US embassy cable - 02HARARE201

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000201 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AF; ALSO FOR AF/S 
 
USAID/W FOR AFR/SA HOWARD, WILLIAMS AND HAGELMAN; AFR/SD 
FOR WHELAN; BHR/FFP FOR GEORTZ; BHR/OFDA FOR BRYAN AND 
MARX 
 
GENEVA PLEASE PASS TO UNOCHA, IFRC 
 
ROME PLEASE PASS FODAG 
PRETORIA PLEASE PASS TO USDA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, EAGR, EAID, ZI 
SUBJECT: UNRESREP PAINTS BLEAK PICTURE OF THE 
SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE 
 
 
THIS MESSAGE IS UNCLASSIFIED BUT SENSITIVE AND SHOULD BE 
HANDLED ACCORDINGLY; NOT SUITABLE FOR INTERNET 
DISSEMINATION. 
 
1.  (SBU) SUMMARY.  AT THE INVITATION OF UNDP RESREP 
VICTOR ANGELO, THE DONOR COMMUNITY HELD ITS FIRST 
COORDINATING MEETING OF 2002 AT THE UNDP OFFICES. 
ANGELO, WHO NORMALLY SEEKS TO INTERPRET EVENTS IN A 
POSITIVE LIGHT, WAS PARTICULARLY DOWNBEAT.  ON 
ELECTIONS, HE SAID THAT THERE NO LONGER APPEARS TO BE 
ANY ROLE FOR THE UN.  ON THE LAND ISSUE, THE UNDP REPORT 
REMAINS UNCLEARED ON THE UNSYG'S DESK.  IN THE MEANTIME, 
THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR OF ZIMBABWE IS LURCHING TOWARD 
DISASTER.  THE RELATED HUMANITARIAN RELIEF INITIATIVE IS 
OFF THE GROUND BUT FAR BEHIND THE CURVE IN BRINGING IN 
ADEQUATE FOOD STOCKS IN TIME TO AVOID SHORTAGES.  ABOUT 
THE ONLY GOOD NEWS WAS THAT, AFTER INITIAL DALLYING, GOZ 
EXPERTS HAVE GIVEN AN 8,400 MT SHIPMENT OF U.S.-SOURCE 
FORTIFIED CORN MEAL (FCM) IN DAR ES SALAAM A CLEAN BILL 
OF PHYTOSANITARY HEALTH.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (U) AFTER INTRODUCING THE NEWLY ARRIVED UN 
HUMANITARIAN AFFAIRS OFFICER AND DISTRIBUTING THE 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00201  01 OF 03  221340Z 
UNSYG'S STATEMENT ON ZIMBABWE, ANGELO LAUNCHED INTO A 
DESCRIPTION OF WHERE THINGS STAND, FROM HIS PERSPECTIVE. 
 
--------- 
ELECTIONS 
--------- 
 
3.  (U) ANGELO HAD NO GOOD NEWS ON THIS FRONT.  HE SAID 
THAT THE CONTROVERSIAL AMENDMENTS TO THE ELECTORAL LAW 
HAD BEEN FURTHER AMENDED BUT WERE STILL FLAWED.  THE 
DRAFT BILL WOULD BE REINTRODUCED AS SOON AS PARLIAMENT 
CONVENED (AS HAS REPORTEDLY HAPPENED).  THE REGISTRAR 
GENERAL HAS PULLED BACK AN EARLIER REQUEST TO UNDP TO 
SUPPLY TRANSLUCENT BALLOT BOXES.  THE UN IS VERY 
CONCERNED ABOUT THE LACK OF PLANNING FOR VOTER EDUCATION 
IN RURAL AREAS, AS WELL AS TRAINING FOR CIVIL SERVANTS 
THAT WILL PRESUMABLY SERVE AS ELECTION MONITORS.  THE 
NUMBER OF MOBILE VOTING STATIONS UNDER DISCUSSION WAS 
WORRISOME, AND THE LACK OF OPPOSITION ACCESS TO PUBLIC 
MEDIA IS UNCHANGED. 
 
