 2005, and he foresees no 
problems in completing the negotiations.  DNSA Hadley said 
that the FTA is a priority and the administration will work 
closely with Congress to ensure its ratification.  The 
administration has a good track record in getting FTAs 
through Congress.  Bin Alawi said that discussions so far are 
going well. 
 
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Seeking Improved CT Coordination 
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3.  (C) DNSA Hadley stated that counter terrorism cooperation 
is going very well.  The U.S. recognizes that Oman is taking 
some difficult steps, and we want to support Oman in a 
discreet way.  Bin Alawi responded that the purpose of the 
cooperation is to achieve operational success, and Oman is 
working hard on all aspects of CT cooperation.  He suggested 
that CT efforts would be more effective if friendly countries 
developed a network to use against the terrorist networks. 
Joint efforts would be particularly useful in combating 
terrorism financing.  DNSA Hadley agreed, saying that 
cooperating countries often develop operational level 
intelligence that can be used to interdict shipments of 
weapons and WMD precursors.  He promised to take bin Alawi's 
suggestion back to Washington to encourage joint CT efforts 
in the Gulf region. 
 
4.  (C) Bin Alawi said that GCC-level CT cooperation was not 
very good.  Because of strained relations between some 
countries, in particular Qatari and Emirati relations with 
Saudi Arabia, the U.S. may want to consider a regional 
approach other than the GCC.  Oman's greatest CT challenge is 
controlling the movement of ships in the Gulf of Oman between 
Oman and Iran.  Oman is trying to enhance is capabilities in 
this area, and there are discussions between the Omani and 
U.S. military and intelligence services.  Improved 
coordination would be beneficial for the U.S. and the region. 
 
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No Repeat of Khatemi Experience in Iran 
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5.  (S) In response to DNSA Hadley's question, bin Alawi said 
that Iran is now under the control of the conservatives. 
Both of the main presidential candidates - Rouhani and 
Velayati - are close to Khamenei.  Rafsanjani is another 
possible candidate.  Khamenei does not want to repeat the 
experience of Khatemi and will bring in someone who is loyal 
to him.  A council will screen all candidates and those with 
credibility in the streets will be thrown out.  The years of 
a liberal president are over.  Khamenei's main motivation is 
domestic, not international.  The moderates want to abolish 
the "velayat-e faghih," "government by the jurisprudent," 
which is the main source of Islamic ruling legitimacy in 
Khomeini's vision of the Islamic Republic in Iran.  A 
foundation associated with this office controls 20 percent of 
Iran's oil revenue and places representatives into every 
significant organization in the country.  Bin Alawi said that 
the moderates would face tremendous opposition if they tried 
to abolish the velayat-e faghih because of the people and 
resources it controls.  A military revolution would be 
necessary to change the system, and this is not possible at 
the current time.  A new generation would be required to 
abolish the old system, and this will not happen for perhaps 
another twenty years.  Bin Alawi stated that Iran's 
leadership would find a way to buy off student leaders. 
 
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Time is Now for Deal on Nuclear Program 
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6.  (S) Bin Alawi noted that Khatemi visited Oman in November 
and discussed Iran's nuclear program.  He told the Omanis 
that if Iran does not conclude an agreement on the nuclear 
issue during his presidency, it will not happen.  Without an 
agreement, Iran might withdraw from international 
organizations that limit its flexibility.  Khatemi recognizes 
the dangers and so is pushing for a deal with the Europeans. 
He wants the international community to recognize Iran's 
right to pursue nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, and 
Iran plans to build a 7,000 MW nuclear reactor over the 
coming years.  Bin Alawi said that Oman could accept a 
reactor, but because of Iran's military ambitions, could not 
rule out Tehran's possible development of nuclear weapons. 
 
7.  (S) Bin Alawi said that Khatemi believes the west let him 
down; he received praise, but nothing substantial.  Bin Alawi 
suggested that the international community could use Iran's 
interest in joining the WTO and other organizations to apply 
pressure for reforms.  DNSA Hadley acknowledged that using 
the accession process could be a way to  pressure Iran. 
 
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Support for Abu Mazen 
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8.  (C) DNSA Hadley stated that the President is focused on 
the Middle East and sees some opportunities, particularly in 
the peace process.  PM Sharon recognizes that there is no 
shortcut from Palestinian elections to final status 
negotiations and wants to walk through the roadmap, if 
conditions permit.  He noted that Palestinian Finance 
Minister Fayyad has to beg for money to pay his budget each 
month.  The international community should do more to help 
him.  Bin Alawi said that Oman would do so, and hopes that 
Abu Mazen is elected president of the Palestinian Authority. 
Israel should help Abu Mazen build a better life for his 
people. 
 
9.  (C) DNSA Hadley suggested that Oman should allow the 
Israeli trade mission to return to the country once progress 
is made on a peace settlement.  Bin Alawi said that Oman's 
contacts with Israel had never stopped.  A GOI official is 
present in Oman as part of the Middle East Desalinization 
Resource Center - a holdover from the days of the Track Two 
peace process.  Bin Alawi met with Israeli Foreign Minister 
Shalom in New York and they discussed the future of the peace 
process.  DNSA Hadley proposed that Oman raise the visibility 
of these contacts when a process is underway between the 
Israelis and Palestinians. 
 
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Work Al Jazirah Issue Quietly 
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10.  (C) Bin Alawi mentioned that Oman shares U.S. concerns 
about Al Jazirah.  He said there is no point in speaking 
publicly about the problem; this should be done quietly.  He 
offered to work with us and the Qataris.  DNSA Hadley said 
that Al Jazirah is very troublesome.  Americans die in Iraq 
because of Al Jazirah coverage.  He said we would try to work 
this issue quietly and along with the Omanis. 
 
11.  (U) Baghdad minimize considered. 
 
12.  (C) The NSC cleared this message. 
 
MONROE