US embassy cable - 04ABUJA2068

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002068 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/SPG AND PM/RSAT 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PHUM, MARR, EAID, PREF, PGOV, SU, NI, DARFUR 
SUBJECT: DARFUR PEACE TALKS: STATUS REPORT 
 
REF: ABUJA 2060 
 
Classified By: Acting Political Counsellor Russell J. Hanks for reasons 
 1.5 b AND d. 
 
1. (C) Summary:  Reftel described fragility of African 
Union-led peace talks on Darfur due to intense fighting in 
Darfur.   AU and international observers met with the SLM on 
December 14 and with the JEM and GOS on December 15.  The CFC 
representative to the talks reported that Sudanese Government 
troops continue on the offensive despite attempts by the 
AUCFC to convince them to withdraw their troops and curb the 
GS-supported militia.  Special envoy Kingibe and acting chair 
Ibok adopted a tough stance, reminding the GOS delegation 
that the AU and the international partners would hold the GOS 
responsible if the AU was forced to suspend the present round 
of talks.  A member of the GOS delegation told us that the 
government was encouraged and emboldened by its agreement 
with the UN and by UN Special Rep Pronk's comments and 
believed it could play for time and get away with its 
aggression.   CFC chairman Okonkwo is due to arrive on 
December 16, at which time the Joint Commission will meet. 
AU has repeated that, if no progress is made by December 17, 
it will consider the present round finished and inform the AU 
Peace and Security Council and the UNSC.    End summary. 
 
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AU - SLM/A Meeting 
-------------------------- 
 
2. (C) During a consultation meeting with the SLM/A, acting 
Chair Ibok reminded the members that walking away is not an 
option and that they should remain and talk if there is to be 
any successful conclusion.   He told them that General 
Okonkwo would address their concerns about the AU, but that 
he expected them to remain committed to the peace process and 
to respect the agreements and protocols already signed.  SLM 
leader Gabar Dosa replied that the SLM was surprised that the 
AU and international community had not already suspended the 
talks in light of the blatant GOS offensive in Darfur on the 
eve of the talks.  He asked that the AU consider how it would 
implement agreements to ensure that the GOS would respect 
those already reached.  Dosa said that there must be real 
progress by January 31 or it will be back to square one - 
i.e. war.  Citing examples, Adam Shogar said that the SLM had 
signed other agreements, which were immediately violated by 
the GOS.  He said that the AU and international community 
were not doing enough to protect civilians and, eight months 
after the N'djamena meeting, were unable to stop the killing 
and genocide.  The SLM, he emphasized, wants real action on 
the ground. and if not, it will defend itself and its people. 
 Special envoy Kingibe replied that pressure must be put on 
the GOS and that the AU would soon have its full force 
complement - including police co-located with Sudanese 
police.  He then read a no-nonsense letter from General 
Okonkwo to the Sudanese military commander in South Darfur 
concerning the GOS "clear the roads" policy. 
 
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AU-JEM Meeting 
--------------------- 
 
3. (C)  AU and International Community met with JEM on 
December 15.  Ibok informed the JEM that the Joint Commission 
would meet on December 16 and that the AU was strengthening 
its position with the GOS.   He reminded them that the 
November JC meeting  required that the GOS disarm the 
Jinjaweed, that the parties reveal their positions, and that 
the GOS end its violations.  He said he hoped that the 
present round of talks could soon return to the agenda, adopt 
a Declaration of Principles, and move to a political and 
socio-economic agenda consistent with the Naivasha agreement. 
  JEM spokesman Turgod Lissan replied that the GOS on-going 
offensive has complicated the situation on the ground and 
affected chances for peace.   He then read a letter from the 
Western Region Military Commander in El Fasher outlining 
actions to clear the roads in line with the GOS agreement 
with the UN.  The letter requested the GOS commanders to 
notify SLM and JEM to leave areas they occupied after April 8 
within 4 hours.  He read a list of towns and villages which 
covered the entire area of South and North Darfur.  The GOS, 
said Lissan, knows what it is doing.  It is not a question of 
violations, but rather a declaration of war.  Kingibe said 
that the AU and international community are engaging the GOS 
and urged the JEM to take a holistic view and let the AU play 
its part.  Lissan demanded that the GOS immediately withdraw 
its forces and stop bombardments - all of which, he said, 
could be done in a day. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
Between the meetings: the AU and Partners 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
4. (C)   LTC Eric Tele (Kenya), representing General Okonkwo, 
briefed the AU and partners following the JEM meeting.  Tele 
said that his report from the AU Nyala sector commander 
revealed that the GOS was holding still in Ishma, but that 
the militia had moved out ahead, burning villages in clear 
view of the GOS and some AU observers.  He said that the GOS 
letter demanding that the SLM and JEM leave the named areas 
was provocative, and that he was fully aware that the groups 
had occupied some of the towns for a long time.  Chadian rep 
and Joint Commission Chair General Mohamed Ali said that the 
AU and partners should have the courage to say there is 
aggression and to apply strong pressure on the GOS.  US rep 
reminded all that the GOS should be held responsible for any 
collapse of the present talks.  Kingibe candidly told the 
group that the strategy of the GOS in its present offensive 
is to test the waters and international reaction and move on 
to even more aggressive tactics.  He asked the international 
representatives to urge their capitals to intervene, allowing 
that the SLM and JEM will not enter into discussions until 
there are changes of the ground.  If there is no progress by 
December 16 or 17, he said, it would be best to wrap up the 
session and issue a statement. 
 
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AU-GOS Meeting 
--------------------- 
 
5. (C) The AU met with a greatly enlarged GOS delegation - 
including MG Izmet as the new JC representative - in hopes of 
receiving a clear reply to its request that the GOS withdraw 
its forces and end its offensive (reftel).  LTC Tele repeated 
his situation report.  Without mincing words, Ibok told the 
GOS that unless the military offensive - whatever its 
rationale - is ended, the AU would be unable to continue the 
talks.  It is, he said, the collective view that the process 
is in deep jeopardy of being undermined and broken down due 
to the GOS offensive.  He asked that the delegation convey 
these concerns to the GOS.  The AU and its international 
partners, he said, needed a clear reply by December 17.  GOS 
Chief delegate Kalifa replied that he had sent a letter to 
the Chair and made his case once again that the parties 
should all withdraw to their positions on April 8.  Despite 
Ibok's attempts to elicit a clear reply, none was 
forthcoming.  Members of the international community voiced 
their support for the AU position. 
 
6. (C) We met privately with one of the GOS delegates the 
evening of December 14.  The delegate, who is from Darfur and 
not always sympathetic to the GOS position, said that the 
Government was encouraged by the UN agreement and especially 
by remarks by Special Rep Pronk.  It was also, he said, 
encouraged by comments coming out of the AU summit.  The 
government was shocked by the strong reaction of the AU and 
international community to the latest offensive, he added, 
and would try to play a game of semantics and smoke and 
mirrors, hoping to wear down the AU and its partners.  The 
GOS, he said, believes it can wait out the international 
community, which will do nothing to endanger the Naivasha 
process.   He urged us to continue the pressure on the 
government and "not to blink."   SLM and JEM have told us 
they will not return to talks with the GOS until there are 
concrete results on the ground in Darfur.   Kingibe has 
spoken with SLM leader Minawi who said he would reconsider 
the SLM position. 
 
7. (U) Minimize considered. 
FUREY