4. (SBU) ANGELO SAID THAT HE HAD STRESSED TO THE GOZ 
INTERLOCUTORS THAT THERE WERE MEANINGFUL ELECTORAL 
STANDARDS THE GOZ COULD ADOPT, INCLUDING THOSE OF SADC- 
PF, AND THAT INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS SHOULD BE INVITED 
WELL IN ADVANCE OF VOTING.  HE CONFIRMED THAT THE UN HAS 
NOT YET BEEN INVITED TO OBSERVE AND ADDED THAT IT WAS 
TOO LATE TO BECOME INVOLVED EVEN IF AN INVITATION WERE 
FORTHCOMING.  ON THE QUESTION OF NATIONAL OBSERVERS, HE 
SAID THAT THE NUMBER 16,000 HAS BEEN BANDIED ABOUT.  THE 
KEY TO ACTUAL NUMBERS WOULD BE THE FEE CHARGED, SINCE 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00201  01 OF 03  221340Z 
THE HIGHER THE FEE IMPOSED, THE FEWER THE OBSERVERS. 
 
-------------- 
THE LAND ISSUE 
-------------- 
 
5.  (SBU) ANGELO ANNOUNCED THAT THE REPORT FROM THE 
DECEMBER UNDP LAND MISSION HASS NOT BEEN "POLITICALLY" 
CLEARED BY THE UNSYG, AND THUS HE COULD NOT DISCUSS 
THIS.  ANGELO ADDED THAT HE EXPECTED THE REPORT TO COME 
OUT AT THE END OF JANUARY.  HE SAID THAT THE ONE FINDING 
HE COULD SHARE WAS THAT THE PRESENT PROCESS OF LAND 
REFORM IS NOT SUSTAINABLE -- IT MUST BE REVISITED.  IF 
IMPLEMENTED AS NOW PLANNED, THE "LAND REFORM" WOULD 
REQUIRE GOZ FINANCING OF ZIMBABWE DOLLARS 80 BILLION 
ANNUALLY OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS, A BUDGETARY 
IMPOSSIBILITY. 
 
6.  (SBU) AFTER REVIEWING THE GLOBAL NUMBER OF ARTICLE 5 
AND ARTICLE 8 LAND ACQUISITION NOTICES ISSUED, ANGELO 
OBSERVED THAT THE 55,000 A2 APPLICATIONS APPROVED (FOR 
INDIGENOUS COMMERCIAL FARMERS) WAS MISLEADING, SINCE 
ONLY 10,260 OF THESE HAD RECEIVED LAND.  HE TERMED 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
                           UNCLASSIFIED     PTO8196 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00201  02 OF 03  221341Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AGRE-00  AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  USNW-00 
      DODE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   OIGO-00  UTED-00 
      FDRE-01  VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    VCE-00   NSAE-00 
      OIC-02   IRM-00   SS-00    TEST-00  DSCC-00  DRL-02   NFAT-00 
      SAS-00     /005W 
                  ------------------5B2D84  221341Z /38 
P 221332Z JAN 02 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0756 
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY 
USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 
 
UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 000201 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AF; ALSO FOR AF/S 
 
USAID/W FOR AFR/SA HOWARD, WILLIAMS AND HAGELMAN; AFR/SD 
FOR WHELAN; BHR/FFP FOR GEORTZ; BHR/OFDA FOR BRYAN AND 
MARX 
 
GENEVA PLEASE PASS TO UNOCHA, IFRC 
 
ROME PLEASE PASS FODAG 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00201  02 OF 03  221341Z 
 
PRETORIA PLEASE PASS TO USDA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, EAGR, EAID, ZI 
SUBJECT: UNRESREP PAINTS BLEAK PICTURE OF THE 
SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE 
 
REPORTS IN THE GOZ PRESS OF HAVING SEIZED MORE THAN 
30,000 MT OF MAIZE "A LIE."  THE ACTUAL FIGURE WAS NEAR 
10,000 MT, AS THE GRAIN MARKETING BOARD AGENTS HAD 
DISCOVERED FAR LESS HOLDINGS ON COMMERCIAL FARMS THAN 
ANTICIPATED.  ANGELO SAID THAT THE GOZ HAD PUT A LEGAL 
VENEER ON THE SEIZURES BY ISSUING VIRTUALLY UNNOTICED ON 
DECEMBER 28 STATUTORY INSTRUMENT 387 OF 2001.  THIS 
REQUIRED ALL COMMERCIAL PRODUCERS OF MAIZE/WHEAT IN THE 
NAME OF NATIONAL INTEREST TO DELIVER THESE CEREALS FOR 
SALE TO THE GMB WITHIN FOURTEEN DAYS OF HARVESTING. 
ANGELO SAID THAT THE GMB CLAIM OF HOLDING A 50,000 MT 
STOCK WAS PROBABLY UNFOUNDED.  THERE WAS PROBABLY ENOUGH 
GRAIN FOR 15 DAYS OF TOTAL CONSUMPTION COUNTRYWIDE, NOT 
COUNTING THE NEEDS OF LIVESTOCK. 
 
