US embassy cable - 04PRETORIA5369

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 005369 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR AF/S B. NEULING AND T. CRAIG 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2014 
TAGS: KDEM, PHUM, PREL, SF, ZI 
SUBJECT: MOELETSI MBEKI CALLS ZIMBABWE A "LONG-TERM 
PROJECT"; URGES SUPPORT FOR MDC 
 
REF: JOHANNESBURG 527 
 
Classified By: Amb. Jendayi E. Frazer 
Reasons 1.4(b) and (d) 
 
1. (C) Summary.  Moeletsi Mbeki, South African political 
commentator and brother of President Thabo Mbeki, urged the 
international community to stop "chasing" Mugabe's retirement 
and view Zimbabwe as a "long-term project."  He called for 
increased international support for the MDC and Zimbabwean 
civil society.  In his view, the MDC represents a new type of 
political party in Africa -- non-racial, non-ethnic -- and 
thus is a threat to the old style African political parties 
and also a valuable asset in rebuilding sub-Saharan Africa. 
Mbeki suggested that the recent election of Joyce Mujuru as 
Vice President is a positive sign that could lead to 
Mugabe,s retirement in the future since Mugabe trusts her 
and her husband.  Mugabe made a big mistake by deporting 
COSATU, Mbeki argued, because its two million members are now 
energized, although he did not believe this would alter South 
African policy in the short-term.  End Summary. 
 
2. (C) On December 7, 2004, U.S. Ambassador to Zimbabwe, 
Christopher Dell, and PolOff met with Moeletsi Mbeki, brother 
of President Thabo Mbeki and Executive Chairman of Endemol 
South Africa, a television production company.  Mbeki is also 
Deputy Chairperson of the South African Institute for 
International Affairs, a well-respected foreign policy think 
tank.  A prominent political commentator in his own right, 
Mbeki has been publicly and sharply critical of the 
Government of Zimbabwe in recent years.  Mbeki worked as a 
journalist in Zimbabwe from 1982-1990.  (Comment:  Mbeki is 
reportedly not particularly close to his brother the 
President.) 
 
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Observations on Zimbabwe Crisis 
------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) Discussing the political crisis in Zimbabwe, Mbeki 
suggested that the international community needs to view the 
country as a "long-term project."  He urged focus on building 
processes now to produce results in 10-15 years, not 
"chasing" Mugabe,s retirement. 
 
4. (C) Mbeki observed that civil society in Zimbabwe is quite 
weak and urged increased support for building a more robust 
civil society sector.  He noted that the MDC emerged so fast 
as a political force that it never engaged in the difficult 
and time-consuming work of organizing for a long-term 
struggle.  Comparing Zimbabwe to South Africa, Mbeki observed 
that the roots of civil society in South Africa go back to 
the early 19th century, particularly the black churches. 
During the anti-apartheid struggle, the entire society played 
a role -- the political parties, business, churches, 
academics and unions.  Zimbabwe does not have the same 
tradition.  The liberation in Zimbabwe resulted from the 
military actions of two armies, ZANLA and ZIPRA, not a 
broad-based movement.  (Comment: This interpretation 
seemingly exaggerates the significance of the military might 
of the liberation movements and underestimates the role of 
neighboring countries like Tanzania, Zambia, and Mozambique, 
the international community, and Zimbabwean churches, in 
pushing for a negotiated settlement.) 
 
--------------------------------- 
MDC Represents Future of Zimbabwe 
--------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Mbeki painted a positive picture of the Zimbabwe,s 
main opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change 
(MDC).  Mbeki claimed that the MDC represented the future of 
Zimbabwe; ZANU-PF is a "spent force."  In his view, the 
international community needs to focus on supporting the MDC. 
 (Comment: most South African commentators emphasize the 
weaknesses of the MDC and do not/not share Mbeki,s upbeat 
assessment.)  What MDC needs, Mbeki said, is state patron, 
just as the Soviet Union supported the ANC.  Mbeki suggested 
that the United Kingdom would be the most natural ally, 
despite the fact that Mugabe would use this against the MDC. 
Mbeki pointed out that Mugabe already labels the MDC a tool 
of imperialist Britain, so would have little to lose by an 
open identification with the U.K. 
 
6. (C) In Mbeki,s view, the MDC represented a new type of 
party in political Africa -- non-ethnic, non-racial -- a 
"mega-achievement."  The MDC is thus a valuable asset in 
rebuilding sub-Saharan Africa.  It also represents a threat 
to the old style, ethnic parties around the continent, 
including even the ANC.  In this vein, Mbeki observed that, 
for political reasons, the ANC likes having an opposition 
party, the Democratic Alliance, headed by a white person. 
 
7. (C) Mbeki pointed out several weaknesses in the MDC. 
First, they do not know how to ask for help, even from 
sympathetic African governments like Nigeria, Ghana or Kenya. 
 Second, the MDC should make private property rights a key 
part of their political platform, essentially using the land 
issue against Mugabe.  The MDC is afraid to do so because 
they fear being labeled defenders of white farmers.  Mbeki 
suggested this is short-sighted since Mugabe,s land policy 
also resulted in massive job losses for commercial 
farmworkers, a key core constituency for the MDC.  Finally, 
the MDC needs to mobilize the talented and huge constituency 
living in South Africa. 
 
----------------------- 
Recent ZANU-PF Congress 
----------------------- 
 
8. (C) Mbeki viewed the recent ZANU-PF party congress 
positively.  He said that the "Mujurus," Vice President Joyce 
Mujuru and her husband Solomon Mujuru, were not "Shona 
tribalists" like Mugabe or Parliamentary Speaker Mnangagwa. 
Mujuru,s election as Vice President might even encourage 
Mugabe to step down at some point in the future.  Mbeki 
speculated that Mugabe would retire only if he had total 
confidence that his successor would not turn on him.  The 
Mujurus have been loyal to Mugabe from the beginning, and he 
trusts them completely. 
 
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Expulsion of COSATU Mugabe's Big Mistake 
---------------------------------------- 
 
9. (C) Mbeki claimed that the expulsion of COSATU from 
Zimbabwe (see reftel) was Mugabe,s "biggest error."  The 
SAG,s reaction to the deportation -- suggesting that COSATU 
"got what it deserved" -- was upsetting to COSATU's two 
million members and will resonate politically in the future. 
However, Mbeki thought it unlikely that the SAG would change 
its Zimbabwe policy, even if pressure from COSATU grew. 
Mbeki speculated that the ANC political strategists believed 
(wrongly in his opinion) that they did not need active labor 
support to win future elections. 
 
10. (C) Mbeki also observed that most South Africans are not 
interested in foreign policy.  To them, Africa is a big 
headache, a source of illegal immigration and crime.  They 
see President Mbeki,s activities in Cote d,Ivoire, DRC and 
Burundi as nothing more than a "presidential hobby." 
 
11. (U) Ambassador Dell cleared on this message. 
FRAZER