US embassy cable - 04TAIPEI3969

UNCLAS TAIPEI 003969 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - 
ROBERT PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Domestic Politics, Foreign Policy 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: TAIWAN'S LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS 
 
 
A) "U.S. Words Matter in Taiwan" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification English-language 
"China Post" editorialized (12/14): 
 
"The surprise outcome of Saturday's legislative 
elections, blocking the pro-independence President Chen 
Shui-bian's bid to control the legislature, is a relief 
for Beijing, Washington and Taiwan's neighbors. . 
 
"It is easy to conclude that the results were `an upset 
win for the opposition,' `a setback for Chen' and `most 
people favor status quo.'  And it is also convenient to 
say that under Chen's dictatorship, the green group's 
campaign obviously had overplayed its hand, ignoring 
the people's wishes for stability and harmony and 
pushing more boldly its anti-China platforms. 
 
"But the electorate's support for the blue group could 
not have increased if Washington had not sent timely 
and blunt warnings against Chen's provocative rhetoric. 
. 
 
"Obviously, voters chose to heed America's caution and 
not to rewrite history.  Polls show 2.2 million voters 
who had supported his re-election bid in March changed 
their minds or simply stayed away from the ballot box. 
But the opposition's majority of two is too slim to 
check the all-powerful presidential office, promising 
prolonged political instability. 
 
"Cross-strait peace will depend on Washington 
restraining Taipei, Beijing being less assertive, and 
on the prudence of Taiwan's people who already have 
freedom and de facto independence and apparently aren't 
willing to gamble for de jure independence merely as a 
gesture of defiance." 
 
B) "New Poll Deals Chen a Serious Blow" 
 
Osman Tseng of the conservative, pro-unification, 
English-language "China Post" noted (12/13): 
 
"The results of the just ended Saturday legislative 
election delivered many important messages.  Among them 
is a revelation that proves to us incorrect a current 
widely held perception:  The ideology of independence, 
or Taiwanese nationalism, has acquired such widespread 
popular support that it now has become the mainstream 
political faith in Taiwan. . 
 
"That a greater portion of the voters chose to support 
the pro-status quo `pan-blue' suggests that these 
people, instead of backing the independence cause, 
prefer to see Taiwan continuing to preserve its current 
political standing. . 
 
"With a renewed mandate, the opposition alliance could 
provide stronger checks on the Chen administration, 
necessitated by the fact that the government team has 
become increasingly unresponsive. . 
 
"The Saturday legislative poll in a sense was a no- 
confidence against Chen.  . The refusal of the voters 
to answer to Chen's calls and give him control of the 
lawmaking body was a serious blow to him.  Without the 
backing of the legislature, it would become even more 
difficult, if not impossible, for him to enact a new 
Constitution by a referendum.  His recently launched 
name-rectification plan and the broader de-sinicization 
campaign being carried out by his administration can be 
expected to face even stronger objections from the re- 
elected Legislature, to be installed in February. ." 
 
KEEGAN