US embassy cable - 04ANKARA6946

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 006946 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, TU, IZ 
SUBJECT: TURKEY CONCERNED ABOUT KIRKUK ELECTION DELAY AND 
POSSIBLE KRG REFERENDUM ON INDEPENDENCE; VISITING KDP 
OFFICIAL (TO US) LINKS THE TWO 
 
REF: A. BAGHDAD 2092 
 
     B. BAGHDAD 2102 
     C. BAGHDAD 2137 
 
Classified By: DCM Robert S. Deutsch for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1. (C) MFA Director General for the Middle East called in DCM 
Dec. 14 to express concern about three issues: the KDP flag 
flying over the Iraqi customs building at the Turkey/Iraq 
border, a possible delay in Governorate elections in Kirkuk, 
and reports that the KRG may hold a referendum on Kurdish 
independence on Jan. 30.  DCM responded that we have pushed 
the Kurdish leadership and IIG on our view that elections 
should be held on time everywhere in the country.  A visiting 
senior KDP official told us Dec. 13 that the KRG might hold 
such a referendum if the IIG does not take Kurdish concerns 
about Kirkuk "seriously."  We cannot evaluate from Ankara 
whether the Iraqi Kurds would in fact go through with such a 
referendum, but such a vote would be hugely difficult for the 
GOT to swallow.  End summary. 
 
2. (C) MFA Director General for the Middle East called in DCM 
on Dec. 14 to discuss Iraq.  Celikkol reported briefly on 
Turkish outreach efforts to Sunni parties in Iraq for 
upcoming elections (septel), then raised three issues of 
concern to Turkey: the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) flag 
being raised at the Turkish/Iraqi border, Kurdish demands to 
delay governorate council elections in Kirkuk, and possible 
Kurdish plans for a de facto referendum on independence. 
 
KDP Flag Flying at Habur 
------------------------ 
 
3. (C) Celikkol reported that the Iraqi flag over the Iraqi 
border customs building at the Habur Gate had recently been 
removed and replaced with the KDP flag.  He stated that 
Turkey firmly believes that the flag should be Iraqi. 
Celikkol added that the Turkish embassy in Baghdad has raised 
this issue with IIG authorities. 
 
Election Delay in Kirkuk? 
------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Celikkol said that Turkey is concerned about recent 
attempts by the KDP and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan 
(PUK) to delay Kirkuk Governorate Council elections.  He 
emphasized that Turkey believes elections should take place 
everywhere in the country on time. 
 
5. (C) DCM responded that we share Turkey's position, and we 
have pressed hard on this issue in recent weeks both in 
Baghdad and Kirkuk with IIG leaders and Kurdish leaders.  We 
also understand that the Independent Election Commission of 
Iraq (IECI) has confirmed that these elections shall take 
place in Kirkuk on Jan. 30. 
 
Kurdish Referendum on Independence? 
----------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) Celikkol said that Turkey has seen reports--though 
perhaps only rumors--that Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) 
leaders are planning for a "fourth ballot box" (i.e., in 
addition to boxes for national, KRG, and Governorate 
elections) where Kurds would vote on whether they would 
prefer to break away from Iraq and become an independent 
state.  While apparently Kurdish leaders would portray such a 
vote as only a non-binding measure of public opinion, 
Celikkol warned that such a step would amount to a referendum 
on independence.  "This would be very unacceptable," Celikkol 
stated.  Celikkol said this was an unconfirmed report, and 
that he was seeking clarification.  DCM responded that this 
would be news to us, and that we would pass this information 
on to Baghdad and Washington. 
 
Visiting KDP Official to Emboff: IIG 
Must Take Us Seriously... 
------------------------------------ 
 
7. (C) On Dec. 13, PolMilOff met with Safeen Dizayee, head of 
the KDP's international bureau and former KDP representative 
in Ankara.  PolMilOff repeated USG position (per reftels) 
that we oppose delaying the elections in Kirkuk, and urged 
that the KDP and PUK consider options that would allow them 
to agree to go forward with elections Jan. 30.  Dizayee 
responded that progress to solve the Kirkuk issue under 
Article 58 of the TAL has been glacial, and complained 
especially that the Iraqi Property Claims Commission process 
"has been a total failure."  Dizayee also contended that 
local IECI officials have denied to most Kurdish IDPs the 
right to vote in Kirkuk; he claimed the IECI is dominated by 
non-Kurds and has not treated the Kurds fairly. 
 
...If They Don't, Referendum Is Possible 
---------------------------------------- 
 
8. (C) Dizayee reported that within the next few days Jalal 
Talabani of the PUK and Nechirvan Barzani of the KDP would 
travel to Baghdad to discuss the Kirkuk election problem with 
senior IIG leaders, including PM Allawi  (NOTE: Dizayee said 
the press of time and security considerations may dictate 
that the Kurdish leaders may not be able to travel to 
Baghdad; if not, they will conduct their consultations by 
telephone.  END NOTE.)  Dizayee emphasized that the Kurdish 
leaders will demand that IIG leaders "take seriously" Kurdish 
concerns about Kirkuk, but stopped short of saying that the 
election timing issue was non-negotiable.  When PolMilOff 
asked Dizayee what the consequences would be if Kurdish 
leaders still were to insist on delayed elections in Kirkuk 
but the vote were to go forward anyway, he said one response 
might be to hold a referendum in the Kurdish areas on 
independence.  Dizayee emphasized that Iraq's Kurds have 
compromised a great deal for the sake of a unified Iraq. 
 
Comment: A Credible Threat? 
--------------------------- 
 
9. (C) It is possible that Dizayee (perhaps even unwittingly; 
he met us in a public setting) is the source of the Turks' 
information that the Kurds are considering a referendum on 
independence.  If not, however, we have two data points 
suggesting that this is on the Iraqi Kurds' minds.  It goes 
without saying that such a vote would draw a harsh reaction 
from Turkey, since it would be seen as a serious threat to 
Iraq's territorial integrity.  END COMMENT. 
 
10. (U) Baghdad minimize considered. 
EDELMAN