US embassy cable - 02HARARE200

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000200 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF A/S KANSTEINER AND DAS BELLAMY 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER 
 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/12 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ZI, NI 
SUBJECT: OBASANJO SHUTTLES TO ZIMBABWE, MEETS BOTH 
MUGABE AND TSVANGIRAI 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. 
REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  (C) NIGERIAN PRESIDENT OLUSEGUN OBASANJO MADE A 
WHIRLWIND VISIT TO ZIMBABWE, ARRIVING JANUARY 20 AT 
8:00 P.M. AND DEPARTING AT 3:00 A.M. THE NEXT DAY.  HE 
MET WITH BOTH PRESIDENT ROBERT MUGABE AND THE MDC'S 
MORGAN TSVANGIRAI.  ACCORDING TO THE NIGERIAN EMBASSY, 
OBASANJO MET ALONE WITH MUGABE.  ALTHOUGH SPECIFIC 
DETAILS OF THEIR CONVERSATION ARE NOT AVAILABLE, THE 
NIGERIANS SAID  HE RAISED THE ABUJA AGREEMENT, THE NEED 
TO ENSURE A LEVEL AND NON-VIOLENT ELECTORAL PLAYING 
FIELD, AND THE PRESENCE OF INTERNATIONAL ELECTION 
OBSERVERS FROM THE EU, COMMONWEALTH AND OTHER ENTITIES. 
OBASANJO LATER TOLD TSVANGIRAI HE WAS MORE OPTIMISTIC 
AFTER TALKING WITH MUGABE, WHO HAD "PROVIDED 
ASSURANCES" ON KEY ISSUES OF CONCERN.  THE MDC 
APPRECIATES OBASANJO'S INVOLVEMENT BUT EXPRESSED 
DISAPPOINTMENT THAT HE APPEARS TO HAVE ACCEPTED 
MUGABE'S PROMISES AT FACE VALUE.  END SUMMARY. 
 
ARRIVAL 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00200  01 OF 02  221336Z 
------- 
 
2.  (U) PRESIDENT OBASANJO AND HIS LARGE DELEGATION 
(WHICH INCLUDED FOREIGN MINISTCR LAMIDO AND SPECIAL 
ENVOY ON ZIMBABWE CHIEF SHONEKAN) WAS MET AT HARARE 
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT BY PRESIDENT MUGABE, INFORMATION 
MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO, AND A NUMBER OF OTHER RULING 
PARTY HEAVYWEIGHTS AT 8:00 P.M. ON JANUARY 20.  ALSO IN 
ATTENDANCE WERE SOME 2,000 ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS, MANY 
WEARING T-SHIRTS WITH OBASANJO'S PICTURE ON THE FRONT, 
CHANTING PRO ZANU-PP SLOGANS AND CARRYING PLACARDS 
DENOUNCING THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, 
AMONG OTHERS. 
 
MUGABE CONVERSATION 
------------------- 
 
3.  (C) ACCORDING TO MARTINS COBHAM, SENIOR COUNSELOR 
AT THE NIGERIAN HIGH COMMISSION, PRESIDENTS MUGABE AND 
OBASANJO HAD A TETE-A-TETE AFTER A STATE BANQUET IN THE 
VISITING PRESIDENT'S HONOR.  LAMIDO AND SHONEKAN 
REPORTEDLY COOLED THEIR HEELS DURING THE PRESIDENTIAL 
DISCUSSION.  COBHAM TOLD US HE UNDERSTOOD SECOND-HAND 
THAT OBASANJO HAD STRESSED TO MUGABE THE IMPORTANCE OF 
KEEPING THE ABUJA AGREEMENT ON TRACK, ENSURING A LEVEL 
PLAYING FIELD FOR THE ELECTIONS, AND INVITING 
INTERNATIONAL ELECTION OBSERVERS. (COMMENT: SINCE 
COBHAM WAS NOT PRESENT IN THE ONE-ON-ONE MEETING, WE 
SUSPECT HE WAS BASING HIS READOUT TO US ON THE REMARKS 
MADE BY THE TWO LEADERS TO JOURNALISTS AFTER THEIR 
CONVERSATION.  END COMMENT.) 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00200  01 OF 02  221336Z 
 
