US embassy cable - 04PRETORIA5359

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 005359 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SF, ELAB, PGOV, ECPS, ECON 
SUBJECT: TRI-PARTITE ALLIANCE INFIGHTING HEATS UP 
 
 
1.  (SBU)  Summary: Recent harsh and public disagreements 
between President Mbeki and the Congress of South African 
Trade Unions (COSATU) over Zimbabwe, Black Economic 
Empowerment, and COSATU's political role have highlighted 
long-simmering tensions within the ruling alliance.  In the 
near term, these tensions will likely dissipate as soon as 
cooler heads prevail.  Differences will become harder to 
reconcile in the future, however, when a younger generation 
of leaders, who lack cross-cutting allegiances and memories 
of the struggle, come to the fore.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (U)  Several issues over the past two months have 
fostered rancor between COSATU and the ANC.  First was the 
late October expulsion of a COSATU delegation from Zimbabwe. 
Rather than defend COSATU and its right to observe how 
Zimbabwe's political and economic situation has affected its 
sister labor organizations, President Mbeki condemned 
COSATU's trip as unsanctioned political adventurism and 
accused the organization of meddling in the political arena. 
A second area of contention was the government's early 
November announcement that it was awarding a 15% stake to a 
black empowerment consortium that included ANC heavyweight 
and spokesman Smuts Ngonyama as an advisor.  COSATU blasted 
the deal both out of opposition to the principle of 
privatizing Telkom's services but also because it reeked of 
political cronyism. 
 
3.  (U)  Rhetoric on both sides turned even more pointed 
after Archbishop Desmond Tutu's late November lecture in 
which he accused the President of fostering a culture of 
political sycophancy within the ANC and attacked Black 
Economic Empowerment for helping only a small black elite. 
COSATU Secretary General Zwelinzima Vavi echoed similar 
sentiments, leading Ngonyama to call Vavi "highly reckless 
and highly impetuous."  This in turn led COSATU to issue a 
public statement that the alliance is not working properly 
and assert that it has every right to participate in 
political discussions, with COSATU President Willie Madisha 
saying, "...we are not an extension of a political party.  We 
are an independent COSATU."  COSATU spokesmen meanwhile told 
the Consul General in Johannesburg and Laboff that they 
believed Ngonyama's dual status as ANC spokesman and 
principal beneficiary of the Telkom BEE deal may have added 
to the shrillness of the ANC's criticism and proved their 
contention that the mixing of politics with private business 
interests was not in the public interest.  Both sides say 
they are likely to meet soon to thrash out their differences, 
although no date has been set and the public arguments 
continue. 
 
4.  (U)  The third member of the alliance, the South African 
Communist Party (SACP) has largely been quiet in this debate, 
except for calling on both sides to settle their differences 
and lending support to COSATU for its Zimbabwe visit. 
However, earlier this week SACP Deputy Secretary General 
Jeremy Cronin confirmed that the party will consider 
proposals to mount independent electoral challenges rather 
than run its candidates under an ANC banner.  Cronin noted 
that while there were no guarantees that any proposals for 
autonomy would be adopted, the issue was a legitimate one to 
discuss and that there was nothing "dissident or inherently 
disloyal" about it. 
 
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PROMINENT ANC ACADEMIC SEES MORE SMOKE THAN FIRE 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
5.  (SBU)  Emboffs last week met with Raymond Suttner, an 
academic and longtime ANC insider, to discuss the latest 
cleavages in the alliance.  Suttner, a member of the SACP 
since 1971, spent nearly 10 years in prison during the 1970s 
and 1980s for his political activities as well as a 
significant portion of time underground.  After the ANC was 
unbanned, he was elected to the party's decisionmaking 
National Executive Committee in 1991.  He later served as a 
member of Parliament from 1994 to 1997 and then Ambassador to 
Sweden from 1997 until 2001.  Since that time he has focused 
largely on academic pursuits, publishing several articles 
about the history of the ANC and the alliance. 
 
6.  (SBU)  Although he claimed to be out of step with current 
goings-on within the alliance, Suttner brought up several 
salient points relating to the state of the alliance today. 
First and foremost, Suttner stated that while the ANC has 
always been committed to multipartyism and the concept of the 
alliance, the party (and Mbeki in particular) does not 
appreciate campaigns outside its structures, like COSATU's 
trip to Zimbabwe.  Such acts are viewed as politically 
undisciplined and fly in the face of the culture of 
cooperation and consensus that are key to alliance unity. 
Furthermore, while the alliance is ostensibly a partnership, 
the ANC clearly sees itself as first among equals, which 
exacerbates tensions with COSATU and the SACP. 
 
7.  (SBU)  Despite these tensions, however, Suttner thought 
the latest round of infighting, while noteworthy for its 
harsh rhetoric, was likely to be a tempest in a teapot. 
Suttner noted that senior members of the three organizations 
all have cross-cutting allegiances and identities-for 
example, a SACP member does not only view himself in those 
terms, but also takes into account relationships forged 
during the struggle while underground, in prison, or in a 
group like the United Democratic Front.  Older members who 
have these complex relationships are concerned about the 
state of the alliance and will likely work to ensure that 
this latest round of infighting does not escalate further. 
Besides, the three sides need one another-the ANC needs the 
membership base and left-wing credentials of its partners, 
while the SACP and COSATU rely on the ANC's political clout. 
Suttner was convinced that saner heads would prevail before 
something irreparable occurred. 
 
8.  (SBU)  Suttner's concern, however, was what happens once 
the older generation leaves the scene.  Many people, he said, 
are joining the ANC nowadays in large part for the internal 
connections that membership brings, such as jobs and 
contracts.  Few of these newcomers remember the struggle-era 
linkages that forged the alliance in the first place, and it 
is Suttner's worry that in the future, younger leaders will 
be more hesitant to compromise, potentially putting the 
alliance in grave danger.  Still, he thought such a situation 
was still a few years out in the future and that the alliance 
would in the meantime remain alive, if not as robust as it 
once was. 
 
9.  (SBU)  Comment: While COSATU is prepared to make peace 
with the ANC, it also has announced its intention of 
returning to Zimbabwe in late January to complete the 
fact-finding mission it aborted in October.  If the ANC 
decides not to support this visit, another spat is likely to 
occur.  Another disagreement may also happen within the next 
six months, when the Telkom shares currently held by the 
government workers' pension fund are to be sold to the BEE 
consortium.  Should the shares have declined in value, both 
COSATU and other trade unions representing the government 
workers are likely to criticize the SAG and ANC.  End Comment. 
FRAZER