US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3987

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003987 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/RSP/TC 
DEPT PASS AIT/W 
/ 
FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION IN SOUTH -- LITTLE CHANGE, BUT A FEW 
SURPRISES 
 
REF: A) TAIPEI 3944 (AIT/K) B) TAIPEI 3917 (AIT/K) 
 
Classified By: ROBERT W. FORDEN, AIT KAOHSIUNG PRINCIPAL OFFICER. 
REASON:  1.4(B/D). 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.  (C) While Southern Taiwan voted more or less as expected 
in the December 11 legislative election, with virtually no 
change in the overall Pan-Green/Pan-Blue ratio of legislative 
seats, there were a few surprises in individual races.  Two 
independent candidates in Kaohsiung City who polled very high 
prior to the election both lost, showing how important party 
organizations were in mobilizing the vote in an election with 
very low turnout.  A surprisingly strong showing by People 
First Party (PFP) candidates in Kaohsiung and Tainan cities 
was less about the PFP than about the individuals running and 
the methods they employed to mobilize votes.  The 
surprisingly weak performance of the Taiwan Solidarity Union 
(TSU), which lost a seat overall in the South, was due 
primarily to over-nomination of Pan Green candidates and poor 
vote allocation coordination with the ruling party.  Contrary 
to the widespread view now circulating that the election 
result marked a Pan-Green setback, policy and party 
affiliations actually played little role in the outcomes of 
most of the local races in the South.  End Summary. 
 
Southern Races Overall As Expected 
---------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) In contrast to the rest of Taiwan, the southern vote 
in the December 11 Legislative Yuan (LY) election was very 
much as analysts had predicted (reftels).  There was 
virtually no change in the ratio of seats between the 
Pan-Green and Pan-Blue camps.  Out of the 48 seats in 
Southern Taiwan up for grabs, the DPP took 25, KMT 13, PFP 5 
and TSU 2.  While the DPP seat total remained unchanged, the 
KMT and TSU each lost one seat, and the PFP picked up one 
(two, if you count a PFP seat that had been vacant).  The 
result was consistent with most pre-election estimates which 
saw the South as an area in which the Pan-Green had done so 
well four years ago, that it was unlikely to be able to 
improve on its existing 60/40 dominance of the Southern 
Taiwan LY seats. 
 
Leading Independents in Surprise Losses 
--------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) There were surprises, however, in individual races. 
Two independents in Kaohsiung City who had polled very high 
prior to the election both lost.  Independent incumbent LY 
member Su Ying-kuei, a former TSU legislator who was expelled 
from the TSU a year ago for accusing colleagues of 
corruption, had made a strong impression as a "clean 
political reformer" and made a strong showing in pre-election 
public opinion polls in Kaohsiung's northern district. 
However, on election day he came in eighth, with less than 
half the votes needed to win one of that district's six 
seats.  In Kaohsiung's southern district, popular television 
talkshow hostess, Cheng Li-wen, had likewise polled well 
among her district's 11 candidates, only to come in seventh 
on election day, far short of winning one of that district's 
five seats.  The failure of the two independents was widely 
seen as a confirmation of conventional wisdom that party 
backing is critical to mobilizing the vote, particularly in 
elections with low voter turnout.  In the cases of both Su 
and Cheng, large numbers of younger voters and moderate 
swing-voters, who were among their strongest supporters, 
apparently sat out the election. 
 
4.  (C) By contrast, leading Non-partisan Solidarity Union 
(NPSU) candidates in Penghu (incumbent Lin Bin-kun) and 
Pingtung (incumbent Tsai Hao) Counties both won easily. 
Unlike the independents in Kaohsiung City, Lin and Tsai are 
long-standing local political figures with deep pockets and 
well-developed political networks.  Both are widely believed 
to have links to organized crime organizations and have been 
linked to corruption scandals. 
 