7.  (SBU) ANGELO SHARED SOME DRAMATIC FIGURES ON THE 
DECLINE IN PRODUCTION.  TOTAL MAIZE PRODUCTION FOR THIS 
YEAR MIGHT BE LESS THAN ONE MILLION TONS, OR 
APPROXIMATELY HALF OF ZIMBABWE'S REQUIREMENT.  DESPITE 
OPTIMISTIC PREDICTIONS THAT TOBACCO PRODUCTION WOULD 
REACH 150,000 MT, THE UN PROJECTS A 30-40% SHORTFALL AND 
AN EVEN GREATER FOREX CRUNCH.  BECAUSE GRAIN STOCKS 
INTENDED FOR LIVESTOCK IS BEING SEIZED, FARMERS HAVE 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00201  02 OF 03  221341Z 
REDUCED THEIR HERDS BY AN ESTIMATED 40-45 PERCENT.  THE 
NUMBERS FOR POULTRY AND SWINE, WHICH CANNOT BE TURNED 
OUT TO PASTURE, ARE EVEN STARKER.  ANGELO SCOFFED AT 
REPORTS THAT THE GOZ HAD BROKERED GRAIN PURCHASES IN THE 
AMERICAS.  HE SAID THEY ARE TRYING TO IMPORT 50,000 MT 
FROM SOUTH AFRICA THANKS TO A BUSINESSMAN WITH CLOSE 
LINKS TO MUGABE WHO HAS OFFERED TO FINANCE THE PURCHASE. 
ANGELO SAID THAT THE BUSINESSMAN HAS NO EXPERIENCE IN 
THIS AREA AND THAT THE LONG DELIVERY TIME -- THE 
RAILWAYS ARE CONGESTED AND EACH TRUCK CAN HAUL ONLY A 35 
MT LOAD -- MEANS THAT IT WILL TAKE 10 TO 15 WEEKS TO 
DELIVER ANY APPRECIABLY AMOUNT. 
 
8.  (U) THE SITUATION FOR COMMERCIAL FARM WORKERS IS 
ALSO WORSENING.  ANGELO SAID THAT A MINIMUM OF 5,570 
FAMILIES HAVE BEEN DISPOSSESSED SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 
DECEMBER, WITH THE ACTUAL FIGURE POSSIBLY REACHING 
10,000.  MOST HAD BECOME UTTERLY DESTITUTE. 
 
9.  (SBU) ANGELO STRESSED THAT THE UN BELIEVES THERE IS 
STILL TIME FOR THE RIGHT POLICIES TO YIELD A RAPID TURN 
AROUND.  THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR ESPECIALLY WOULD REACT 
RAPIDLY TO POLICY CHANGE.  HE SAID THAT THE PRESENT 
CROPPING SEASON WOULD BE A BUST, BUT EVEN THE NATIONAL 
CATTLE HERD COULD BE RESTORED TO NORMAL LEVELS WITHIN 
THREE YEARS IF THE RIGHT POLICIES ARE PUT IN PLACE.  HE 
CONCLUDED THAT IF THERE IS NO POLICY CHANGE, HOWEVER, 
ECONOMIC COLLAPSE COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS NEXT MAY. 
 
---------------------- 
HUMANITARIAN SITUATION 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00201  02 OF 03  221341Z 
---------------------- 
 
10.  (U) ANGELO SAID THAT THE WFP HAS BEGUN TO TAKE 
DELIVERIES OF 6,400 MT OF MAIZE FROM SOUTH AFRICA TO 
ADDRESS THE NEEDS OF THE MOST VULNERABLE.  HE SAID THAT 
"ANOTHER DONOR" (THE U.S.) HAS DELIVERED AN ADDITIONAL 
8,400 MT OF MAIZE MEAL TO DAR ES SALAAM.  HE FAULTED THE 
GOZ FOR DRAGGING ITS FEET BUT SAID THAT HE WAS PLEASED 
TO ANNOUNCE THAT TWO GOZ EXPERTS, FLOWN TO DAR ES SALAAM 
ON UN TICKETS, HAD INSPECTED THE CORN MEAL AND GIVEN IT 
A CLEAN BILL OF HEALTH.  ANGELO EXPECTED AN IMPORT 
PERMIT TO BE ISSUED LATER THE SAME DAY AND SAID THAT THE 
FOOD WOULD IMMEDIATELY START MOVING TO LUSAKA BY RAIL, 
THEN TRUCKED INTO ZIMBABWE FOR DISTRIBUTION.  THE FIRST 
DELIVERIES WERE EXPECTED IN MID-FEBRUARY.  UNDP HAD 
RECEIVED SOME MONEY AND OTHER PLEDGES, BUT THESE FELL 
FAR SHORT OF THE APPEAL. 
 