TSVANGIRAI 
 
SIPDIS 
---------- 
4. (C) OBASANJO SUBSEQUENTLY MET WITH TSVANGIRAI AND 
MDC SHADOW FOREIGN MINISTER TENDAI BITI FROM 1:10 A.M. 
TO 2:25 A.M. ON JANUARY 21.  BITI TOLD POLITICAL 
SECTION CHIEF THAT OBASANJO REPORTED THAT HE WAS MORE 
OPTIMISTIC AFTER HIS DISCUSSION WITH MUGABE.  THE 
ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT, ACCORDING TO OBASANJO, HAD 
PROVIDED ASSURANCES THAT VIOLENCE WOULD BE STOPPED AND 
THAT INTERNATIONAL ELECTION OBSERVERS WOULD BE ALLOWED 
IN-  BITI SAID HE AND TSVANGIRAI HAD DESCRIBED NUMEROUS 
PAST INSTANCES IN WHICH MUGABE HAS FAILED TO HONOR 
SIMILAR COMMITMENTS, AND THAT THEY STRONGLY ENCOURAGED 
OBASANJO TO JUDGE MUGABE ONLY BY HIS ACTIONS.  OBASANJO 
SAID  MUGABE HAD REJECTED OBASANJO'S SUGGESTION THAT HE 
MEET WITH TSVANGIRAI.  OBASANJO ASKED TSVANGIRAI FOR 
ASSURANCES THAT THERE WOULD BE NO "VINDICTIVENESS" 
AGAINST MUGABE IF THE MDC WINS THE MARCH CLECTION. 
BITI SAID TSVANGIRAI HAD REPLIED THAT THE LAW WOULD BE 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ9152 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00200  02 OF 02  221336Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DODE-00  WHA-00   DS-00 
      EAP-00   VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   VCE-00   M-00     NSAE-00 
      SSO-00   SS-00    DSCC-00  DRL-02   NFAT-00  SAS-00     /002W 
                  ------------------5B2C94  221336Z /38 
O 221327Z JAN 02 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0754 
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY 
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000200 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF A/S KANSTEINER AND DAS BELLAMY 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER 
 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00200  02 OF 02  221336Z 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/12 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ZI, NI 
SUBJECT: OBASANJO SHUTTLES TO ZIMBABWE, MEETS BOTH 
MUGABE AND TSVANGIRAI 
 
ALLOWED 
 TO TAKE ITS COURSE, AND STRESSED THE DIFFERENCE 
BETWEEN VINDICTIVENESS AND THE RULE OF LAW.  OVERALL, 
BITI EXPRESSED HIS "GRCAT DISAPPOINTMENT" WITH THE 
OBASANJO VISIT.  ALTHOUGH THE NIGERIAN PRESIDENT IS 
GENUINELY TRYING TO HELP, ACCORDING TO BITI, HE APPEARS 
TO BE UNDERESTIMATING WHAT MUGABE IS CAPABLE OF. 
 
5.  (C) BITI CONFIRMED THAT OBASANJO HAD, IN A JANUARY 
14 MEETING WITH TSVANGIRAI IN ABUJA, SAID HE WOULD URGE 
MUGABE TO STEP DOWN DURING THE HARARE VISIT.  (NOTE: 
ACCORDING TO TSVANGIRAI'S SPECIAL ASSISTANT, GANDI 
MUDZINGWA, WHO ATTENDED THE MEETING IN ABUJA, OBASANJO 
HAD ASKED WHETHER THE MDC WOULD SUPPORT A 
CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT SUPPORTING AN EXTENSION OF THE 
PRESIDENT'S MANDATE LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW ARRANGEMENT OF 
MUGABE'S DEPARTURE.)  BITI SAID OBASANJO DID NOT RAISE 
THIS ISSUE IN HIS JANUARY 21 MEETING WITH HIM AND 
TSVANGIRAI. 
 
SIPDIS 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
6. (C) CLEARLY, OBASANJO BROKERED NO BREAKTHROUGHS 
DURING HIS BRIEF VISIT.  WE CONTINUE TO BELIEVE, 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00200  02 OF 02  221336Z 
HOWEVER, THAT HIS PERSONAL INVOLVEMENT ON ZIMBABWE IS 
POSITIVE, IF ONLY BECAUSE OBASANJO IS ONE OF THE FEW 
PEOPLE WITH INFLUENCE OVCR MUGABE.  IF, AS REPORTED, 
THE NIGERIAN PRESIDENT FOCUSED HIS DISCUSSION WITH 
MUGABE ON VIOLENCE, ELECTORAL RULES AND OBSERVERS -- 
INSTEAD OF ON LAND, AS THE GOZ WOULD HAVE PREFERRED -- 
THE VISIT YIELDED SOME INCREMENTAL PROGRESS.  HOWEVER, 
IF THERE IS ANY HOPE OF MITIGATING FURTHER POLITICAL 
AND ECONOMIC DAMAGE IN ZIMBABWE, OBASANJO WILL NEED TO 
RATCHET UP THE PRESSURE, BY MAKING IT CLEAR TO MUGABE 
THAT HE WILL BE JUDGED ON HIS ACTIONS, NOT HIS 
PROMISES.  WE FOUND INTERESTING OBASANJO'S STATEMENT TO 
TSVANGIRAI IN ABUJA THAT HE PLANNED TO URGE MUGABE TO 
 
SIPDIS 
STEP DOWN, AN ISSUE HE EITHER DID NOT RAISE WITH HIS 
ZIMBABWEAN COUNTERPART OR DID NOT CHOOSE TO SHARE WITH 
TSVANGIRAI. 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SULLIVAN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
>