PFP Candidates With Surprise Wins in the Deep Green South 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
5.  (C) The PFP did surprisingly well in Southern Taiwan, the 
traditional base of the Pan-Green.  PFP wins, however, appear 
more a reflection of individual candidate appeal and of 
better nomination strategy, than an indicator that the South 
is becoming less "Green."  In Tainan City, PFP candidate Kao 
Si-po surprised most observers with a strong win in one of 
Taiwan's "Greenest" cities.  Kao, the 37-year-old son of KMT 
at-large legislator Kao Yu-jen, ran an unorthodox campaign 
that downplayed his PFP affiliation and targeted young people 
with activist campaign events replete with pop music. 
Despite the low voter turnout, especially among young people, 
Kao's approach paid off in his third-place finish.  More 
surprisingly, Kao managed to win without doing what the KMT 
most feared -- undermining the two KMT candidates in the 
race.  While the KMT candidates also won, Kao's strong finish 
pushed the sole TSU candidate to seventh among those vying 
for Tainan's six LY seats.  Kao benefitted from being the 
only PFP candidate; in 2001 the PFP had split its votes 
between two candidates, both of whom just missed winning. 
Kao also likely benefitted from his family connections -- 
besides being the son of an old guard KMT figure, Kao is also 
married to Jessica Chou, a key aide to Taipei Mayor Ma 
Ying-jeou, and his sister is married to  Taoyuan's KMT 
Magistrate, Chu Li-lun. 
 
6.  (C) The PFP also did well in Kaohsiung City, where its 
two candidates, both seen as competitive but falling behind 
in late public opinion polls, won convincingly.  In 
Kaohsiung's northern district, PFP Policy Director, Chang 
Hsien-yao, won easily despite widespread criticism that he 
was a "carpetbagger" who moved to Kaohsiung only to run in 
the LY race.  As in Tainan City, Chang benefited from an 
improved PFP strategy in Kaohsiung over that of 2001, when 
the PFP had spread its votes evenly in Kaohsiung's northern 
district, home to a large number of retired military, among 
three candidates.  In Kaohsiung's southern district, the sole 
PFP candidate, Chou-yi, also easily won re-election, despite 
a poor showing in pre-election polls and a poor image 
stemming from his involvement in violent protests following 
the March 2004 presidential election.  Both Pan-Blue and 
Pan-Green officials had told AIT/K before the election that 
Chou-yi had arranged massive vote buying through local 
gambling syndicates, but it remains unclear whether the 
allegations are true. 
 
Pan-Green Vote Allocation Uneven; TSU Takes the Hits 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
7.  (C) Publicly announced Pan-Green efforts to allocate 
votes among candidates in Southern Taiwan proved highly 
uneven, with TSU candidates suffering in most cases.  In 
Kaohsiung's Northern District, vote allocation between three 
DPP and one TSU candidate apparently worked, with all four 
being elected, despite predictions that the TSU candidate 
would lose.  In Kaohsiung's southern district, however, it 
appears so many votes shifted to a DPP candidate, Huang 
Chao-hui, identified before the election as struggling, that 
he ended up garnering so many votes that another DPP 
incumbent, Tang Jin-chuan, unexpectedly lost.  In Kaohsiung 
County, DPP vote allocation helped ensure all five of its 
candidates won re-election.  However, the DPP had refused to 
share vote allocation with the TSU, arguing -- correctly as 
it turned out -- that the TSU should have nominated only one 
candidate instead of two.  As a result, both candidates lost 
in a surprise setback for the TSU. 
 
DPP Luck Holds Seats in Chen's Home County 
------------------------------------------ 
 
8.  (C) On a straight vote in Tainan County, the DPP would 
have lost one seat had it not been for election rules 
requiring a female winner in districts of a certain size. 
While four of the DPP's five candidates in Tainan won easily, 
the fifth, Ye Yi-jin, lost by 800 votes to a KMT candidate, 
Guo Tian-cai.  However, since none of the other four DPP, two 
KMT and one independent winning candidates were women, Guo 
was skipped over and the final of Tainan County's eight LY 
seats was awarded to the DPP's Ye. 
 
Comment:  Outcome in the South Not a Referendum on Policy 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
9.  (C) Despite widespread media debate as to what the 
election outcome says about Taiwan voters' views of the Chen 
Administration, few of our interlocutors saw the LY election 
in "national" terms.  Instead, local party officials 
emphasized to AIT/K that each district and each candidate 
presented a different set of dynamics, with party affiliation 
only significant in terms of access to resources and voter 
mobilization.  Voter allocation, which many had expected to 
be key to either side's victory, proved to be highly uneven 
and unpredictable.  Overall, the only factor that all of our 
interlocutors agreed was decisive was voter turnout.  The 
even-lower-than-expected 59 percent turnout seemed to leave 
all parties' strategies in a mess, with none particularly 
satisfied that the election had played out the way it had 
expected.  Overall, the results in the South were consistent 
with expectations that neither side would pick up seats. 
However, within the individual districts, each party will be 
spending time trying to figure out what happened and why. 
 
Forden 
PAAL