--------------- 
Q AND A SESSION 
--------------- 
 
-- (U) THE U.S. DCM OBSERVED THAT ANGELO HAD NOT 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
                           UNCLASSIFIED     PTO8197 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00201  03 OF 03  221341Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AGRE-00  AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  USNW-00 
      DODE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   OIGO-00  UTED-00 
      FDRE-01  VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    VCE-00   NSAE-00 
      OIC-02   IRM-00   SS-00    TEST-00  DSCC-00  DRL-02   NFAT-00 
      SAS-00     /005W 
                  ------------------5B2D88  221341Z /38 
P 221332Z JAN 02 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0757 
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY 
USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 
 
UNCLAS SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 000201 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AF; ALSO FOR AF/S 
 
USAID/W FOR AFR/SA HOWARD, WILLIAMS AND HAGELMAN; AFR/SD 
FOR WHELAN; BHR/FFP FOR GEORTZ; BHR/OFDA FOR BRYAN AND 
MARX 
 
GENEVA PLEASE PASS TO UNOCHA, IFRC 
 
ROME PLEASE PASS FODAG 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00201  03 OF 03  221341Z 
 
PRETORIA PLEASE PASS TO USDA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, EAGR, EAID, ZI 
SUBJECT: UNRESREP PAINTS BLEAK PICTURE OF THE 
SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE 
 
PROVIDED ANY PROJECTION FOR THE 2002 WHEAT HARVEST, A 
STAPLE FOODSTUFF IN URBAN AREAS.  ANGELO REPLIED THAT 
THE FIGURE WAS FUZZY, BUT THE REALITY WAS THAT THERE WAS 
VIRTUALLY NO LAND PREPARATION TAKING PLACE ON COMMERCIAL 
FARMS, THE MAJOR SOURCE OF WHEAT PRODUCTION. 
 
-- (U) THE EU DELEGATE ASKED A) THE LOCATION OF 
DISPLACED FARM WORKERS B) HOW LONG THE WFP FOOD STOCKS 
WOULD LAST AND C) HOW SECURE WAS THE DISTRIBUTION. 
ANGELO SAID THAT IT WAS HARD TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE 
ALL THE DISPOSSESSED FARM WORKERS WERE.  THE WFP 
REPRESENTATIVE SAID THAT WFP DISTRIBUTIONS WOULD COVER 
TWO MONTHS OF ASSISTANCE TO THE MOST VULNERABLE ONLY. 
HE ADMITTED THAT THE DISTRIBUTION WAS A TRICKY EXERCISE. 
THE WFP HAD ORGANIZED WORKSHOPS TO TEACH IMPLEMENTING 
PARTNERS HOW TO DETERMINE BENEFICIARY SELECTION.  HE 
EXPRESSED FULL CONFIDENCE THAT WFP IS FULLY IN CONTROL 
OF THE DISTRIBUTION AND MONITORING PHASES. 
 
-- (U) THE AUSTRALIAN HIGH COMMISSIONER NOTED THAT 
JOURNALISTS FROM AUSTRALIAN PUBLIC RADIO HAD BEEN 
REFUSED VISAS TO VISIT ZIMBABWE.  HE READ OFF PLUMMETING 
GRAIN PRODUCTION STATISTICS, SAID THAT IN CANBERRA'S 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00201  03 OF 03  221341Z 
VIEW THE CONDITIONS FOR FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS DO NOT 
EXIST, AND SAID THAT AUSTRALIA WAS HOLDING BACK ON ANY 
RESPONSE TO THE HUMANITARIAN APPEAL. 
 
-- (U) THE UK HIGH COMMISSIONER SAID THAT GOZ 
ACCUSATIONS THAT HMG, WESTMINSTER FOUNDATION, OR BBC ARE 
FUNDING OR SUPPORTING SW AFRICA BROADCASTS ARE 
UNFOUNDED.  HE ADDED THAT THESE BROADCASTS ORIGINATE IN 
LONDON AND ARE NOT INCITING OF VIOLENCE, THEN GOT A 
LAUGH BY INVITING HIS COLLEAGUES TO TUNE IN AT 6145 ON 
THEIR SW DIAL.         _ 
 
SULLIVAN 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
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